The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2019 06:48:17

UKMO looks primed as early as day 6!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
10 January 2019 06:52:05
Are you referring to the outgoing GFS op model? Or in the new GFSP? The latter is remarkable and the ensembles are steady. Given the variable out patterns of the former I would not, in isolation, give it much weight. The ECM 00z op is enouraging and pretty consistent too.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

doctormog
10 January 2019 06:55:47

UKMO looks primed as early as day 6!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The pattern, once we move into the more unsettled mobile phase seems to be, initially, for repeated incursions of cool/colder air from the north. At first at least this is interspersed with milder/less col interludes. I suspect in the coming days the UKMO might also follow that trend. Further along the overall decline in temperature seems more steady. A consistent trend based on the empirical data.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2019 07:07:24

 

The pattern, once we move into the more unsettled mobile phase seems to be, initially, for repeated incursions of cool/cold Adair from the north. At first at least this is interspersed with milder/less col interludes. I suspect in the coming days the UKMO might also follow that trend. Further along the overall decline in temperature seems more steady. A consistent trend based on the empirical data.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

Indeed,  decent looking ECM aswell looks primed at day 10 which looks to be the starting point for significant cold. Snow chances before that though especially for Scotland. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
10 January 2019 07:30:38
Yes some increased hopes for northern hills - the Scottish ski industry will no doubt welcome any snowfall. In the medium term not looking the best IMO for the southern contingent- perhaps hints of something better in FI but where have we heard that before this winter?
pdiddy
10 January 2019 07:33:16

can't quite fathom the doom and gloom given the GEFs  and para:

Diagramme GEFS

Rob K
10 January 2019 07:40:29

can't quite fathom the doom and gloom given the GEFs  and para:

Diagramme GEFS

Originally Posted by: pdiddy 

Didn’t you know? Anything less than every run showing -15C and nonstop blizzards means winter is over!

 

It does have to be said though that the GEFS for London are less cold than a day or two ago, with the mean never really going below  -5C for the whole run now (which is milder than it has been in the first part of his week!)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
10 January 2019 07:43:20

can't quite fathom the doom and gloom given the GEFs  and para:

Diagramme GEFS

Originally Posted by: pdiddy 

I take it you live in a ski resort as apparently that’s the only place it is looking good for? 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

doctormog
10 January 2019 07:50:04

 

Didn’t you know? Anything less than every run showing -15C and nonstop blizzards means winter is over!

 

It does have to be said though that the GEFS for London are less cold than a day or two ago, with the mean never really going below  -5C for the whole run now (which is milder than it has been in the first part of his week!)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I don’t have the same charts saved for London but I think overall there have only been minor changes, certainly compared with yesterday’s 06z GEFS ensemble set. In terms of colder now, the difference (not really obvious from the t850s) is in the cyclonic nature of the upcoming conditions. Essentially the air will colder at more layers or thicknesses (and yes I guess that is a simplification).

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Rob K
10 January 2019 08:00:29
I think a lot of people have been expecting a sudden shift to easterly looking charts, but reading between the lines of the MO forecasts it seems more likely that the cold will be coming from the northwest and affecting the north first before the jet sinks south and the whole country goes colder. That certainly seems to be what many charts are showing. Eg the GFSP run this morning which doesn’t look especially blocked but it as a major snowfest.

Of course I am not expecting anything that extreme!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Solar Cycles
10 January 2019 08:15:51
The GFSP is a sight to behold this morning it’s soon to be redundant brother not so whilst the ECM is toying with the idea of the P in its latter stages.
Heavy Weather 2013
10 January 2019 08:19:46

I think a lot of people have been expecting a sudden shift to easterly looking charts, but reading between the lines of the MO forecasts it seems more likely that the cold will be coming from the northwest and affecting the north first before the jet sinks south and the whole country goes colder. That certainly seems to be what many charts are showing. Eg the GFSP run this morning which doesn’t look especially blocked but it as a major snowfest.

Of course I am not expecting anything that extreme!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

For me, its all about the snow. 

So right now its a game of high risk, high reward. I am not worried about extreme cold, If we have lots of snow that's all that matters IMHO

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

ballamar
10 January 2019 08:28:15
Looking messier today and potentially very snowy, anyone disappointed think back to the surprise snowfalls of when you were young - did you look at the uppers and feel upset? Cold and snow meant exactly that and even the disappointment when it didn’t snow added to the fun. I still think an outbreak from NE will materialise in the models soon with some deep cold so many changes coming interesting
Argyle77
10 January 2019 08:33:04
Not bothered for 1987 depth of cold just want it cold enough to see snow piling upon the ground,is that too much to ask?
Solar Cycles
10 January 2019 08:44:46

Not bothered for 1987 depth of cold just want it cold enough to see snow piling upon the ground,is that too much to ask?

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 

Indeed, who cares about -15 uppers and brutal cold when it’s dry as a bone IYBY, the GFSP is a thing if beauty with several huge dumpings of snow for many with uppers ranging from -4 to -8c across the country.

