Ian F just on Points West in Bristol showed a brilliant graphic of the SSW encroaching on to our side of the pole also a brilliant trop chart showing blocking to the west and an arctic flow over us. Said how they were keeping an eye on this with the possibility of much colder conditions moving in for the last third of the month.  Didn't notice the timescale on the trop chart but assuming this was in line with the prediction.

For the record and apologies for off topic the other day I posted a link on media thread regarding the outlook for the Alps form the Chamonix weather situation. They are expecting a milder breakthrough from the Atlantic affecting northern France from the 15th and this is what I am seeing on the GFS runs at present.

Thats not a jetstream... its jetrapids

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20190104/18/324/hgt300.png 

I suspect some tantalisisng output over next week or so. Long long way to go but my interest has been piqued.

Not such a strong potent northerly on 18z run on 15th Jan but the FI looks better in the longer run with heights building across Greenland forcing low pressure systems southwards and southerly tracking jet stream:

18z Parallel seeings things even more blocked by 18th:

A really poor night from ECM and lots of disappointment from the general trend.
Let’s hope tomorrow’s 06z blonde run can rescue matters.
Ps. Didn’t that used to be GEM?

ECM 12z was OK; GFS 18z op and v3 were full of potential.

ECM op was amongst the mildest of the ensemble members on  days 7, 8 and 10. Beyond that there’s a marked cooling trend with the dominant cluster signalling cold to very cold conditions.

ECM 12Z why was that poor? only goes out to +240.

Plus, did you see some really cold GEFS ensembles on 18z run?

18z Control @ 306z doesn't look to bad either!

Poor 0z overnight it really is like pulling teeth. 

Ok I hadn't looked at the ICON which is good at 180h but everything else is poor even the GFS Para 

Looks like our jelly high is in danger of becoming legless. 

ECM not to bad at day 10 massive Arctic high showing its hand. But we are still at least 10 to 15 days away from any significant cold this morning 

Looking at the ENS, GFS seems to be undecided WRT what happens on 13th, with a good handful of outputs keeping the HP west and the N or NEly in place. Others including Op and C give warmer more zonal conditions.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Add: ECM op echoes the colder options

I really can’t think of a better analogy that this right now. I just get this feeling this high has been in the wrong place for so long. Barely any interesting weather, and rarely any sun. 

Your right I can't remember a more boring winter weatherwise . No cold, no storms,  just cloudy  and mild .

thats the trouble - the SSW has blown expectations way out of proportion. Some still think it is a guaranteed path to a Dickens Christmas card scene.

The EC this morning illustrates this scenario as do a few of the GEFS.

Still nothing of note , it really is a waiting again and to some extent hoping 

Agreed.  I believe any cold surface response in our part of the world will come from that way and will take time, perhaps into the very end of this month.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/latest-model-guidance-for-the-mid-late-january-winter-weather-across-europe/?fbclid=IwAR1o3oYT7AQejN6HpRGC2lcdeodlHy074x7GKYM6kP15hI3OXFmWDvzBCBk 

2-3week lag. Mean European trough and Arctic high. 2m temp anomalies -2 to -3C UK 16-22nd Jan

Patience again the buzz word.

Most sensible post this morning.  Talk about glass half empty prophecies and winter is finished, flipping heck it's January the 5th.  As I mentioned yesterday I don't expect much to show up that points to a more favoured solution for coldies, for at least another week, and that's pretty clear with current outputs.  

Now just consider the current situation.  

1.  ECMWF and GFS are still in quite good agreement on a persisting extensive upper ridge / high pressure system over the northern Atlantic and the Arctic region.  

 2. SSW effect still ongoing and still no signs that the reversal is going to be compromised in the near future.  By the way there is no guarantee that it will produce Armageddon over the UK, but it certainly increases the likelihood, and the way things are panning that shot of something special shouldn't be discounted.  Infact we have at least 8 weeks before we could say well maybe next year.

3. Polar vortex split.

4. If your into sunspot activity and its effects on our atmosphere, you'll be hard pressed to find anything of note right now.

So my glass is half full (again, need to cut back after Crimbo, hic).