The Weather Outlook

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bowser
05 January 2019 12:30:13

 

I reckon Doc and some of the Scottish contingent will be more interested in the ones at T264 though

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Agreed. This is decent output for us. Easterlies generally of little interest unless the 850s are below -10.

White Meadows
05 January 2019 12:41:49

 

Yes, it's a pretty strong signal for colder and more unsettled conditions from around day 10 (mid month).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Speaking of mid month, one member for De Bilt goes insanely cold:

 

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

Heavy Weather 2013
05 January 2019 12:43:40
Well well well,

These are good viewing and seem to pair the picture of where we are well.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

The end has that look. Mid terms, seems potential cool to cold as things get established.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Shropshire
05 January 2019 12:45:36

Anyone remember the days before 2009/10 and 2010/11 when sub -5 850's for 2 or 3 days were about the only glimmers of hope for a bit of snowfall These days unless we're looking at a nailed on and textbook prolonged severe cold spell the charts are apparently 'disappointing' or nothing on show

 

The 6z GFS carries on the theme of the past few days, I think Doc may have mentioned it once or twice, of a glancing cold blow in the near term, a brief milder interlude and then something from the North mid-month in a more unsettled and colder flow. The 6z Op is good longer term, with cold uppers for several days and the chance of snow for some.

The near term cold shot, albeit a bonus one that sprung up at short notice, has now been reduced somewhat in length and depth of cold (on the Op but also on the 00z ens so suspect 6z set will follow suit), with the core of the HP just that little bit further south/south west. What it does show though is we're in a pattern where getting cold to our shores isn't too hard  - just getting it stay for a reasonable length of time is the challenge.

All in all and given the 00z ens were showing uncertainty over whether it'd be chilly or cold in the medium and long term and not the usual mild or very mild, I'd say we're in an encouraging pattern and one where it won't take much to bring snowfall for many. Providing the mid to long term pattern verifies of course. Given the persistence of the pattern for a few days there's a decent chance of that happening.

With the joker of the SSW still to be played it's all looking interesting imo

 

 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

 

Yes, before those years at the turn of the decade it was being widely discussed that HLB would never occur again in the winter period - so incredible had the warming been from the late eighties onwards.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
05 January 2019 12:52:24
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
05 January 2019 12:55:07

Oooh im wounded Dave 😂
But -10 850’s at 384 don’t rock my boat. Until the limpet HP finally decides to make a move we will be stuck in a rut.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

But the models are pretty unanimous that it will, before very long. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

JACKO4EVER
05 January 2019 13:11:25

 

But the models are pretty unanimous that it will, before very long. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

hope so Rob, these grey cool nothingness days are almost Richard of Aberdeen-esque. I think there is a general signal for something cooler later in the period but a lot to get through before that 

Hippydave
05 January 2019 13:38:45

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.Thought I'd stick the TWO ens up - much prefer them to the WZ version

Decent number of runs that manage to bring -10 850s to London at varying points and the scatter for the milder period shows there's even a chance that said period will be pretty limited in scale/scope.

Would be nice to see a bit better clustering of runs around the -10 mark but as we're still talking FI the fact so many runs bring cold in is a good sign.

Given it's an unsettled cold flow I really wouldn't be surprised to see little LPs bumping in to the colder air and bringing some decent if somewhat slushy falls of snow for pretty much anywhere. (Sort of what the Op showed although given the air is pretty cold on the Op I'd imagine they'd be less melting after the snowfall with that).

Decent chances of cold with snowfall, lower but still pretty good chance of cold enough air for days struggling above freezing and lying snow for a few days.

What's not to like

(Usual caveat being it could all still collapse in to something much less interesting, although at this stage that's happily an outside chance rather than the main one imo).

 

 

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

flippi01
05 January 2019 13:46:39
The above ensembles look really poor to me no wonder people are fractious ! No real strong signal for cold at all and that takes us beyond the mid point of winter.
Rob K
05 January 2019 13:50:04

The above ensembles look really poor to me no wonder people are fractious ! No real strong signal for cold at all and that takes us beyond the mid point of winter.

Originally Posted by: flippi01 

”Really poor”?

The mean goes below the LTA in a week’s time and stays there for the rest of the run. The main cluster is then between -5 and -10C with plenty of ppn spikes. I’d say it’s the best ensemble we’ve seen all winter. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
05 January 2019 13:52:15

 

”Really poor”?

The mean goes below the LTA in a week’s time and stays there for the rest of the run. The main cluster is then between -5 and -10C with plenty of ppn spikes. I’d say it’s the best ensemble we’ve seen all winter. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That's exactly how it looks to me. The mean flirts with the -5 line from 17th onwards and would be below it at the end, were it not for two fishy outliers high up.

My faith is firm!

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Polar Low
05 January 2019 13:54:47

Indeed Rob best set so far look at those around the 20th good trend 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

 

 

 

”Really poor”?

