If the bingo words are: grey, cool, cloudy and boring... 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I agree. Not getting excited about the early signs been on the coast. 

Originally Posted by: scarborough whiteout 

Date wise and set up wise, I hear Bing Crosby crooning in the background.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Agreed, although to be fair away from eastern coastal areas this ECM op run could indeed be wintry at times http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Appreciating they'll be a lot of moderation over the North Sea but the T216 chart does at least have the Coldest 850's over Scotland

-8 or so should really beef the coastal drizzle up

Down here it'll be interesting to see if we get any wintry stuff out of the programmed set up. It's dancing around the point where you'd expect to see at least some flakes falling and if the dp's are low enough I reckon I should see some snow falling if nout else, given I'm a bit inland and have a little bit of height on my side <shrug>

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

I wouldn’t get hung up over the possibility of snow in th next 7-10 days, I think a few in the SE could well see a flake or two but for me it looks a predominantly dry set up for most as it stands now. Of course one would expect upgrades/downgrades nearer the time.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I don't care that much whether it snows or not in the next couple of weeks - seasonally cold and frosty in the run up to Christmas would be fine. What I cannot stomach is our usual mild and wet dirge leading up to the festive season.

ECM looking good - if the easterly makes it to t+96 with a good Scandi HP in place, I will begin to take the prospects of a decent build up to Christmas seriously.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Indeed, if we can’t get snow crisp frosty sunny days are the next best thing. 😎

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Totally agree. I had to go to Wimbledon on Saturday and they had a Christmas fair down the broadway. The warmth was stomach churning.

happy with cold and frosty at the moment. As ever, get the cold in first and worry about the snow later.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Looks like a warming trend on the ECM ENS towards the end and again the op run was anomalous. Would seem to tie in quite well with GEFS.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looks like a warming trend on the ECM ENS towards the end and again the op run was anomalous. Would seem to tie in quite well with GEFS.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looks like a warming trend on the ECM ENS towards the end and again the op run was anomalous. Would seem to tie in quite well with GEFS.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Brian, that isn't the correct interpretion of the Op and the ensemble.   As you know the Op Takes the opening position and yields an expected evolution. The ensemble run tests the sensitivity of the evolution to tiny changes in the starting data. To say the Op is 'anomalous' is therefore misleading:  surely the message is that the evolution shown by the Op is unusually risky by Day 10? In any event the 2m temperature chart below suggests the Op remained within the cold cluster.

Anway, here is the ECM 12z ensemble for London

ECM and GFS in remarkable and rare agreement right out to day 9.  A lot of the uncertainty shown for early next week in the 00z has vanished again.

Quite a strong signal for a possibly brief Atlantic breakthrough on 14th but little to suggest a sustained milder spell and a cluster giving colder conditions again is evident - although not a strong signal.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White