Sorry to be a broken record ..………...look at Gavs videos , if that doesn't get people excited about Winter then I don't know what will 

I get your point Richard - sorry, I mean Michael 😉😎

January. It's an incremental upgrade and nothing to be excited about. The verification stats for it are almost identical to the existing operational GFS. All of the models undergo upgrades on a regular basis but only the GFS gets discussed because the parallel data sets are in the public domain.

yes saw that last night. Great presentation from Gav again, thanks to him for that. I’m living in the here and now- the Atlantic arrives and speaking from past experience- it can be a hard bugger to evict 

It can be difficult to stop yes, but that's not always the case. Last winter was a case in point.

For instance, I seem to recall the weather being fairly mild and unsettled over the Xmas weekend last year and there were a few other occasion when the atlantic took control, but to my recollection none of them lasted for long. There were no periods of prolonged zonality such as those that characterised the 2013/14 and 2015/16 winters, as two recent examples.

Agreed. I'd rather the wait involved some sunshine and clearer intervals to constant grey skies and at this time of year the darkest days.

But your not as you think it could be an extended period of Atlantic dominated weather 

we won’t know if it’s an extended period or not until after the event 😂

I fear the worst, I’ve lived on this island for 48 years and know just what a ****** the Atlantic can be 

I can’t see too much other than the usual variance around the mobile theme at the moment.

 and, yes you’re right, respectively.

I really hope this doesn't turn out to be how the winter is. Dull, damp,mild and slightly breezy the worst of all weathers in my book.

Agree. Now you know why Europe is like a frying pan? It has Greece at the bottom.😁

Barmy or balmy? Probably both

GFS and Control really ramping up those 850s.

Postage stamps contain a few colder options but they are poor from a cold weather perspective. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=384&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

It's wrist slitting times for the coldies on here. I fear the price we will pay for a decent Summer is going to be a wet, windy and mild Winter. The law of averages and all that.

Only a few hours ago this forecast on weather is so cool.com was for the zonal winds to trend very negative or in fact crash end of December into January (maybe picked up on a SSW) - But now look at the forecast:

Plus whilst it does show a weakening of the zonal winds at 10hpa into mid December - the models show mild southerlies or south westerlies most of the time. - hardly a cold signal anyway!!

Hmm, my own thoughts on this FWIW is simply that the seasons in the Uk need shifting, summer didn't really finish until October, i think Autumn (or Autumnal weather, mildish, windy and wet) will last into the new year and then Winter will arrive Feb and March. I guess most would call that a back loaded winter, but I just think that the seasons are simply out of sync with the traditional norms.

Just my own thoughts

This is worth a watch -

Gav's Third and Final seasonal model round-up for winter 2018/19: - If you haven't seen this, then please do watch this video as it's very interesting indeed - and so many models are in agreement with each other: - That's all I'll say.

https://youtu.be/SHbPxCs5Shg

On reflection, in other words, I am saying that the very far reaches of one run of FI suggests that there is a chance of some cold weather a week or so after the end of that run.

Is that clutching at straws...?

Looks to settle down after that with HP trying to build in, as with this time of the year, long nights and what will be saturated ground we can expect foggy nights and cold days where the fog doesnt clear

I couldn't be writing a more stereo typical end of Autumn summary

And yet we're on the cusp of winter, with just 4 weeks until Xmas, and if we are to get a Christmas Card build-up and festive period, we'd need to be seeing good signals in the MO by now - and that aint happening.

Another Xmas chalked off the diminishing number I've got left. Soon 2009 & 2010 will be a dimming memory.

Xmas's and snow are as rare as hens teeth and Im happy ive seen 1 or 2 in my lifetime.  Most of our snow events happen later in the winter.

I really wouldnt get down about it, the weather will do what it wants.