The mean goes below the LTA in a week’s time and stays there for the rest of the run. The main cluster is then between -5 and -10C with plenty of ppn spikes. I’d say it’s the best ensemble we’ve seen all winter. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Heavy Weather 2013
05 January 2019 14:58:18

 

”Really poor”?

The mean goes below the LTA in a week’s time and stays there for the rest of the run. The main cluster is then between -5 and -10C with plenty of ppn spikes. I’d say it’s the best ensemble we’ve seen all winter. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Agreed, the finally tell the tale of what we have been seeing. That cold clustering at the end woke me up

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

ballamar
05 January 2019 15:14:27

The above ensembles look really poor to me no wonder people are fractious ! No real strong signal for cold at all and that takes us beyond the mid point of winter.

Originally Posted by: flippi01 

 

maybe do some reading on the ENS and how to interpret them - really poor is your analysis of them. They show a good cooling trend and winter could be making its long anticipated appearance soon

Gooner
05 January 2019 15:19:15

The above ensembles look really poor to me no wonder people are fractious ! No real strong signal for cold at all and that takes us beyond the mid point of winter.

Originally Posted by: flippi01 

Trust me they are far from poor 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



JACKO4EVER
05 January 2019 15:28:29

 

Trust me they are far from poor 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

the ENS are rather like Arsenal- they show a lot of promise without having delivered much yet 😉

 

 

Gooner
05 January 2019 15:37:37

 

the ENS are rather like Arsenal- they show a lot of promise without having delivered much yet 😉

 

 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

You have to ruin it don't you Jacko 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



ballamar
05 January 2019 16:29:02
Siberian high stronger on this op run something to keep an eye on
fairweather
05 January 2019 16:48:15

 

”Really poor”?

The mean goes below the LTA in a week’s time and stays there for the rest of the run. The main cluster is then between -5 and -10C with plenty of ppn spikes. I’d say it’s the best ensemble we’ve seen all winter. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Except there isn't a "main" cluster. The mean of an even spread of results is -4C. At that range and with that spread why are you so sure all the mild runs are wrong and the cold ones are right? However -4C mean is a pretty good starting point and there is certainly a colder trend later in the month. IF the cold options do verify it could be pretty good. 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
flippi01
05 January 2019 16:52:32
Having avoided chart watching for a day or two I was really hoping to see a clear decisive cold signal in the ens - looks like getting cooler maybe - but the strong cliff edge drop off we often see pre a notable cold spell is absent.
Ally Pally Snowman
05 January 2019 16:52:49

A little wedge  of heights again at 300h near Iceland but its all we need as the 850s are so cold to our NE. very January 2013 which was great for the SE/EA 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
marting
05 January 2019 16:53:41
Some consistency in the FI stages of the GFS runs at least. Another cold end to the run - onto the ensembles/ tables for scrutiny in 30 mins!!

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Whether Idle
05 January 2019 16:56:31

Having avoided chart watching for a day or two I was really hoping to see a clear decisive cold signal in the ens - looks like getting cooler maybe - but the strong cliff edge drop off we often see pre a notable cold spell is absent.

Originally Posted by: flippi01 

Indeed, looks like close to average very standard fayre with cold and milder interludes in a generally westerly flow.  I see things continuing in the same vein for some time. That's not to say there wont be wintry showers around on windward coasts and some back edge sleet to keep the wintry feel going at times.  All very standard, but at least its not a mild horror show.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
05 January 2019 17:13:17

.

 

We look like keeping our Bartlett High at least upto the Monday the 14th January for all of us who enjoy static dry mundane weather conditions.

Good to see cold and snow blizzards weather over Iceland and NE as well as East and Central to SE Europe away from France and the UK for the next 10 days ahem.

I can see the NAD Shutdown staring at us on today's 12z, ICON and GFS runs, but the ICON only goes out to Saturday 12th I think or is it Sunday 13th...

Newfoundland PV Low Pressure at 168-192 hours that GFS and ECMWF seem to show us right now, could bring us some much needed heavy rain on 15th and 16th January IMBY!!.

Western and Northern UK could or not get the cold air from Iceland and North Atlantic before then, but ECMWF 00z run unlike the 12z GFS does give Scotland some early taste of NE Europe's snowy weather... but the GFS delays that..

Still plenty of time, watch this SPACE for further breaking NEWS.

By about the 18th and 19th January 2018 we in the UK could as today's 12z GFS showing us, blocking Greenland and North Atlantic High, with very cold North and NE Winds being shown.

I say it as I see it.

Will it or won't it?..

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
05 January 2019 17:16:41

Having avoided chart watching for a day or two I was really hoping to see a clear decisive cold signal in the ens - looks like getting cooler maybe - but the strong cliff edge drop off we often see pre a notable cold spell is absent.

Originally Posted by: flippi01 

 

Maybe I am seeing something that you are not. 

Doh.  This winter IS the one that could deliver, and it seems our wait will pay off, a decent cold SNAP and Beast of the Norway and Sweden and North Sea is being shown in 11 days time.

Beckons our future..

The NE England contingent will be pleased to hear.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

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