Better UKMO 120  sorry, can't post Chart.

UKMO not bad 

Chance of snow showers just about anywhere middle of next week?

I think their assessment for next week is pretty much spot on for next week based on the output we are seeing across much of the NWP today ? 

Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

A cold north to northwesterly flow is likely to dominate early next week, with showers or perhaps more organised rain at times, mainly affecting northern and eastern areas, perhaps turning wintry over northern hills. Generally, bright, cold and breezy with the risk of gales in the east. 

A very interesting run so far, not too dissimilar to this mornings, with perhaps hints of a downgrade.  however this feature to our north west has me interested.  Just south of Greenland.  a wedge of high pressure.  between two LP's... that could be the energy we need to flip to blocking and LP's to the south...

we will see

edit - nope.  Block over the UK steers it all north

Maybe will see something in FI

Ah that is their forecast, I was talking about the blog.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2019/01/03/is-there-another-beast-from-the-east-on-the-way/

12z GEM is also playing up the North Sea low next week.

Those uppers look cold enough for something potentially wintry over northern high ground for a time too.

Yes, the GEM snow risk is much less widespread GFS. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=126&chartname=ukpreciptyperatec&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type%20rate

UKMO 120 hours. 

Doc could see some wintry showers from this and some other parts of the far NE before the high pressure sinks SE'wards. 

Yes where did that come from? - Looks like this HP is ridging further north and west each run with low pressure systems edging further westwards, the 12z for Tues and Wed's next week now looks like we are in a brief northerly air stream...see the gradual upgrade ...esp since this mornings 00z's run! Before we had that low pressure sinking southwards into Scandinavia and Baltics then central and eastern Europe but now it's edging down the north sea!! It's as if the HP has retrogressed each run! Take a look below...? - Look forward to seeing the 12z ensembles.

This mornings! 00z

Then the 06z

latest 12z:

Yes, you’re right Steve and while not quite appearing “out of nowhere”, this situation has developed rather quickly. I wonder the changes will continue and come the time what the actual situation will be! It’s certainly very interesting. 

Remarkable turnaround potential for significant snow if the GFS 12z is on the money. Borderline 850s but inland should be ok.

If you want to see some mad winter output, look no further than the GFSP in FI:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

A proper old school Arctic blast and only (sic.) 8 days away 😉

Some absolutely extraordinary GEFS best and snowiest yet.

EXACTLY! Esp after a boring mild start to winter with little frost and virtually no snow, along with dire model outputs - it now looks like something interesting will crop up and soon! Will be an interesting few weeks of model watching and weather coming up at long last! But will we get cross model agreement? time will tell. One thing will be for certain is that if we do get an easterly end of January then this cold spell  should be more potent and longer lasting than the one which occurred last Feb/March - esp as it will be occurring a month or so earlier in winter.

Yeah but FI is rubbish! 

Not bad, but many runs suggest a significant warm-up after a cold snap next week.

Hopefully the cold cluster will grow.

The situation is very fluid now Rob. Significant persistent Strat warming, reversal and modelled potential ‘tri pole’ PV split causing mayhem in the NWP. Add in P7 MJO and we have huge  volatility - just look what’s happened over only the last 24hrs.

The predicting arrival of big model swings and boom charts is here - expect more of the same in the next few days.

Snow in areas by next Weds a distinct possibility.

Can't help thinking tonight's GEFS12z have a "Del Boy" look to the cold spell. 

I was thinking something more along the lines of 'buy one, get one free'

 Possibly. But I'm thinking our jelly high could tease us for a good while yet.