Yep, can’t wait for Spring already. Usually really excited this time of year but a lot of hopes have been dashed with December originally looking quite promising for coldies. 

Long term signals apparently point to rain and strong winds after a transient uk high. 

Love summer, but I never want the dark nights to end - and they always seem to do so quicker and quicker. I love those late December days where it never gets properly light. Makes you want to cosy-up in a small room with a big fire.

I see the MO is changing again to offer a glimmer of hope.

Love the long dark nights myself, yet they always fly by so quickly. The longer daylight hours always seem to last longer in the year to the point of seeming never ending. 

On this we agree Martin

it just seems better somehow if it's nice and cold rather than mild, wet and dark.

As you say though, a glimmer of hope for mid December now

I like the cosiness of this time of year too, but I can do without waking up in darkness and coming home in darkness, especially on days like today where it's raining which makes it even darker. It's more tolerable in December due to Christmas, but once January arrives, unless we actually get a good spell of snowy weather or high pressure with frost and sparking winter sunshine, I'm more than eager for spring.

Weekend looks to be a washout for England and Wales...

Mudfest beckons.

Saturday needs watching. Potential snow event on the northern edge of that.

Russ will be in a warm sector

Depends on the track of the Lows, I always think. If we can get good northerly blocking and lows tracking sufficiently south, then we can reap some good snow.

the GFS Para once again produces a massive Scandi high and a stonking easterly. It's consistent,  consistently wrong?

I've switched the TWO GFSP download back. Charts can be viewed here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx

The 12z run finishes with this.

Before people lament the scandi being shown in FI probably never materializing I'd point out that if this was +96h away you'd probably be very disappointed. The airmass is cold but a slack flabby high with cold uppers isn't going to bring much (if any) convection and the boundary layer will have plenty of time to warm up over the north sea.

Taken literally that's steely grey skies  and 5C for most (occasionally 0C when there is any fog about).

it seems this Atlantic spell could go on til 2019

Of all the GFS purtibations, there are many blocked ones, at least a third of all outputs, so the chance of a new block developing is probably still 33% or more! and that is better than many winter models have shown for last 3 decades - 2009/10 excepting. I think I can small an easterly - I feel it in my waters!! However, they are like a butterfly, a rare and gentle thing at a time of year when the jet resembles a runaway fire truck.   I am sadly old enough to remember the brilliant winter of 1970-71, when we had a deep frozen high pressure and plenty of snow right through Christmas - magical: stomping through frozen drifts, and snow un-salted, hard packed on the lanes where I lived, some like pre-prepared sledge runs - and we indulged. 

It's time we had another year like that...we deserve it for the years of model watching in hope...

come you Scandinavia-high!!

ECM op 12z is running and the ENS mean has completed. 

Brian - I am sure it was yourself or Doc WHO mentioned last year about a UK pizza slice when describing the weather pattern whenever the UK is in a warm sector or on the warmer side of the block?

does this chart showing warm uppers describe what you refer to as the triangular pizza slice? -The UK is triangular anyway and funny how it fits nicely into the wrath of warmer uppers and milder air. 

This scenario keeps popping up ...

Again in FI - The triangular pizza slice heads towards the UK:

It’s the blue finger in the top right you want to keep an eye on. Always much less likely, but interesting to see a big Siberian high and a westward push of cold being programmed here and there amongst the models ...