Gandalf The White
10 January 2019 08:48:30

ECM ensemble mean at T+168 looks very solid for cold weather

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



nsrobins
10 January 2019 08:51:05

I confess I’m just starting to become a little ‘underwhelmed’ by the surface response (modelled) to the SSW and the lack of a decent HLB signal going into the period (20th on) that is supposed to see the start of the trop response. If it wasn’t for the consistency of the UKM long range I’d even start to doubt my own ascertain on the theory, and of course the phrase ‘by no means certain’ does’t help.
We do however seem to have agreement on heights riding over the pole which is a good start, the 20th on is only just appearing in GFS long range and despite the dearth of ‘stella’ charts such synoptics can and historically do appear quickly so I’ll leave the fence climbing until the weekend when something much more definitive should start making itself seen.
This won’t make sense to those of you further North and higher up but cold NW flows don’t really cut it for lowland south.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
10 January 2019 08:56:05

I confess I’m just starting to become a little ‘underwhelmed’ by the surface response (modelled) to the SSW and the lack of a decent HLB signal going into the period (20th on) that is supposed to see the start of the trop response. If it wasn’t for the consistency of the UKM long range I’d even start to doubt my own ascertain on the theory, and of course the phrase ‘by no means certain’ does’t help.
We do however seem to have agreement on heights riding over the pole which is a good start, the 20th on is only just appearing in GFS long range and despite the dearth of ‘stella’ charts such synoptics can and historically do appear quickly so I’ll leave the fence climbing until the weekend when something much more definitive should start making itself seen.
This won’t make sense to those of you further North and higher up but cold NW flows don’t really cut it for lowland south.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I'm actually with you on this Neil , I was/am expecting to see more blocking , maybe it might just appear at very short notice but currently I'm not jumping around the room 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Brian Gaze
10 January 2019 08:57:20

I confess I’m just starting to become a little ‘underwhelmed’ by the surface response (modelled) to the SSW and the lack of a decent HLB signal going into the period (20th on) that is supposed to see the start of the trop response. If it wasn’t for the consistency of the UKM long range I’d even start to doubt my own ascertain on the theory, and of course the phrase ‘by no means certain’ does’t help.
We do however seem to have agreement on heights riding over the pole which is a good start, the 20th on is only just appearing in GFS long range and despite the dearth of ‘stella’ charts such synoptics can and historically do appear quickly so I’ll leave the fence climbing until the weekend when something much more definitive should start making itself seen.
This won’t make sense to those of you further North and higher up but cold NW flows don’t really cut it for lowland south.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Add on a couple of C to GHFS 850s and 2m temps and knock out 85% of the ppt across the south and then things really start to look underwhelming. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Saint Snow
10 January 2019 09:03:51

Looking messier today and potentially very snowy, anyone disappointed think back to the surprise snowfalls of when you were young - did you look at the uppers and feel upset? Cold and snow meant exactly that and even the disappointment when it didn’t snow added to the fun. I still think an outbreak from NE will materialise in the models soon with some deep cold so many changes coming interesting

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

 

Output has a 2013 feel to it. We had several snowfalls through Jan and Mar, three of which were over 10cm. None lasted more than a handful of days, which was a bit of a disappointment after falls in 2009 & 2010 that stayed around for upwards of a week, but I'd be happy with dumplings of 10-15cm now regardless of their endurance!

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Solar Cycles
10 January 2019 09:08:54

 

Add on a couple of C to GHFS 850s and 2m temps and knock out 85% of the ppt across the south and then things really start to look underwhelming. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

For those in southern England the uppers aren’t all that good........ but hey ho. 😜

Arcus
10 January 2019 09:11:22

 

 

Output has a 2013 feel to it. We had several snowfalls through Jan and Mar, three of which were over 10cm. None lasted more than a handful of days, which was a bit of a disappointment after falls in 2009 & 2010 that stayed around for upwards of a week, but I'd be happy with dumplings of 10-15cm now regardless of their endurance!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Lordy, you must have a large casserole pot Saint. 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

jhall
10 January 2019 09:17:56

Blimey - the parallel GFS this morning is the snowiest run this winter [for England, at least], dumping 4 to 6 inches over most of the country. An astonishing run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&runpara=1


Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes, recently it's seemed that every time the latest operational run has disappointed the parallel has come up trumps, and vice versa. I'm salivating over that 0Z parallel run. If it by any chance came off, in the SE we'd have snow up over the tops of our wellies. :)

Cranleigh, Surrey
jhall
10 January 2019 09:25:02

I think a lot of people have been expecting a sudden shift to easterly looking charts, but reading between the lines of the MO forecasts it seems more likely that the cold will be coming from the northwest and affecting the north first before the jet sinks south and the whole country goes colder. That certainly seems to be what many charts are showing. Eg the GFSP run this morning which doesn’t look especially blocked but it as a major snowfest.

Of course I am not expecting anything that extreme!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Your interpretation would certainly tie in with what Gavin P was inferring in his video yesterday from looking at the EC 34-day anomaly charts, with the cold spell beginning with northerlies before shifting to easterlies later on. 

Cranleigh, Surrey
Saint Snow
10 January 2019 09:28:27

 

Lordy, you must have a large casserole pot Saint. 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

 

To go with my hearty appetite and over-zealous phone spell-corrector!

 

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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