Merry Xmas to all on TWO.

TBH, I think we are still some way from knowing whether or not the SSW is going to be of any use to us. As far as I know, it is still ongoing at this moment in time and it may be some days yet before the models begin to properly factor in whatever effects it has. My feeling is that at the moment, it is probably still to early to tell.

EC Day 10 mean about as bad as it gets for coldies. Another very mild winter now looking likely probably followed by more record heat in 2019 as our planet goes mad

And a very Merry Christmas from the 06z GFS

Happy Christmas to TWO - big things are around the corner (and I don’t mean the size of my mince pie induced paunch) 😂

Have A Very Merry Mild Christmas Everyone --Have a nice day --  longing for cold - it will most likely come at Easter  

MODELS/CHARTS

So the next 10 days sets the standard for the following 8 weeks

Oh please do me a favour 

Its 5.8c currently, hardly mild 

Don’t react Marcus. He’ll be back when the snow starts to fall. Strat. charts have improved this morning. MJO racing through phase 6 (phase 7/8 promotes Atlantic sector HLB) and EC46 although not so good weeks 5 on it wobbles more than CFS on a blancmange 

🎄👍

After the long, hot, stagnant Summer, I was hoping that this Winter would offer recompense with some proper cool and wild weather. Instead, it has been a 'groundhog day' scenario since the Autumn and looking increasingly likely to continue that way until another long, drawn out Summer arrives. 

I was thinking that the 00z this morning will be the last for 24-48 hours not to be affected by a shortfall in amounts of data.

I'm sure the charts will look better this evening after an enjoyable day of good food, alcohol and good company.

ECM 00z ensemble suite looks to be keeping the high to our south: the cold cluster has weakened and average temperatures look favourite at the moment.

Usual caveat applies - the ensembles only test the stability of the starting position; unknowns remain unknowns.

IMO the models are probably going to be in a state of some flux wrt the longer term until such times as they have figured out the effects of the SSW on the prevailing pattern. Those who followed the model output closely back in February will no doubt remember how much chopping and changing there was among the models we can see until they eventually all came round to agreeing on the likely outcome. I feel it will probably be the same this time around.

It's one run Kieren, emphasis on "one run".

Also see my above post.

How? It's consistently showing blocking over or just to our south, bringing mostly calm and rather cool conditions to most of England and Wales, away from the far west and north.

The latter stages are showing a signal for the block to pull away and bring a change from the north-west although that's too far out and uncertain at this stage.

The models are also echoing the Met Office forecasts which predicted settled weather for the south into the New Year.

I don't disagree about that at all. That said, that is precisely why I made my earlier comment about the models being in something of a state of flux at the moment and likely will be until they get to grips properly with the SSW and how it ultimately plays out in terms of synoptics.

It was the same back in February. We had a few very poor operational runs from some of the models during the early to middle part of that month, and whenever we got a poor GFS or ECM op run there were some people here saying "It's all over for cold". We all know what ended up happening eventually. Not saying there will definitely be an action replay of late February this winter, but as long as the MetO (for instance) continue to think things will change during January then I will continue to keep the faith, even if no-one else does.

🤡💩🍖🐸🤪👹🤖😾🧠👳‍♂️🧕🏿👅🎅🏿👼🏼💅🏻👯‍♂️👙🐔🐽🕸🐌

Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

Yes, groundhog day continues.

We will probably get a cold snap at some point but this is not going to be a classic winter as some were predicting

Nothing to do with your lack of data though 😉