BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at times, but some calm, frosty spells

Saturday 24 November—Sunday 2 December

Becoming mild and unsettled next week

This weekend will see a chilly easterly flow continue for most of the country, bringing a lot of cloud and some patchy rain or occasional showers from the North Sea. More frequent rain may linger across Scotland and northern England, with a little snow likely over the higher mountains too. The most widespread spells of rain and embedded showers will affect southern England and perhaps south Wales, with the odd rumble of thunder possible at times. Next week will start off on a rather chilly, cloudy note, with occasional showers or patchy rain affecting eastern England and Northern Ireland. After a largely clear night, Tuesday morning will be cold with a frost in the countryside, but a strengthening southerly breeze will develop ahead of an advancing warm front from the south-west on Wednesday, which will be a windy, wet day for most with hill snow in the Scottish mountains for a time. The second half of next week will then transition to a mild and unsettled theme, with low pressure generally to the north-west of the UK, and bringing bands of rain and a rather cloudy airmass from the south or south-west. There is a risk of gales at times too, particularly in the north and north-west, although confidence is currently low regarding the timings of any strong winds.

Monday 3 December—Sunday 9 December

High pressure returning

The first week of December will start off on a mild note, with a mild south-westerly airflow and low pressure generally moving north-east to the north of Scotland. The greatest risk of widespread wet and windy conditions will be early in the week, which is when the low pressure will be closest to the UK. It will be mild for all areas, although the rather cloudy and breezy conditions will take the edge off temperatures somewhat. By the second half of the week, there are increasing indications for a build in pressure from the south-west, which would result in drier conditions for all areas, as Atlantic fronts become deflected well to the north. Temperatures may fall closer to average for most of the UK, with chillier north-westerly or even north-easterly airflows becoming more likely. Winds would most likely ease compared to early in the week too, particularly in the south, with the breeziest and wettest weather generally becoming restricted to north and north-western areas. The nights will start to become colder, with a notable increase in overnight frosts, as well as mist and fog. Some models indicate that a stronger high-pressure area could develop to the east of the UK by the end of the week, resulting in chilly easterly airflows reaching the UK once again. However, confidence is low regarding this scenario.

Monday 10 December—Sunday 23 December

Turning milder but more unsettled

Early in the second week of December, there are strong indications for high pressure to intensify close to or over the UK, and so a drier and calmer period of weather is anticipated. Cold and frosty nights should continue, with mist and fog perhaps slow to clear during the day. Occasional fronts could bring some rainfall to Scotland from the south or south-west - any snow will be restricted to only the higher mountains as a result. Later in the week, it looks more likely for low pressure to return close to the UK from the west, with an Atlantic airmass moving in. So, by the end of the week, all areas will become wetter and breezier, with more cloud and a lack of overnight frosts. By the middle of December, there is increasing evidence that Atlantic low-pressure systems will continue to move in from the west, bringing frequent wet and some windy weather to northern Britain, particularly Scotland. It should become drier the further south you go - occasional bands of patchy rain could edge into central Britain, although high pressure moving up from the south-west could bring some quite dry weather to southern areas. It should be milder than normal for all areas.

Next Update

We will see if the unsettled weather is expected to continue later into December.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social

UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Nov 2018 to Saturday 8 Dec 2018:

Early rain clearing away to the east, then Thursday will see a mixture of sunshine and blustery showers for many. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the southwest, especially later in the day. Winds generally fresh to strong with risk of gales or severe gales in the north and west. Showers or longer spells of rain clearing east on Friday, but generally dry and bright elsewhere. The unsettled weather will probably continue into the weekend, with showers or longer spells of rain, with bright or sunny spells in between. It will stay generally windy with temperatures a touch above normal for some. Further unsettled and milder weather is possible through the first week of December, however it looks like things should start to turn drier and colder.

