Model Output Discussion 04/01/19 11:45 >>>>· Page 18

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:18:14

#426

Wasn't the March 1891 low like that- the one that put 100ft drifts in Tavy Cleave (Dartmoor)?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

Just for fun:

Finally nice to have something interesting to look at and play with on the GFS - even if it is JFF and in FI

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

fairweather
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:18:35

#427

As the milder outliers drop out the mean is now trending down to -6C on the 850hPa ensembles. Looking promising.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:24:34

#428

Wasn't the March 1891 low like that- the one that put 100ft drifts in Tavy Cleave (Dartmoor)?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

Bit before my time, Bertie

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

doctormog
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:27:26

#429

Bit before my time, Bertie

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Maximal snowdrifts or is that rabbits too?

Hopefully the long signposted cold will arrive but I think 100ft snowdrifts is quite a ramp in more ways than one.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

JACKO4EVER
Guest

08 January 2019 17:31:21

#430

Bit before my time, Bertie

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

come off it saint, everyone knows your a veteran of the severe winter of 1894-95 with your snow shovel in one hand and old Moore’s weather almanc in the other 😉

Solar Cycles
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:34:34

#431

Mixingmemetaphores.

I think it's fatal to rabbits.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

😂😂😂

Arcus
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:35:09

#432

Plenty of eye candy in the 12z ENS. Mean is knocking on the door of -7.5c on the 850s IMBY in latter stages.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:37:44

#433

Maximal snowdrifts or is that rabbits too?

Hopefully the long signposted cold will arrive but I think 100ft snowdrifts is quite a ramp in more ways than one.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/6521a2e68f3165fcae35bbab6b956e4b/article/a_look_back_at_the_great_blizzard_of_march_1891.html

"Reports from the time spoke of up to 4 feet of snow in parts of the south-west and the deep ravine, Tavy Cleave by Dartmoor, had apparently filled with snow to depths of 300 feet as snow was driven in by the gales."

And from our own TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=tystat&id=907

"It was estimated that Dartmoor had between 1 to 1 and a half metres of snow and snow depths of 15cm+ was reported south west of a line from Kent to Gwynedd. The Tavy Cleave on the edge of Dartmoor which is 500 feet deep was completely filled with drifted snow."

Of course, these were reports- no doubt exaggerated, but to give that impression even to tham thar Dartmoor folks (apologies Dev ) it must have been a pretty spectacular sight!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

marco 79
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:39:12

#434

Let's hope ECM pick up the thread.....12z ens notching down....

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Notty
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:39:36

#435

12z GFSP is running late on Meteociel

Perhaps it is so extreme they don’t believe it ...

I know - silly me (can’t find the blushing emoji) but the madness is getting to me. I would bank the GFS 12z op. Perhaps the effects of the SSW are finally starting to be felt in the NWP world.

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

doctormog
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:41:44

#436

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/6521a2e68f3165fcae35bbab6b956e4b/article/a_look_back_at_the_great_blizzard_of_march_1891.html

"Reports from the time spoke of up to 4 feet of snow in parts of the south-west and the deep ravine, Tavy Cleave by Dartmoor, had apparently filled with snow to depths of 300 feet as snow was driven in by the gales."

And from our own TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=tystat&id=907

"It was estimated that Dartmoor had between 1 to 1 and a half metres of snow and snow depths of 15cm+ was reported south west of a line from Kent to Gwynedd. The Tavy Cleave on the edge of Dartmoor which is 500 feet deep was completely filled with drifted snow."

Of course, these were reports- no doubt exaggerated, but to give that impression even to tham thar Dartmoor folks (apologies Dev ) it must have been a pretty spectacular sight!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

I have often wondered about that event and, even allowing for a bit of exaggeration, ut must have been a sight to behold!

The 12z GEFS ensemble set seem to have taken a nudge down in temperature terms.

Is it just me or is the GFSP a bit slow in coming out this evening? Perhaps it’s frozen.

Edit: Oops Notty beat me to it re. the GFSP.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

Retron
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:45:54

#437

It's time. For those new to this, this chart tracks the number of GEFS members - out of 22 - showing 850s of -10C or below for London on Meteociel (other sources are available, but I use MC for consistency with previous charts).

