Its interesting but its all tosh as its > 120 hours. 

All this is reinforced by the fact that the GEFS 12z are all over the place and the pro's are dis-regarding anything significant from east.

We've been here too many times to remember.

Lets see where we stand with all of this on Friday evening

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Its interesting but its all tosh as its > 120 hours. 

All this is reinforced by the fact that the GEFS 12z are all over the place and the pro's are dis-regarding anything significant from east.

We've been here too many times to remember.

Lets see where we stand with all of this on Friday evening

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

At the risk of sounding unduly negative the more I see from the charts at the moment and the more I think at best this will be a 72 hours affair before the High retreats/sinks and the Atlantic comes back through.

This could be a FI thing where they underplay the block but currently it just looks like one of those set ups where everything is moving east, rather than HP moving in from the East which would give a longer cold shot.

Yes we may get lucky with the HP inflating in a place conducive to getting some cold air to the UK but as the ECM Op run shows, everything just backs away from us leaving the Atlantic to move back in with some frontal snowfall before the inevitable return of milder air.

Would be entirely fine with being proved wrong though

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

 Id agree at the moment, it looks like a 3 day affair IF it happens.  50/50 on the initial Scandi High given the model divergence, at best.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

'If' it does come off we will probably be looking at a December 1997 event comprising a quick ridge and dose of WAA, a 1 day easterly, a 2 hour snow event from a front pushing up from the SW with atlantic dominance soon after.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 Yes, something like 1997, possibly.  Do you remember the "winter" that followed? 19c in February.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Well some very interesting runs tonight but we must remember that there is no mention of easterlies in the METO output, not even a consideration. So for now, the favourite must be the energy going over the top.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

So when the models show a colder outcome that is not mentioned in the Met Office outlook the models will change to match the forecast? However when the models show a milder forecast yet the Met Office outlook suggests something colder the models will change to match the forecast?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 Well sometimes the NWP that we see does lead the METO output, but when this is potentially 8 days away and there is nothing to even suggest it in the text, then we have to see it as unlikely.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

My,my, a cracking ECM run so far, UKMO looks solid too  GFS however much more unconvincing, still some proper cold runs appearing in the ens tho.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Well sometimes the NWP that we see does lead the METO output, but when this is potentially 8 days away and there is nothing to even suggest it in the text, then we have to see it as unlikely.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

From the Met Ofice forecast for 8th to 17th December:

"During the rest of this period some longer drier, settled but cold spells are likely, with lighter winds (especially early next week). Any wet and windy weather is more likely to be confined to the north and west. This will bring overnight frosts and perhaps fog, especially for the south and east"

So,  it's not accurate to say there's no mention of colder weather.  Most certainly that's not a forecast for raging zonality.

But do carry on with your customary idiosyncratic interpretations.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

'If' it does come off we will probably be looking at a December 1997 event comprising a quick ridge and dose of WAA, a 2 day easterly followed by a 2 hour snow event on the third day from a front pushing up from the SW. Atlantic dominance soon after.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

From the Met Ofice forecast for 8th to 17th December:

"During the rest of this period some longer drier, settled but cold spells are likely, with lighter winds (especially early next week). Any wet and windy weather is more likely to be confined to the north and west. This will bring overnight frosts and perhaps fog, especially for the south and east"

So,  it's not accurate to say there's no mention of colder weather.  Most certainly that's not a forecast for raging zonality.

But do carry on with your customary idiosyncratic interpretations.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

That’s one interpretation.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Oh God don't tell me that there's going to be rioting on the streets if zonality returns to the NWP. 

Anyway, as I mentioned a week ago, there's much to be interested in with the output. As I said then, may well come to nought if the ridging comes under pressure and collapses eastward, but ECM OP is the horse to follow in terms of verification at least.

Originally Posted by: Arcus