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2018 to Sunday 23 Dec 2018:

Any more unsettled weather at the start of this period is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is then expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring increased likelihood of fog, especially later in the month. Temperatures will probably be around average at first, with a few milder days but also some overnight frosts under clearer skies. Things may then start to turn generally colder later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Next weekend and into the following week

Staying unsettled
Wet and windy at times
Mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46330894

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm 

Valid from 26/11 to 23/12 2018

Valid from 26/11 to 23/12 2018

Issued: Saturday 24th November 2018

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Frost and fog, more unsettled later in the month

Higher pressure is expected build during the month increasing the risk of fog and frost as well as dry weather. The Christmas period may become more unsettled with rain and strong winds. Perhaps becoming colder too.

*26/11/18 - 3/12/18*

Deteriorating conditions. Wind and rain to the west, spreading east. Becoming milder

*4/12/18 - 10/12/18*

Unsettled start with rain. Improving through the week.

*11/12/18 - 17/12/18*

Higher pressure brings fog and frost risk again. Dry for many.

*18/12/18 - 24/12/18*

Pressure stays high with fog and frost risk overnight. Dry for many. Need t watch for change in northern Scotland later.

*25/11/18 - 1/12/18*

May become unsettled and colder from the north. Rik of gales and some wintry conditions.

**ends**

Simon Keeling

Seasonal outlook - November 23, 2018
Drier January
Colder February?
Issued: Saturday 24th November 2018
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

*January*
Higher pressure to the south.
Drier weather for most, may be milder than average.
Some colder days as winds turns to southeast, fog and frost risk.
More mixed northwest Scotland.
Possibly colder later in the month.

*February*
A colder month seems likely.
Threat of wintry weather, sleet and snow.
May be that the cold weather lasts throughout the month.
Sharp overnight frosts.

Simon Keeling

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

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So the long and short is for winter to start of mild and become more and more blocked & cold.

However, his November forecast was for temps to be below average and easterlies so i'll rate his November forecast 50% - Yes we had/have had easterly winds but it's not been exceptionally cold esp by night - I was away but from what I know - mid November was really mild in many parts of the UK - IMO i think he just took a look at many other longer range model output, saw GAVSWEATHERVIDS 3rd and final seasonal model round up and took a wild guess to produce his forecast! ha! - Where does he get sources and data from to help produce his winter forecast for Dec, Jan and Feb?

If he keeps guessing so it seems he will eventually get it right. 

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2018 to Sunday 9 Dec 2018:

Friday will remain unsettled with a mixture of bright or sunny spells and showers. Showers could be heavy and perhaps thundery and most frequent in the north and west. The southeast will most likely see the best of any drier and brighter skies. It will stay windy, with gales in the north and west. The unsettled weather will probably continue into the weekend, with showers or longer spells of rain, with bright or sunny spells in between. It will stay generally windy with temperatures a touch above normal for some. Further unsettled and milder weather is possible through the first week of December, however it looks like things should start to turn drier and colder towards the following weekend.

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

Should the unsettled weather prior to this period continue, it is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is then expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring an increased likelihood of fog, especially later in the month. Temperatures may start off around average at first, but are likely to trend to colder than average. This in turn will bring an increased risk of some overnight frosts under any clearer skies.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Decent enough update 

No alteration of thoughts from the MetO then, despite what the BBC is saying. I only wonder if the Beeb's thoughts would still the the same were they still with the MetO.

Interestingly, does anyone know what the track record of the BBC's new forecast provider, Meteogroup, is like when it comes to medium-long range forecasting? Are they any more or even as reliable as those of the MetO?

2nd update issued for the 16 to 30 dayer

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

Should the unsettled weather prior to this period continue, it is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is generally expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring an increased likelihood of fog. Temperatures may start off around average at first, but are likely to trend to colder than average. This in turn will bring an increased risk of some overnight frosts under any clearer skies. However, as we head towards the end of this period, it is likely to become more unsettled once again with temperatures returning to around or a little above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

So that paragraph can be boiled down to "Rex block sandwiched by Mr Prevailing Southwesterly". Possibly. Makes one wonder who the sadistic sod was who decided to issue a second update today. 

This week

Some heavy rain
Potentially disruptive winds
Milder

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46337403 

Are they now slowly pulling away from a colder outlook ??? 

Or just suggesting the colder settled conditions may only be transient (like the unsetttled conditions that preceded them).

The models will come up with some cracking runs now!!

The METO have now changed their wording for later on in December to suggest the sinking of this High.