From N. Hemisphere /N. Pole view down:

Just love how the low undercuts the block and begins to drag in some bitterly cold air at the end of the 18z run:

Yes just looking and it's only one run but we are so close to dragging in Siberian air!! Love how the Siberian HP retrogresses westwards into Northern Scandinavia or the fact that the Siberian High is so big and strong that it helps build the block over Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard as well as Iceland and even into Greenland. 

The warning signs keep popping up in the models that we may be about to see a rather (prolonged) wintry spell in the upcoming weeks.

The huge Siberian HP in the nearer term is the harbinger of what is, in my opinion, about to unfold as we progress deeper into winter.

The area of heights shown on the 18z between Scandi and Greenland is likely to be a repeating theme this winter, it's a pattern which is seen in some of the most notoriously cold winters. It's a stable pattern which can bring prolonged cold to our shores. It also fits in very well with the available seasonal guidance at present.

Buckle up everyone, could be a long winter ahead :)

Agree to some extent.  Whilst not a certainty by any stretch, the FI signal is there and it could happen, the second half of December could end up being really frigid. Interesting times.

GFSP again more interesting for coldies than GFS op. Wouldn't read anything into that myself, it's purely the luck of the draw.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx

GEFS paint quite an unsettled picture with a slightly weaker signal for high pressure over the UK than some of the recent updates.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=mslp&lglocation=london

Yes I copyrighted the pizza slice pattern.  Your chart shows that sort of thing.  

From a cold POV I don't see anything to excite at the moment, very early days of course . My own opinion is I'd rather have January cold than late Nov/Dec cold.

I always see you as a glass half empty kind of person 😉 so this post is surprising! 

Personally I don’t see much to be positive about looking at the NWP, at the present time. Lots of opportunity for change, of course.

Yes the seasonal models look favourable for a cold winter, but we often see this being completely wrong, year after year after year. 

Very poor outlook this morning , we can write off the next 2 weeks and the Pros want to write off the following 2 after that. Late December at the earliest for anything of interest for Coldies would be my bet this morning.  

Well looking at the BBC 7 day forecast earlier Ark building is the form horse. Rain, rain and more rain sums it up - we're certainly paying the price for that dry summer now..

A wet winter would be just what the doctor ordered reservoirs desperately need topping up. A high pressure dominated winter would mean big problems by next spring.

From what I can see, the ECM 00z op looks a little more interesting for coldies too compared to its GFS counterpart. Looks to have to jet stream travelling on a trajectory that looks slightly further south than shown by GFS.

i would have a big bet that will not be the case. There is still lots of change afoot in the charts and winter is not even here yet!!

This is quickly heading down hill towards a 2014/2016 start to winter

Above average temps showing quite widely from Germany westwards

Scandi High?

GEM UK & Northern hemisphere precipitation type charts are now available on TWO. On UK white shading indicates snow, https://t.co/3dx7QluEW5 On NH pink indicates snow. The NH plots are quite spectacular & I don't think you'll struggle to find the UK. https://t.co/nC1vxxFxwM pic.twitter.com/3pqturpOPo

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 28, 2018

Note: There was an issue with precipitation type charts < 51 hours on the GEM 12z run today. Should be fully working from tomorrow's 00z update at the latest. 

Some interest on the ENS set with the -10 850s (London) appearing again later on.

Yup, the control runs shows how quickly it could in theory flip to a colder pattern. At least there's the odd cold outlier to keep things from being completely dull!