The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Brian Gaze
06 January 2019 18:51:55

Ummm...

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
06 January 2019 18:56:32

That 00z run chart was one of the options for midmonth. I’m not sure what use it is in isolation or indeed if the 12z will support it, but it does highlight the transition to more unsettled conditions midmonth (not unlike the GFS op and GFSP runs).

Edit: The updated 12z ECM op run is a similiar pattern with more mobile conditions across e U.K. and perhaps some wintry weather (or at least sub 528dam air) in parts of the north with a Low moving in and probable colder conditions to follow.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

marting
06 January 2019 18:59:48

Consistency again in the trend with GFS op, control and Para in all trying to bring in mid Atlantic blocking out in FI. The ECM is showing us how the vortex will move around to create the same pattern post 240 - although by 240 the ECM is already cold enough. So hopefully be looking at the block coming into 240 hours and onwards🤞🏻 I can dream!
Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 19:00:04

There's one big dipper at the end but these don't look overly inspiring for cold weather fans and they now go out to 22/01. Sorry, but I can only call things as I seem them. Absolutely happy, fine and dandy for all and sundry to disagree with me! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Definitely a step back from the GEFS but the Op and the Para were very good at the end.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
06 January 2019 19:04:03

There's one big dipper at the end but these don't look overly inspiring for cold weather fans and they now go out to 22/01. Sorry, but I can only call things as I seem them. Absolutely happy, fine and dandy for all and sundry to disagree with me! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

To be  fair they’re for London which according to the MetO 16-30 updates is expected to remain on the milder side of things until then. That’s not to say I’m overwhelmed by any of the output thus far mind  you. 😁

doctormog
06 January 2019 19:07:23

To be  fair they’re for London which according to the MetO 16-30 updates is expected to remain on the milder side of things until then. That’s not to say I’m overwhelmed by any of the output thus far mind  you. 😁

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

This is true and even taking that into consideration the t850hPa mean is below the LTA from the 15th, albeit only slightly at times

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Solar Cycles
06 January 2019 19:07:46
Good god just looked at the ECM and wish I hadn’t bothered. 😂😂😂
JACKO4EVER
06 January 2019 19:11:05

Good god just looked at the ECM and wish I hadn’t bothered. 😂😂😂

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

yes sadly it looks like the first half of winter is close to being nailed as a non event. As to the second half, is the glass half full or half empty? I suppose it can only get better,,,,,, surely ? 😄

Chunky Pea
06 January 2019 19:11:33

Ummm...

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Ah, another ridge building up over the eastern States to feed the current parasitical high that has dominated the eastern Atlantic this Winter. Fanbloodytastic. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Shropshire
06 January 2019 19:11:49

The one positive from the modelling prior to today were the low heights over Europe towards mid-month - we've lost that now 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 19:23:30

As it stands we are at least 12 days from anything interesting . The good news the ECM can only get better

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
06 January 2019 19:29:10

The one positive from the modelling prior to today were the low heights over Europe towards mid-month - we've lost that now 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Maybe I'm missing something, but from the output I have been looking at, there are no indications of any major height rises in the region where coldies do not want that to happen, i.e central Europe.

The indications I am seeing suggest that the HP currently dominating our weather will slowly recede into the atlantic, with the jet stream gradually moving south with LP areas moving down from the NW.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

marting
06 January 2019 19:30:32

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but from the output I have been looking at, there are no indications of any major height rises in the region where coldies do not want that to happen, i.e central Europe.

The indications I am seeing suggest that the HP currently dominating our weather will slowly recede into the atlantic, with the jet stream gradually moving south with LP areas moving down from the NW.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I agree, that looks the longer term pattern being forecast.

martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

David M Porter
06 January 2019 19:34:32

As it stands we are at least 12 days from anything interesting . The good news the ECM can only get better

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

When comparing the GFS and ECM 12z op runs at 240hrs, they seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet in as much as they show the current HP gradually receding away into the atlantic and the jet moving south allowing some colder air into northern areas at least.

It has looked likely for a while now that any spell of real cold is unlikely to occur before we reach the middle of January, so I'm not sure why some seem to be disappointed at today's runs. For my money, today's output (GFS at least) seems to accord reasonably well with the thougthts of the MetO in as much as they show an unsettled spell coming along which may provide a route to a rather colder spell. No output shows a Bartlett or Euro High ar anything like that setting up shop, so I'm not sure why some seem to be on the point of chucking the towel in.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Chunky Pea
06 January 2019 19:40:54

No output shows a Bartlett or Euro High ar anything like that setting up shop, so I'm not sure why some seem to be on the point of chucking the towel in.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I'd prefer a 'Bartlett' or Euro high to anything the current outputs are showing at the moment. Mediocre to the extreme and another storm season down the pan with absolutely nothing to show for it. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Shropshire
06 January 2019 19:42:37

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but from the output I have been looking at, there are no indications of any major height rises in the region where coldies do not want that to happen, i.e central Europe.