The date (18th etc) refers to the first date of a -10C 850 run. More often than not this drifts back a day or two as the time approaches... that's if it comes at all!

Let's see if it works this time. I'll post an update each evening over the next few days. Click for full-size.

Edited by user 08 January 2019 17:47:12 | Reason: Not specified

Leysdown, north Kent

roger63
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:46:36

#438

Plenty of eye candy in the 12z ENS. Mean is knocking on the door of -7.5c on the 850s IMBY in latter stages.

Originally Posted by: Arcus

Just a reminder that the great winter of 46/47 stared in earnest around Jan 22nd .........

Devonian
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:47:06

#439

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/6521a2e68f3165fcae35bbab6b956e4b/article/a_look_back_at_the_great_blizzard_of_march_1891.html

"Reports from the time spoke of up to 4 feet of snow in parts of the south-west and the deep ravine, Tavy Cleave by Dartmoor, had apparently filled with snow to depths of 300 feet as snow was driven in by the gales."

And from our own TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=tystat&id=907

"It was estimated that Dartmoor had between 1 to 1 and a half metres of snow and snow depths of 15cm+ was reported south west of a line from Kent to Gwynedd. The Tavy Cleave on the edge of Dartmoor which is 500 feet deep was completely filled with drifted snow."

Of course, these were reports- no doubt exaggerated, but to give that impression even to tham thar Dartmoor folks (apologies Dev ) it must have been a pretty spectacular sight!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

1978 was simply incredible here, but I have my doubts Tavy Cleave was filled in 1891. How long does it take to fill Scottish corries to a depth of 500ft? It doesn't happen in a few days, if ever?

Still, do you remember the great winter of T+384? I do just wonder, finally, if we will...

Bertwhistle
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:47:39

#440

I have often wondered about that event and, even allowing for a bit of exaggeration, ut must have been a sight to behold!

The 12z GEFS ensemble set seem to have taken a nudge down in temperature terms.

Is it just me or is the GFSP a bit slow in coming out this evening? Perhaps it’s frozen.

Edit: Oops Notty beat me to it re. the GFSP.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Either way, it's all eyes open again as the cold threat (or promise) starts to be cultured again. Looking forward to the ENS as well as the parallel.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Solar Cycles
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:50:58

#441

Just a reminder that the great winter of 46/47 stared in earnest around Jan 22nd .........

Originally Posted by: roger63

Well that’s jinxed it now.😁

doctormog
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:53:32

#442

Either way, it's all eyes open again as the cold threat (or promise) starts to be cultured again. Looking forward to the ENS as well as the parallel.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

The 12z GEFS ensemble data are out

London

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS)

Rob K
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 17:57:43

#443

Decent snow rows there, up to 45% for London, I'd suggest the majority of the runs have snow at some point.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

jhall
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 18:07:35

#444

Wasn't the March 1891 low like that- the one that put 100ft drifts in Tavy Cleave (Dartmoor)?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=2&jaar=1891&maand=03&dag=10&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

I suspect the 850 mb temperatures shown there should be taken with a large pinch of salt, as I think this was before the era of the weather balloon.

Cranleigh, Surrey

jhall
Advanced Member

08 January 2019 18:12:17

#445

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/6521a2e68f3165fcae35bbab6b956e4b/article/a_look_back_at_the_great_blizzard_of_march_1891.html

"Reports from the time spoke of up to 4 feet of snow in parts of the south-west and the deep ravine, Tavy Cleave by Dartmoor, had apparently filled with snow to depths of 300 feet as snow was driven in by the gales."

And from our own TWO:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=tystat&id=907

"It was estimated that Dartmoor had between 1 to 1 and a half metres of snow and snow depths of 15cm+ was reported south west of a line from Kent to Gwynedd. The Tavy Cleave on the edge of Dartmoor which is 500 feet deep was completely filled with drifted snow."

Of course, these were reports- no doubt exaggerated, but to give that impression even to tham thar Dartmoor folks (apologies Dev ) it must have been a pretty spectacular sight!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle

There's an excellent book called "The Blizzard of '91" by Clive Carter. It was published some forty years ago, but the last time I checked second-hand copies were still available through Amazon. Recommended.

Cranleigh, Surrey