Next 48hrs will no doubt have some ups and down, but key thing is to get some of the cold charts in the 250-280 range.

Exciting times ahead

Martin

This is the post 240 winter to beat all post 240 winters (and I've seen more than a few...).

Sounds promising, Martin.

IMO there are solid signals for a marked change to cold conditions but whether that is cold zonality or something a little more blocked is still unclear.

From T+192 the 18z gives barely 24 hours of 850s above zero and much of the time -4 to -6.  Not especially cold but certainly below average.

There hasn't been a Bartlett at any stage this winter and there's nothing in the forecast charts either.

Yes, a fairly pronounced shift towards the end: the milder options are limited to a few runs.  The third week still looks to be the fulcrum in the shift of balance towards colder.

A long way off obviously, but first time this winter that the EC46 has a clear cold signal (for late Jan and early Feb).

Oh dear, are we really down to below average as our best bet?  Where are the good old fashioned pub runs when you need them!

Looks like it's a flip if this comes about - Greece and Turkey as well as many parts of EAST and SE Europe has seen their fair share of cold and snow and now it's the turn for the Northern and north western Europe, to see the cold and snow?

WEEK 3 TEMP Anomalies:

WEEK 4 TEMP Anomalies:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&runpara=1 

It's exceptionally unusual to get lows wrapped in -10 to -8 850s passing over the UK from the west and as the "snow height" charts show, slushy wet snow would be widespread.

The good news is they're backed up by the ECM ensembles too:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

...and that's last night's run. Of note is the change from next Friday onwards away from high 850s appearing at all - note how the absolute maximum is generally in the 5C range from then on. At the same time, the number of sub -10C runs then picks up although at this stage it's still fewer than 10% of the members.

Good output this morning even the ECM goes cold at day 10 the 18th. Looks primed as well with massive arctic high nudging south.

GEFS mean drops below -5c (looking at midlands)....from 19th onwards...para looks potentially snowy towards the end...Control does too

Even Brighton has some respectable figures in the snow row towards the end of the run. But the synoptic charts don't back this up - I don't see any source of deep cold air in ECM or GFS. So I'm not holding my breath.

I think this winter will break records - for hopecasting

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_192_1.png 

Pretty much agree with those sentiments. While the models suggest there will be colder interludes towards the end of the month, there is no evidence of a prolonged cold spell. The Azores High is prominent throughout the GFS 6z run and until it packs its bags, any cold over the UK from the NW will be transient.

A lot more positives with the output this morning the trend last night remains in tact and the GFS produces a snowfest IMBY in the latter frames....... 😎

Just what we were hoping to see at this time 

Yes, hard to say at this stage. At least it looks cold rather than mild towards the end of the month but what happens then is anybody's guess but it's a much better place to be starting from and at a good time of year as well.