The indications I am seeing suggest that the HP currently dominating our weather will slowly recede into the atlantic, with the jet stream gradually moving south with LP areas moving down from the NW.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

The GFS and ECM both show the HP to the South drifting into  Europe with the jet taking on the flat W/SW look. That's the change in the NWP across the board today. It may change again but today is a big step back IMO.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gooner
06 January 2019 19:49:49

12z GEFS certainly not as good as the 6z IMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2019 19:51:28

 

When comparing the GFS and ECM 12z op runs at 240hrs, they seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet in as much as they show the current HP gradually receding away into the atlantic and the jet moving south allowing some colder air into northern areas at least.

It has looked likely for a while now that any spell of real cold is unlikely to occur before we reach the middle of January, so I'm not sure why some seem to be disappointed at today's runs. For my money, today's output (GFS at least) seems to accord reasonably well with the thougthts of the MetO in as much as they show an unsettled spell coming along which may provide a route to a rather colder spell. No output shows a Bartlett or Euro High ar anything like that setting up shop, so I'm not sure why some seem to be on the point of chucking the towel in.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 

I'm certainly not chucking the towel in just yet the ECM could easily throw in a cheeky Iceland wedge 2 days after that 240h chart just like the GFS and GFS Para do. Still hope but its painfully slow and annoying now.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
06 January 2019 19:58:49

 

The GFS and ECM both show the HP to the South drifting into  Europe with the jet taking on the flat W/SW look. That's the change in the NWP across the board today. It may change again but today is a big step back IMO.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

At 240hrs on the GFS and ECM op runs, HP is shown to be in the region of Iberia, or just to the west of there. In other words, pretty much where it has been for much of the time in recent weeks. You post would seem to imply that it is moving further east into the Med or central Europe; maybe that isn't what you intended to imply but there is no indication of it moving into a Bartlett or Euro High position. What's more, is that both models at 240hrs show the jet gradually moving south, as I mentioned earlier.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gusty
06 January 2019 20:25:00

Horrendous output for cold weather fans. Even Docs unsettled and much colder mid month signal is now in trouble. 

This winter is not shaping up as planned. 

A milder than expected December and a January that is also in danger of finishing above average if things don't change soon.

Respected members here were expecting FI changes to start appearing after 26th December.

We need to be realistic now but be mindful that the influences of the SSW can still make their presence felt within the output in the next 4 or 5 days.

Move the goal posts to the right as much as we like. We have all been here long enough to sense things aren't quite right.

 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Shropshire
06 January 2019 20:26:18

 

At 240hrs on the GFS and ECM op runs, HP is shown to be in the region of Iberia, or just to the west of there. In other words, pretty much where it has been for much of the time in recent weeks. You post would seem to imply that it is moving further east into the Med or central Europe; maybe that isn't what you intended to imply but there is no indication of it moving into a Bartlett or Euro High position. What's more, is that both models at 240hrs show the jet gradually moving south, as I mentioned earlier.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

David, I think you are putting lipstick on a pig here...

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
fairweather
06 January 2019 20:33:20

 

This is just not true. Winters in Greece have warmed up (less than here) and snow frequency has decreased significantly esp in Northern Greece.

However more localised heavy snowfalls have increased in Athens and some Aegean islands (they have a version of lake effect snow) over the last 30 years mainly due to a more prominent Azores high.

Before the Internet era people here didn't know how often it snows in Greece as they only go there during the hot summer season.

And speaking of this, the summers there have trended significantly hotter over the last 30 years (1-1.5C).

Apologies for the off-topic.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Sorry yes, more snowfall in Southern Greece and some Islands. England indisputable though.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gooner
06 January 2019 20:33:53

Horrendous output for cold weather fans. Even Docs unsettled and much colder mid month signal is now in trouble. 

This winter is not shaping up as planned. 

A milder than expected December and a January that is also in danger of finishing above average if things don't change soon.

Respected members here were expecting FI changes to start appearing after 26th December.

We need to be realistic now but be mindful that the influences of the SSW can still make their presence felt within the output in the next 4 or 5 days.

Move the goal posts to the right as much as we like. We have all been here long enough to sense things aren't quite right.

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Just to refresh what the Met thought 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gandalf The White
06 January 2019 20:37:02

 

The GFS and ECM both show the HP to the South drifting into  Europe with the jet taking on the flat W/SW look. That's the change in the NWP across the board today. It may change again but today is a big step back IMO.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I have just wasted several minutes double-checking the output, only to find that there is no such drift of high pressure into Europe, nor is there any solid evidence of the jet taking on a W/SW pattern.

Why on earth do you do this?

What I see from the output is little changed: a brief cold snap followed by high pressure becoming dominant again then a process that should see a chunk of the polar vortex setting up to our east/north-east.  

ECM goes to day 10; the GFS output has been signalling for several days that the pattern change to something markedly colder lies beyond day 10.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gooner
06 January 2019 20:40:05

 

I have just wasted several minutes double-checking the output, only to find that there is no such drift of high pressure into Europe, nor is there any solid evidence of the jet taking on a W/SW pattern.

Why on earth do you do this?

What I see from the output is little changed: a brief cold snap followed by high pressure becoming dominant again then a process that should see a chunk of the polar vortex setting up to our east/north-east.  

ECM goes to day 10; the GFS output has been signalling for several days that the pattern change to something markedly colder lies beyond day 10.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Remove ads from site