The Weather Outlook

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David M Porter
25 December 2018 09:36:38

Merry Xmas to all on TWO.

TBH, I think we are still some way from knowing whether or not the SSW is going to be of any use to us. As far as I know, it is still ongoing at this moment in time and it may be some days yet before the models begin to properly factor in whatever effects it has. My feeling is that at the moment, it is probably still to early to tell.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

The Beast from the East
25 December 2018 10:40:22

EC Day 10 mean about as bad as it gets for coldies. Another very mild winter now looking likely probably followed by more record heat in 2019 as our planet goes mad


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

doctormog
25 December 2018 10:55:23

And a very Merry Christmas from the 06z GFS

 


marco 79
25 December 2018 11:02:47
FI delivers in the far reaches...nice to look at for 6hrs on Christmas day...let's see where this is placed in the Ens...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
nsrobins
25 December 2018 11:09:07
No point in considering the latter reaches of GFS according to some. Although to be fair there might be the odd balloon missing this morning πŸ˜‰

Happy Christmas to TWO - big things are around the corner (and I don’t mean the size of my mince pie induced paunch) πŸ˜‚


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

sizzle
25 December 2018 11:17:01

Have A Very Merry Mild Christmas Everyone --Have a nice day --  longing for cold - it will most likely come at Easter  

MODELS/CHARTS

Gooner
25 December 2018 11:33:03

EC Day 10 mean about as bad as it gets for coldies. Another very mild winter now looking likely probably followed by more record heat in 2019 as our planet goes mad

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

So the next 10 days sets the standard for the following 8 weeks

Oh please do me a favour 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
25 December 2018 11:34:06

Have A Very Merry Mild Christmas Everyone --Have a nice day --  longing for cold - it will most likely come at Easter  

MODELS/CHARTS

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

Its 5.8c currently, hardly mild 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



nsrobins
25 December 2018 11:37:13

 

So the next 10 days sets the standard for the following 8 weeks

Oh please do me a favour 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Don’t react Marcus. He’ll be back when the snow starts to fall. Strat. charts have improved this morning. MJO racing through phase 6 (phase 7/8 promotes Atlantic sector HLB) and EC46 although not so good weeks 5 on it wobbles more than CFS on a blancmange 

πŸŽ„πŸ‘


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Chunky Pea
25 December 2018 11:39:09

EC Day 10 mean about as bad as it gets for coldies. Another very mild winter now looking likely probably followed by more record heat in 2019 as our planet goes mad

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

After the long, hot, stagnant Summer, I was hoping that this Winter would offer recompense with some proper cool and wild weather. Instead, it has been a 'groundhog day' scenario since the Autumn and looking increasingly likely to continue that way until another long, drawn out Summer arrives. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Solar Cycles
25 December 2018 11:50:40

 

Don’t react Marcus. He’ll be back when the snow starts to fall. Strat. charts have improved this morning. MJO racing through phase 6 (phase 7/8 promotes Atlantic sector HLB) and EC46 although not so good weeks 5 on it wobbles more than CFS on a blancmange 

πŸŽ„πŸ‘

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

This..... πŸ‘πŸ»

Gandalf The White
25 December 2018 12:28:04

No point in considering the latter reaches of GFS according to some. Although to be fair there might be the odd balloon missing this morning πŸ˜‰
Happy Christmas to TWO - big things are around the corner (and I don’t mean the size of my mince pie induced paunch) πŸ˜‚

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

I was thinking that the 00z this morning will be the last for 24-48 hours not to be affected by a shortfall in amounts of data.

I'm sure the charts will look better this evening after an enjoyable day of good food, alcohol and good company.

 

ECM 00z ensemble suite looks to be keeping the high to our south: the cold cluster has weakened and average temperatures look favourite at the moment.

Usual caveat applies - the ensembles only test the stability of the starting position; unknowns remain unknowns.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Rob K
25 December 2018 15:25:04
No comments on the GFS 6z then?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

roadrunnerajn
25 December 2018 16:23:49
Last FI chart OK otherwise very average.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
moomin75
25 December 2018 16:31:53
Not even lack of data can save us at the moment. All very boring. zzzz
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

moomin75
25 December 2018 16:47:20
An absolutely horrendous 12z. This is not looking great at all.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

David M Porter
25 December 2018 16:53:06

IMO the models are probably going to be in a state of some flux wrt the longer term until such times as they have figured out the effects of the SSW on the prevailing pattern. Those who followed the model output closely back in February will no doubt remember how much chopping and changing there was among the models we can see until they eventually all came round to agreeing on the likely outcome. I feel it will probably be the same this time around.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
25 December 2018 16:56:17

An absolutely horrendous 12z. This is not looking great at all.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

It's one run Kieren, emphasis on "one run".

Also see my above post.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

moomin75
25 December 2018 17:00:40

 

It's one run Kieren, emphasis on "one run".

Also see my above post.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gandalf The White
25 December 2018 17:10:20

True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

How? It's consistently showing blocking over or just to our south, bringing mostly calm and rather cool conditions to most of England and Wales, away from the far west and north.

The latter stages are showing a signal for the block to pull away and bring a change from the north-west although that's too far out and uncertain at this stage.

The models are also echoing the Met Office forecasts which predicted settled weather for the south into the New Year.

 


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



David M Porter
25 December 2018 17:12:04

True David. But this is the worst GFS for a considerable time. Absolutely horrific.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I don't disagree about that at all. That said, that is precisely why I made my earlier comment about the models being in something of a state of flux at the moment and likely will be until they get to grips properly with the SSW and how it ultimately plays out in terms of synoptics.

It was the same back in February. We had a few very poor operational runs from some of the models during the early to middle part of that month, and whenever we got a poor GFS or ECM op run there were some people here saying "It's all over for cold". We all know what ended up happening eventually. Not saying there will definitely be an action replay of late February this winter, but as long as the MetO (for instance) continue to think things will change during January then I will continue to keep the faith, even if no-one else does.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Whether Idle
25 December 2018 17:44:11
Merry Christmas to all model watchers. 🍺🍺🍺 2018-19 certainly has the potential to be one of the modest winters on record given the turbo boost that December has delivered. Looking like a mild finish to December. The monthly CET could be sitting around 7c come December 31st. 🧐

πŸ€‘πŸ’©πŸ–πŸΈπŸ€ͺπŸ‘ΉπŸ€–πŸ˜ΎπŸ§ πŸ‘³β€β™‚οΈπŸ§•πŸΏπŸ‘…πŸŽ…πŸΏπŸ‘ΌπŸΌπŸ’…πŸ»πŸ‘―β€β™‚οΈπŸ‘™πŸ”πŸ½πŸ•ΈπŸŒ


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Shropshire
25 December 2018 18:26:17

Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
The Beast from the East
25 December 2018 18:39:56

Poor GFS and ensembles - that post day 9 sinker gaining ground.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Yes, groundhog day continues.

We will probably get a cold snap at some point but this is not going to be a classic winter as some were predicting

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
25 December 2018 18:48:01

Morning all, really grim this morning if it’s cold your after. Should be dry though, hopefully with a little sunshine if we are lucky.
Time to leave model watching for a while, this is about as dire as it can get.
Happy Christmas everyone

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Wow. Shall we all just flip ourselves now? I’d say there’s strong propensity for jolly good fun in model watching over the next few days or even weeks. 

Nothing to do with your lack of data though πŸ˜‰

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