Looks like the inflection point was reached overnight, although the chance of a milder outcome isn't fully discounted.

Inflection...great word ! 

ECM easterly inbound at 192 hours.

A distinct lack of cold uppers to make things exciting with 850's of -6 to -7c from the initial easterly 

Any snowfall from this will be a caused by a front pushing up from the SW ahead of a continental flow...

A good old fashioned SW England blizzard here. 216

GFSP 00z less keen.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=00&charthour=216&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

ECM a tad colder by 216.

Its very easy to get lured into the trap of dreaming about snowy Decembers. Historically (in recent terms) they are rare. Warmer seas, warmer lands, lag times and all that.

What is encouraging (for the longer term) is the ability to get a High Pressure to reside over Scandinavia in December following a November appearance.

Yes the lack of  cold uppers is a shame although ECM looks just about cold enough to me. Goes to show just how exceptional Nov/Dec 2010 was a real once in a 100 year event.

The best hope for a properly snowy winter from where we are now is that the pattern of a blocking HP over Scandi will persist, though looking at the charts, that HP still looks a bit fragile to me.

For now, even if we get cold easterlies, they won't be spectacularly cold as the whole of Europe, way across to the east, has above average temps for some time to come http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

I agree mate we were spoilt that year .

Good runs this morning IMO 

Another day another ECM Op cold outlier really need the ensembles to go colder. Judging by the Mean many show a lovely Scandi high but poor 850s 

get a repeating pattern and the cold will come

It does seem to be repeating which is a very good sign.

The GFS mean shows a trend to something milder as we move closer to Christmas after a potential cold blip next week

The ECM mean still isn't backing the op on the 850's yet with this potential really cold air

You say that but, as I've explained previously, that isn't the case - at least not for this region/area.

In the 22 Decembers from 1996 we've had:

Pre-xmas snowfall staying on ground until after Xmas Day: 2009, 2010

Snow falling & sticking on Xmas Day: 1996, 2004

Snow falling & sticking between Xmas Day and New Year's Eve: 2000, 2001, 2014

Snow falling and providing a brief (<1day) cover: 2011

A hit rate of 8 Decembers out of 22 (36%) isn't bad IMO

They key is the face we have high pressure around and not to the south of the UK - if it sets up over us it will be cold to the north cold with chance of very cold. At this time of year it is perfect in my eyes. With potential further down the line this is a bonus

Currently it looks fairly innocuous at ground level, with average temps, maybe slightly colder here or there. ie no beast.

However should cold become established, i think it may be rather hard to budge, and fronts may begin to dive underneath it. Reason im saying this with no actual basis is, GFS and indeed any charts for that matter struggle with this, as it really depends what happens on the few days leading up to it being hit by an atlantic front.

We just need the cold air to seep over to scandinavia and North germany. Clear cold nights. We are approaching the shortest day of the year, so the potential for this increases, with lack of available heat from the sun.

Just pinched this from t'other side. Looks all right.

Nice to be looking at potential rather than a raging strong PV in December, let’s hope it comes to fruition