Annual CET competition - Final table
No surprise to see Darren S topping the table this year and winning the gold medal. He has been in first place since April and never outside the top three all year. So big congratulations to Darren.
The winning figure of 6.69C is the third best since the competition started in 2009. In fact it is not Darren's best result as he finished with 6.25C when winning the competition for the first time in 2014. Whether Idle's record of 5.99C remains intact.
Shoeshoe sneaks into second place, recording a highest position in the table this year. Gusty finishes in third. The top three were well clear of the rest.
Some big movers further down the top 10 including Devonian up five to fifth. Hungry Tiger climbed 10 to 15th after winning the December competition.
sussex snow magnet and Hippydave also recorded their highest position of the year with several others equalling their highest position from earlier in the year.
Despite winning the competition to predict the CET for the whole of 2018 (see separate thread), springsunshine takes the wooden spoon in the cumulative monthly competition.
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Direct link to larger table TABLE
The tables below show each person's position in the table for every month of the year (with the highest position shown in red) and also the monthly prediction errors for each person. A figure highlighted in orange denotes a missed prediction where the error was calculated using the formula set down in the competition rules. A figure in yellow denotes an error of 0.50C or less.
I have also included a figure for the root mean squared error in addition to the absolute error. This alternative calculation penalises large errors to a greater extent (due to the squared part of the formula). So consistently low predictions are the way to get a low figure under this method rather than say several exactly correct predictions but also with a few quite large errors. Interestingly under this method Snowshoe would have won due to having no errors above 1C.
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Direct link to larger table TABLE
Finally here is the updated table I posted yesterday that now includes the 2018 data. This shows the average prediction error for the last 10 years for those members who have been in the competition for the whole of that period (with a maximum of one missed year which is indicated in orange).
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Edited by user
01 January 2019 13:14:14
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