Disappointing in terms of ensemble output IMBY!

-In terms of GFS ENS PTB 3 is about as close to UKMO as it gets...

I don't fully buy into the idea that the models struggle with propagating events down from the stratosphere. Remember that they have no concept of "stratosphere" or "troposphere". They simply model the atmosphere in 3D. Nonetheless I'll not discount that fully and will wait to see how things funnel out, but at the moment the GEFS stamps look very ordinary at 384.

now look at todays first model out the blocks...

Of course more rubbish from me?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&map=2&archive=0 

I didnt design the model ...

There are people who post with an slmost child-like enthusiasm for cold set-ups, usually with charts (forecasts or historical) to try to back up their prognosis.

Surely that is an essence of the MO thread?

Other people seem to delight in sneering at others who scour charts for cold outcomes. It's not the posting of mild/wet charts in response that's the problem, but the tone of posts and, more importantly, snide digs at the cold posters. Some in particular seem to have an agenda of unpleasantness. I'd also say that those being digged at, they have some justification in responding.

The result is that for lay enthusiasts like me, it's impossible to discern the true weather picture from the MO thread, rendering it pretty useless a lot of the time. 

I hope, Brian, you use your wisdom well when you wield your axe.

Looks very promising. Nice to see, and hopefully a continuation of the trend you and others have been pointing to.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

UKmet very similar - deep cold hitting Northern Europe with loads of snow, the cold swiping the east of the UK

Room for plenty of upgrades 144-168

I like looking at the ensembles mean charts as they are a good indicator of general trend, and tend to, in my opinion, be relatively consistent compared to the individual op runs. Of course they can and do flip, but assuming that the latest run is onto something, then we should see this current high collapse towards the end of the first week in Jan as lows begin to dive bomb into Europe. 

Check out the GEM, which gets even closer, developing a discrete high to the north (as does GFS, FWIW, but GFS' soon sinks)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

It seems slowly, ever so slowly, the models are continuing to ramp up the amplifcation to our NW in the T+144 timeframe. I'm not paying too much attention though until this time tomorrow, as I'm sure most on here know I'm always extra-suspicious of the models at this time of year!

Another progressive run from the GFS in FI with low heights to the North.

Yes, but what about the UKMO 12z, Ian? This is how it ends at 144hrs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

I think as Brian points out with the 6z data, if something is brewing then at least some of the GEFS would be picking up on it but all we are seeing at the moment is progressive zonality towards mid January.

Some of the GEFS were picking up on "It" on the 6z.

"One Swallow", and all that, but let's see where we go with the next few runs. I would not look at any set of ENS in isolation - the trend is your friend in these situations.

Mid-January is an eternity away in weather forecasting terms at the moment though and the furthest ahead that he current GFS runs will go in the early part of the second week. GEFS are, I suspect, rather erractic just like the op runs and we are still some way from knowing how the SSW currently taking place will ultimately play out in terms of what happens further into January.

For me, we should be taking FI with an even larger dose of salt at the moment than we would be otherwise.

Lack of density from Gfs output across recent runs post 150hrs

Model agreement post those hrs is very limited

Post strat warming conflict GFS\ ECM....

On those merits one can assume what seems immediate output(post 150 hrs) becomes extremely deterministic....

I know retaliation is self defence and can be justified but it really would be better if the jibes were ignored. The kids will get fed up of getting no attention eventually, or they’ll drive themselves under the axe.  

Yes the last 36 hours has seen that high morph & develop in the models - The UKMO being the most keen, although the ECM 12z yesterday was good--

GEM gets the -6c line into the SE at around 168, cant see the UKMO being to far behind-

All eyes on the ECM...

Yes GFS Op run is showing mild zonal weather until mid Jan with a strong PV. Yet the latest on weatheriscool shows quite a crash in the ZONAL WINDS with many ensemble members reversing the zonal winds going negative at 10hpa!.

But then again the AO looks going exceptionally positive - which is very unusual given that we would have had a SSW by early Jan: 

Take your point, but a couple of things IMO to remember on Aircraft OBS:

• They provide coverage/depth of data in areas where static OBS are not available - especially with regards to altitude, and particularly over areas like the Atlantic where coverage is normally only surface/space based and sparse
• That upstream coverage over the Atlantic is often crucial on the development of downstream patterns that will affect the UK

GEF12z update looks pretty consistent. Cold weather fans can find crumbs of comfort but a lot of the runs are a complete horror show. I'll reserve my judgement until tomorrow because there is a shortage of data at the moment.