That does not mean the operational run is wrong though.  All that the ensemble run is saying is that it wouldn't take much for a different outcome at days 9 and 10.

Enjoy the ride....

That NAO graph is pretty depressing. 

Nice easterly on the ICON but poor GFS, GEM and UKMO .

My optimism from a couple of days ago has gone. 

Actually just having another look at the UKMO it could go easterly at day 7 difficult to say but its not poor. Its better than the GFS. 

GFS Para following ICON with an day 7 easterly

Martin

Based on this morning’s output I would still put the chance of midmonth cold as high. There do also seem to be growing hints of something interesting a few days earlier too (around day 6 or 7).

Yes nice ECM it does love a day 10 tease though. Just wish the GFS would improve its been a real Scrooge all winter.

When you have HP around for so long in mid winter the opportunity can come at short notice. I suppose everyone hangs onto the met forecast,which will change when the models do and the models change a lot

Oh I know what the graph shows, just interested to know how anyone can infer from it that the Op has no support at all from the ensembles (which is what was originally stated).

I’m commenting on the models only and will leave the Met Office forecast analysis to others. My view is based on what the models the public have access to have been and continue to show (GFSP yet again but it also has more support across the models). 

Re. The op GFS vs the ensemble data I have a feeling it I see slightly out of sync with the dataset for some reason on Meteociel. It is Motrin line on the other sources. For example 

WZ http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSENS00_57_-2_205.png

Meteociel http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

Edit: Looking at the latter link it seems to me that it is possibly yesterday’s 00z GFS op data that is plotted against this morning’s ensemble data.

ECM looks promising at day ten........ However we all know day ten ECM charts rarely verify from the Euro. The rest are a bit meh bar the now new messiah on the block the ICON.

In any season these strong High Pressure cells seem to give them problems as our default weather is a steady progression - usually more or less from the west.
It's very common for a block to be more persistent than expected, as for subtle changes in position forget it beyond 5 days or so.

Havent posted for a few days here other than to have added that link summerising why the GFS will have been so poor in this period of model watching, indeed scan back through this thread just 5 days ago & every bit of commentary around the GFS forecast in terms of 'return to zonal conditions' & 'zonal reset' etc etc all turned out to be totally wrong, if it was a game of Cricket the GFS ball would certainly be a 'wide' - although a footnote to the future - the FV3 has been 'ok'

As mentioned on the otherside, today is the day the models will get a grip on the 'non phasing' event of the 2 atlantic lows around T72, as the lower resolution models begin to resolve the seperation of these 2 areas of energy ( thats every model apart from the Euros ) then so we should see better amplification around 120-144 leading to a more uniform model suite.
The EPS & GEFS clustering at day 7 overnight both made significant adjustments NW with the developing High at day 7 & I expect this to continue today - so a day of upgrades today-
I think day 6 & day 7 will bring the -8c isotherm widely into the UK- Maybe -9/-10 into the NE as an exception- it then holds in situ as a NE flow develops.

So chilly till about Tues - weds then much colder from the NE with some of the white stuff...

It is interesting how much colder the Para Op has been compared to the old GFS recently I believe it takes over soon by March? Less Atlantic bias perhaps?

I think so but it will take a lot more data before we can make a clear conclusion. It has definitely been very consistent about the midmonth cold. Whether it is right or not is a different matter and I wouldn’t entirely rule out the scenario Steve mentions.

Indeed, Martin.

Deepest FI though it is, the back end of the GFS 00z op runs would almost certainly deliver snowfall to lower ground in many northern areas by the looks of it. It actually reminds me of the set-up we had for a few days in the middle of last January, which gave my location it's greatest amount of snow of last winter prior to the arrival of the Beast at the end of February.

ICON 06z = great start to the days runs!! 

It makes me wonder what things will look like this time tomorrow on the model output.

Looks good for you doc- how much NE element do you need to get the showers across you?

( GFS 90 chasing down the ICON finally )

A direct northerly is actually the best option for here and, given recent output, I’d say there is a chance of a cold one at some stage in the next few weeks in the middle of what seems to me to be a more likely NEly scenario.

All very interesting and as you say, so far, the 06z GFS op run is following that trend up to day 4/5. Hopefully the whole run will be good.