Not sifted through the latest data but at a glance little looks to have changed in the last 36 hours. Latest GEFS seems quite consistent with a trend towards more changeable and average conditions in January.  

PS: Unfortunately I have sifted through the last MO thread and will be deleting accounts this morning. 

Take home message - GFS isn’t the only model and the SSW/Strat displacement/zonal wind reversal/QTR is now only JUST starting to be factored.

 Your account will still be active after today! But honestly I have busted a gut to keep TWO on the road this year as some people will know. There has been issue after issue for me to contend with. Despite that all that some of the idiots who post here see is a free service where they can post crap on Christmas Day of all times. Really it is pathetic and accounts will be going unfortunately.

EC 10 day mean still not encouraging at all

Chart of the day is definitely the ukmo day 7. Looks like the beginning off a significant cold spell. Some support from GEM and ECM but it really would be one enormous flip for it to verify. 

I find it hard to get a clear picture from these charts, given their tropical focus, but here you are: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2018/2018122600/ukm2.2019010200.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

Doc has posted it. Prob not worth worrying about as very different to other output sadly

Although the deepest FI section of the GFS should always be taken with rather a large dose of salt, it is not without interest this morning and seems to be following a similar theme to a few GFS FI runs yesterday; i.e the HP gradually pulling away into the atlantic and allowing a blast from the NS or N initially. Let's see if this theme is maintained in the later runs today.

I for one am determined to stay grounded and conciliatory and will only post on what I see. My message to those (like me) who have been close to the mark in the past is make the most of what we have here. A brilliant, well managed forum and a terrific website.

We will get something of interest in the new year I am sure..Off topic here but I remain enthused by the consistency of the MetO long ranger which seems unusually confident of something unfolding next month.

My ‘cold goggles’ are on today. 😉

The UKMO and ICON appear to offer the best solutions for a QTR this morning. What I find fascinating about these events is watching how quick, or not as the case maybe the models latch onto these warming’s. Great model viewing regardless of whether we end up with the mother of all payloads

yes crucial runs over the next 48 to 72 hours if we are going to see anything wintery make it into the output. Things can and do change very quickly as David pointed out previously, let’s see what unfolds 

Brian, Im sure everyone that posts here & NW are grateful for the opportunity to post on any weather forum-

If you want to ban me be my guest- however before the stick comes out I would just remind you that despite having a go at Ian for his absolute stupidity for just following the GFS - everything I post is related to the model thread & in the spirit of what the forum was made for - IE discussing the weather / models.

Remember the same people that cause the issues are the same people You & other moderators have banned time & again only to allow them to return- yet their motives are different which is generally to wind people up.

If the 'wind' up merchants were simply removed then there would rarely be any issues on here.

I tell you what, for the sake of my account I will no longer quote Ians posts- to avoid it having to be moderated...

I will however continue to post here what I believe the right outcome will be-

@Matty H the primary analogue for -AO for Jan is 1966.

Thanks.

Doc - let's hope that ICELANDIC high on chart which you posted in the last model output thread strengthens from 3rd Jan and this is the start of a trend to something colder.

Brian? Hope I don't get my account deleted? - Have so many links to various model/ data like sites and informative PM's from other members too since 2010 - I have data ha!! :)

Get ready for a wild ride.

Yes, I think we are seeing a shift towards a +ve PNA and NAO that will bring the unsettled spell that the METO were talking about for early January. Extended modelling shows this continuing with alternating mild to below average days as systems move through quickly.

Worryingly going forward the developing westerly QBO influence correlates poorly with Strat warmings impacting on the mid latitudes, at the very best it means any cold spell is usually short lived.

GFS has stepped in the right direction- 06z has residual heights over greenland steering the jet SE with no roaring 'zonal' flow-

Another 24 hours & things should look a fair bit different...

A couple of clarifications:

1) Accounts are now deleted instead of being banned/blocked. Better for you because it means your account info is not stored on my servers. Better for me because I don't have to worry about storing it. Everyone's a winner! 

2) Applications for membership have been processed manually for the last year or two. I set a high barrier for entry! 

At t192 still looks to me like the heights to the North flatten out and the best we can get (at present) is a colder NW flow? 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

 That said, jet is weaker and on a more SE than E track at this point;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=5&carte=1

yes the jet profile is very interesting - perhaps a brief window of opportunity to provide something more likeable for cold weather fans?