The Weather Outlook

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Saint Snow
01 January 2019 22:14:29

Finally here is the updated table I posted yesterday that now includes the 2018 data. This shows the average prediction error for the last 10 years for those members who have been in the competition for the whole of that period (with a maximum of one missed year which is indicated in orange).

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Direct link to larger table TABLE

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Where's the results for 2009? 

That was an especially fantastic competition year.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Snowshoe
01 January 2019 23:53:35
Congratulations to Darren S, and many thanks to Global Warming for running this competition.

I'm again astonished at how well I did considering my predictions were mostly just guess work.

Darren S
02 January 2019 10:28:17

Congratulations to Darren S, and many thanks to Global Warming for running this competition.

I'm again astonished at how well I did considering my predictions were mostly just guess work.

Originally Posted by: Snowshoe 

Very modest, but I've just noticed that you won the 2017 contest, and came within a whisker of back-to-back wins! I'd say you are the person to beat, rather than me. 

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

redmoons
03 January 2019 18:32:13
Congratulations Darren :)

Many thanks GW for your hard work, very much appreciated. Surprised I am 5th in the accumulated error every year.

Does anyone know where I can get a list of all the weather records broken in 2018?

Cheers,

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWATFO32 

Bertwhistle
03 January 2019 19:43:44

Actually, looking at GWs table, 12 degrees out means just a degree a month out.

Have I missed the annual (ie year's CET) prediction outcomes somewhere?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Global Warming
03 January 2019 21:31:12

Actually, looking at GWs table, 12 degrees out means just a degree a month out.

Have I missed the annual (ie year's CET) prediction outcomes somewhere?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yes the details are in the annual CET thread funnily enough 

Bertwhistle
03 January 2019 21:39:49

 

Yes the details are in the annual CET thread funnily enough 

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Whoops.

(in very small print): thank you.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Saint Snow
04 January 2019 17:11:35

Ahem!

 

 

  

Where's the results for 2009? 

That was an especially fantastic competition year.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2019 17:18:56

Ahem!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

  I think we all know you won it that year.  GW apologised to you when he explained he hadn’t included 2009 as there weren’t many people in it!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2019 17:21:57

I have been asked about the performance of regular participants to the CET competition over the years. I have gone back to 2010 and calculated the average prediction error for those members who have participated every year since 2010. I ignored 2009, which was the first year I ran the competition (because there were too few participants - sorry Saint). I have allowed one missed year otherwise it would be a very short list. For those who did not make it to the end of one year I have used the average prediction error of all the others in the table for that specific year (this figures are highlighted in orange).

Here is the table - there are 18 people listed. No surprise that Darren S is comfortably in the lead. This lead will be extended when the 2018 results are added.

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Direct link to larger table TABLE

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Here you go Saint! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Saint Snow
04 January 2019 17:29:54

Here you go Saint! 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

Yes, well... I should think so.

 

[mutters to self] one bloody moment of glory... snatched away... blah, blah [/mutters to self]

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2019 19:09:00

 

 

Yes, well... I should think so.

 

[mutters to self] one bloody moment of glory... snatched away... blah, blah [/mutters to self]

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

   Yes, I know all that and I give you credit for it, so your talents have not gone unnoticed!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Darren S
04 January 2019 19:19:37

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

ROFL! Had to be you...

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Global Warming
04 January 2019 20:13:53

I was also responsible for the last two months' predictions having to be PM'd (no all predictions, obvs) as I was leading going into December and cynically waited for my two nearest (only!) challengers to post their guesses, then calculated the forecast I'd need to make to guarantee I'd win. I think GW sussed me out straight away, but there was nowt in the rules to stop me doing that. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I remember it only too well! I absolutely twigged right away what was going on, but fair play to you for having the nous to realise that you could make a prediction to guarantee you a win. So I had no option but to let it slide and instead focus on how to close the loophole for the next year.

Global Warming
04 January 2019 21:14:03

Here is the detailed data for December which I didn't post with the charts earlier in the week

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FULL SIZE TABLE

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FULL SIZE TABLE

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