I should have waited, thought I was the only one reading the info.  

I’m reminded of the expression ‘God give me patience and I want it now.’

The SSW wasn’t expected to have any effect until the second half of the month.  The time to get frustrated is if there’s no change in the troposphere in two weeks time.

Until then there’s interest next week and then who knows what will follow. 

Interesting read 

Cheers 

Hit it right on the head with the comment, playing a role.  It's an ingredient, that when added has an effect and its a little like baking a cake, if you just chuck your currents and flavourings in without measurement you'll never know what it will taste like, a little like an SSW, every one is different so the effect is nigh on impossible to predict.

No apologies necessary 😎 The system you mention could well qualify for a name under the current convention and a spell of potent westerly gales is indeed projected for N and NW Scotland and the Islands in particular later Monday.

We had a fairly notable wintry spell for a few days in my part of the world in mid-January last year, thanks to a cold NW airstream which lasted for a few days. Looking at a number of the runs from GFS and this morning's  ECM op run, the chances of a repeat of that spell seem to be increasing.

i hope Ally takes a read later to give him some in depth understanding.

CFSv2 2m anomalies for Feb. Not a big fan of CFS but a decent signal for a ‘Scriceland’ block.

Leaving aside the SSW expectations, there is a cooling trend in longer term. Interestingly this is more associated with northerly or colder westerly uppers and not from the east (so far). The ML block edges far enough west to allow to allow the cooler conditions so I would suggest for sanity reasons that we keep the SSW as a thing to be borne in mind and not a panacea which could easily become the story of winter in this thread ;)

This is very true Dave and for me (as a total amateur) my thoughts are to wait and see what happens and then review it in hindsight. Personally the dataset of evidence of impacts of a major SSW is too small for me to have any expectations about its impact. It will have one, what, where and when remains to be seen.

The model output is certainly not without interest and I don’t see that changing in the next few weeks.

Underwhelming output out to day 10, though well signalled by the METO for mid-January.

Once in a mobile pattern, we would expect periods of colder zonality at this time of year as a norm. Perhaps we will see the SSW having an impact later in January by the way of wedges to deflect the jet further South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_228_1.png 

An interesting article......thanks Neil

not sure about that mid month northerly has now become a transient nw'ly but the 06z run ends with heights building over Iceland and Greenland:

Anyone remember the days before 2009/10 and 2010/11 when sub -5 850's for 2 or 3 days were about the only glimmers of hope for a bit of snowfall These days unless we're looking at a nailed on and textbook prolonged severe cold spell the charts are apparently 'disappointing' or nothing on show

The 6z GFS carries on the theme of the past few days, I think Doc may have mentioned it once or twice, of a glancing cold blow in the near term, a brief milder interlude and then something from the North mid-month in a more unsettled and colder flow. The 6z Op is good longer term, with cold uppers for several days and the chance of snow for some.

The near term cold shot, albeit a bonus one that sprung up at short notice, has now been reduced somewhat in length and depth of cold (on the Op but also on the 00z ens so suspect 6z set will follow suit), with the core of the HP just that little bit further south/south west. What it does show though is we're in a pattern where getting cold to our shores isn't too hard  - just getting it stay for a reasonable length of time is the challenge.

All in all and given the 00z ens were showing uncertainty over whether it'd be chilly or cold in the medium and long term and not the usual mild or very mild, I'd say we're in an encouraging pattern and one where it won't take much to bring snowfall for many. Providing the mid to long term pattern verifies of course. Given the persistence of the pattern for a few days there's a decent chance of that happening.

With the joker of the SSW still to be played it's all looking interesting imo

Nice setup from GFS Op 6z:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_300_mslp850.png?cb=695

Just art on the wall until the ENS is out; even then, fancy a bit more persistence over the next few runs.

it's been a dull (in every sense) period of model and weather watching. The only interest being the strat developments. To be fair for a number of weeks the transition to cold has been mooted by the long range experts as being around mid Jan. That's still 10 days away so nothing seems to have changed in that respect. 

The 06z shows some potential for that timeframe.

We seem a million miles away from the cold nirvana that some were hoping for this winter

Say what now?

T264 -10 850s in to Scotland, -5 850s covering the whole country.

T288 -9.5 850s to -6 over most of the country bar the south west.

T312 sub -5 850s over most of the country, northern blocking intensifying and heavy snow for parts of wales and the midlands (mild in extreme south west).

T336 snow cleared, whole country back in sub -5 850s, snow showers for some.

T360 cold north easterly flow with 850s widely around -7 to -10, show showers around the coasts.

T384 still cold with a north easterly flow and sub -5 850s over whole country, -10 850s across the south.

This isn't an isolated off on one member, it's one of a number of members that has repeatedly shown cold (and decent cold) in the mid to long range.

It's been cold for the last few days with some harsh frosts where skies cleared.

It'll be milder for a few days as HP topples over us.

There's then high confidence of colder more unsettled weather bringing the possibility of snow for some. There's a reasonable chance of decent cold for many, with snow opportunities for many.

It'd be nice if this thread had a wee bit more commenting on what the models are actually showing rather than the tedious (not aimed at you this bit Jacko, just picked on your post to quote as the last one before I started ranting lol) jam tomorrow, nothing to see here, misleading and inaccurate rubbish.

Yes the cold is FI but as Doc has repeatedly flagged it's been a signal in the models for days and it's steadily getting closer to the reliable.

Maybe some of the one line complainers could vent in the winter moaning thread instead

But -10 850’s at 384 don’t rock my boat. Until the limpet HP finally decides to make a move we will be stuck in a rut.

I reckon Doc and some of the Scottish contingent will be more interested in the ones at T264 though

Yes, it's a pretty strong signal for colder and more unsettled conditions from around day 10 (mid month).