This is extremely interesting.  Given where we are with the  current output.... placing a lot of hope into the models.  If the outcome comes true, it will drastically increase peoples trust in LRFs.

Literally almost all are going for a colder outlook with pretty much all saying lots of HP over the pole.

If this fails, it would probably be the biggest fail we have ever seen in the LRFs

I've been saying this for a few years now... it usually gets shouted down... but anecdotal evidence obtained from my window, and talking to people who live/play in the open does seem to back it up - I stand by it.

I was going to say the same, many if not all go for a cold and blocked winter esp mid to later stages - Surely now, surely all all those 13 or so LRF models won't fail!?

That's true ! Been a while since we had a cold first half or front loaded winter - even 2012/13 the cold air never arrived until mid January. The last colder start/front loaded winter we had that I can remember was 2010/11 and 09/2010 but since then we have had some unusually mild and warm Autumns and Christmas's! I really don't want snow in March again- I want it in winter when we should have it so it can last longer too. (Ideally around Xmas) But Xmas's have been so mild over recent years. We can only hope that it turns colder and more 'seasonal' after mid December.

Nothing remotely spectacular but a couple of interesting runs on the 6z GEFS if cold is what you are after!

[quote=nickward_uk;1054540]

I've been saying this for a few years now... it usually gets shouted down... but anecdotal evidence obtained from my window, and talking to people who live/play in the open does seem to back it up - I stand by it.

[I'd agree and Phenology refers to it as season creep, if I recall correctly the highlights indicated shorter and milder winters.] 

Pretty decent support there for high pressure to build later on. Hard really to say where the high will be positioned though. 

The UK cannot be immune from the effects of climate change.  The CET record shows we are warming: an extra 1c every day is, crudely, an extra 365c of warmth distributed somehwat randomly across the year.  Almost every airmass will be, on average, less cold or warmer. Mild spells in autumn and winter will be milder; cold spells less cold. That's all before we think about changing weather patterns, from whatever cause.

All this should make autumn last longer (extra residual heat in the adjacent oceans) and spring arrive sooner (which is evident from nature and growing seasons).

GFS looks to be settling it down next week overnight frost and fog. Could get lucky if it gets to join with Arctic high!

its trying!

A green Christmas confirmed 🤢🤢🤢

cant say the latest run has not made me raise an an eyebrow.  Its one run.  BUT seems to be an amplification of recent runs of HP trying to link to the arctic.

Will be interesting to see if we are starting to see the signs of change entering the FI.

Still stand by my previous post.... frost n Fog on the horizon.... which will be nice (not if you are flying)

Just as the Met Office outlook goes mild the GFS Operation model turns cold and blocked in FI after 1st week of December into 2nd week of December with the HP trying to get up towards Iceland and Greenland.! Expect more changes then I guess! - If we could have run on a few more days with the 12z op run there would be some very cold weather by mid December! - Especially seeing the HP retrogress too! 

model out put thread!! As far as I can see the GFS looks good before Christmas (on the one op run) but shows what can happen without an SSW

Looks like we may have a SW in mid term and maybe another SW - could this still increase blocking? Or do we need a SSW for more of a  Chance to get blocking?

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Still a rather abnormal atmospheric pattern...definitely not a Atlantic train setup for the foreseeable...long way to go...but I still think signs have been there..persistent above average heights towards Greenland...PV disruption....as post above....some good model watching over the next week

Nice to see the ongoing theme of Arctic High on ECM

Common to have blocking but it’s a beast and Atlantic not been too forceful apart from the coming week. Wouldn’t take too much adjustment to start influencing UK

This is all based on the fact on your assumptions that the UK will see similar pressure patterns to what its used to- however more importantly over & above what climate change is bringing in terms of warmth in the air masses is what type of weather pattern it may be bring overall, which in the case of significantly reduced ice cover means decreased westerlies & higher incidence of blocking - meaning more extremes of cold & warmth...

Variations on a theme with the 18z GFS Op!

Not to be sniffed at!!

The unsettled Atlantic period could be over before it really gets going.

A drying trend from around the 4th with signals for high pressure to nose up from south (as alluded by Neil). A cooling trend too as high pressure positions itself close the UK with inversions keeping the surface colder with relative warmth at height. 

The ECM weeklies don't indicate anything overly cold out to December 23rd maybe week 3 could be a bit cooler with a signal for slightly below average in ROI and NI otherwise above average looks most likely 

Frosty and Foggy start to December it will be then.

On a plus side, only a few weeks to go until the days start getting longer.. 🙂