Yes, alright, I know we all spend hours checking the charts but you know what I mean.

I could waste my time with a bit of melodrama but frankly I couldn’t be bothered so I will leave that to others, who are doing a fine job. 

P.S. I have no plan for the winter but I can spot a pattern change that is labelled with a big sign saying “pattern change” day in day out for a week 

Well said, Peter.

Ian has said I am trying to put lipstick on a pig, but I have only been stating what the models are showing 10 days ahead. Like you, I see no indication in the output of what Ian was talking about, namely pressure rising noticeably in Europe. The worst that I can see is pressure remaining high in the region of Iberia or just to the west of there. That is not the same as it rising in central Europe or in the Med, which is what Ian seemed to be implying from what he said.

Martin

The problem is that Ian specialises in spotting phantom pattern changes. Which don't have a ghost of a chance ....  

Yes, both GFS Op and the new v3 have shown similar evolutions, all in line with some of the analysis of the effects of the SSW in terms of splitting the vortex and dropping one chunk somewhere around Scandi.

Just because the MetO's thoughts from pre-Christmas on how they thought early January would shape up look like being incorrect, it doesn't definitely mean they will likewise be wrong about the back end of this month.

Remember, some of us were similarly doubtful last February of their prediction for a major wintry blast at the end of that month when it seemed at one point as though the models we have access to were backing away from that happening.....

There's more than a hint of the Blackadder about your phraseology!

Thank the meteorological gods for yours, GtW's, Retron's, Dave Porter's, and others' level-headed input into this thread. 

Some people seem to have lost the plot this winter (whilst certain others predictably act the complete whopper. Again)

Some facts might useful

Day 37/90 of meteorological winter.

Here are my stats:

Days with snow falling - 0

Days with snow laying - 0

Air frosts -                    0

Ground frosts -             2

December mean:        +7.5

Current January mean +4.6

A very mild and toothless "winter" thus far.  Frankly, more of an extension of autumn.

However, for me, its the period 24th January - 10th March that interests me for  one as our climate with its thermal lag, that is likely to deliver any lasting cold and snow that is on offer.  So the best chances lay ahead, especially as the SSW trickle down effects will kick in soon

Well we will see what happens, but those stats are right up there with some of the monsters of the last 32 years.

GFS 18z ends with all the action to our south-east which is where it is pretty much is now!

Yes again with no sign of any northern blocking either:

I always look from the Northern Hemisphere down:

Looks better than the 12z at first glance in terms of cold potential longer-term.

"I am beginning to think this may actually happen".

Also, and as Gandalf mentioned earlier, the SSW last year happened at a time when the polar vortex would have been less strong as we were near the end of the meteorogical winter and the sun was a couple of months into its journey northwards. The SSW that has just happened took place only a week or so after the winter solstice and thus at the time when the sun is at its lowest point in the sky. As Gandalf says, the polar vortex is usually at its strongest at this point in the winter and thus will be more difficult for any SSW to take down than would be the case when one takes place near the end of the winter, as happened last year.

Better output all round this morning GFS and GFS Para still in course for a pattern change to much colder weather by the 19th 

Slighter better runs this morning with some trough dig into Europe at day 10. Upstream profiles remain poor though of course subject to change at that timeframe.

Hunt the phantom cold spell at your peril.

In the short term I hope the storm in the north does not cause loss of life, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 75mph gusts in places.

The 00z GFS/GEFS is definitely slightly more promising for cold in the longer term. If the trend is maintained we can possibly open the 300 club and see whether a genuine countdown can begin and and maintained.

I don’t remember any “cold spell” ever being shown for the 10th.

The change midmonth is still there as the more unsettled weather moves in and the colder air begins to move south. How far, how cold and how frequently have always been in doubt. No model has yet shown a consistent cold spell, although admittedly the GFS/P has to Yes with idea, just not with every run. 

All in all no real change this morning and certainly no cold spell by the 10th, if anything it’s in the middle of a mild run, unless skies clear.

I always thought it was around mid month ? Currently the Beeb and The Met both say week 3 or 4 of Jan , I will stick with that .

The upstream pattern although slightly better than yesterday still doesn’t look all that great at the moment, hopefully from acorns to oak here on.

Yes, the 00z maintains the theme of pushing a major chunk of the PV to the European/Russian side of the pole.  That’s what some experts were expecting to see - in terms of splitting the PV (the likely response to the SSW).

As you say, it would be good now to see the transition starting to get into the high res part of the run, ie sub-240 hrs.

Around two weeks to wait: the timing is also about right.

It's pretty obvious that ensemble number 10 in the GEFS has it nailed on this morning.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=10&mode=0&carte=0

From Russia..with love