Yes, quite! 

168h snowfest from the ECM , crazy output tonight 

850hPa temperature around -8c in the SE; 500-1,000hPa thickness values around 520.

........ and London's highest was today at 22 so I would throw much weight behind what they say!

T+192 shows high pressure building towards Scandi.

Well one to be precise,....... and 3 at the same point above 0C but we won't mention those as neither are likely!   The ensemble mean trend holding  reasonably in the -5C or just below range  which is promising

Not too shabby.  The ECM 12z and GEFS have balanced the output this afternoon!

UK view of the 850s at T+192: nationwide very cold.

Fascinating output tonight not sure who I believe but hope ECM is playing a blinder.

t850s here’s at that time point are about 11°C lower in the ECM than the GFS op at that time point. The GEFS mean is unsurprisingly more or less in the middle.

More variation on a theme and a lot to be decided.

-12s into Aberdeen on the ECM by 216hrs, might even drop the temperature below 5C chez Richard?

Looks like a slow sinker in the long term though, barring any retrogression.

As is often the case our chance of cold is linked to cold flooding into the US in a "pincer" movement!!  Certainly close to something here.

No, I believe the constant anger will keep things nice and warm locally

An interesting run, although I would doubt if the specifics would be like that when the time comes. Still the majority’s of output still says cold so all is to play for.

I do get the impression that somewhere in the UK is going to get a large dumping of snow before the month is out. I would not wager a bet to the location though!

ECM going for 10 widely and -12 @ 850 hpa in the central southern and south eastern areas by 240:

Not sure I agree with that, I think the Icelandic Low could be pushed SE under the block.

Hard to tell. 

The ECM makes me feel nervous! It is fascinating to see the proposed events unfold through the various models but my word it is on a knife edge at times! 

The progression of the system out of the US is key, on this run our hound just gets to the bend in time, failure to do so means carnage and a completely different outcome later on.

The troughing over Europe is very deep, and if the T240 comes to pass that Atlamtic energy would drop SE like the GFS 06Z.

Fantastic ECM run today with the 12z, but it makes me nervous too, on two counts - it is all finely balanced as you say and we have the other issue - the UKMO is not nearly as good.

I am not counting these ECM chickens yet - we have been burnt too many times by stellar output which then gets dropped on subsequent runs. The problem with the ECM is that its output relies on the behaviour of the LP riding up through the States - keep it west and we are in clover, let it come too far east and everything flattens across the Atlantic.

Yes! good example for those who bang on about  AH and the uk cant be cold -13 about 70 miles from Norfolk coast

Agreed - it's fine margins indeed on that run. Anything more progressive on that US storm could potentially block the pocket that the low pressure 8 ball has open on the disruption to the SSE. Let's see what the ENS can tell us.

All looking much as it has on the main models IMO - a generally cold theme with a reasonable chance of some milder interludes, more so for the south, and also a realistic chance of some even colder air at times from the east.

I'd happily side with this being a generally cold pattern, so rather than worrying too much if one cold shot fails, it'd just be a case of seeing how the next attempt goes. I don't think we're in one of those patterns where the LP track fundamentally alters the longer term pattern - short term it definitely could scupper a cold shot but long term I think things would revert back to a colder set up and it's then a case of more luck with the next attempt.

We do seem to be relying on LPs tracking over or near to the UK to drag the coldest air in, hence some of the runs and ens members bringing milder air in - small tweaks to the LP intensity and track having big short term impacts on the ground. Worth noting that just as a tweak one way can mean milder, a tweak the other can mean deep cold (at least for a while) as nicely demonstrated by this evenings ECM. At least with LP about there should be some precipitation about too, of one variety or another

Fun times if you like cold but with enough uncertainty to drag the mood down at times when the models back a slightly milder blip or outcome.

ECM Means look once again cold and easterly crazy stuff 

Something has to give soon?

Yes, can't argue with this ECM mean at 168.

At 216hrs the mean has the -8C isotherm across East Anglia.