LOL. 

Ian Brown’s wet dream. :D 

Weren't some people making a comparison with a cold winter in 1889 or thereabouts? Perhaps it was a typo and the first 8 was a 9. 

[quote=Brian Gaze;1053299]

Weren't some people making a comparison with a cold winter in 1889 or thereabouts? Perhaps it was a type and the first 8 was a 9. 

Remember January 89 I was in Aviemore and it was 15c at night!!!!

A cool week ahead but then signs of less cool/milder and (very?) unsettled beyond that. Still good agreement out to about day 6 or so.

I was going by my Mk1 Golf GTI temp gauge at around 22:30 on or around 19-21 January as I descended down the A9 to Aviemore Northbound.... I'd agree the accuracy of the gauge might of been slightly out!!🤔 I do know there was a foehn affect that night with a Southerly wind. 

I think the comments from some people above about winter forecasts possibly having to be re-written at this stage are unwarranted, IMO.

As I mentioned last night, the MetO updates over the past few days have been mentioning the possibility of a milder and more unsettled spell arriving at the end of November and start of December, and from what I can see that is what is now being indicated by the models. How long this milder and more unsettled period lasts for, assuming in verifies as is indicated, we don't know at this stage. That said, the possiblity of it turning milder and more unsettled for a while has been there from what the MetO has said.

Jumping the gun is the phrase that is coming into my head at the moment.

Good post, Steve.

As I mentioned last night, the same BBC monthly outlook a couple of weeks ago wasn't even buying into the MetO's prediction of a colder spell in the second half of November, which is what we are now in the middle of. At the same time the MetO was mentioning in consistently in their updates.

Why some seem to be taking the BBC outlooks as gospel, only they know.

Why ?

Do they follow the Beeb's data then?

I would understand that from a newbie but you should know better, what a bizarre comment 

Looking at the ECM, the Atlantic doesn't get across to the SE as the HP in Europe looks like rebuilding . 

Yes one model one run but I don't see a zonal train bombing right across the UK 

ECM 240

Correct, to re-write a Winter forecast on the back of a model run is mad , look at the state of the PV its shredded .

We haven't even hit December yet which to be honest was why I wasn't that concerned about anything from the East yet...….too early for me, lets get into December first and out of Autumn

A rebuilding of the HP in Europe is the last thing we want to see. Need to see lows steaming right through the UK - preferably to our south - and a rebuilding of heights to our north west. Is this being too greedy?

I wouldn't say its the last thing we want , the last thing we want is a kin to the Beeb update with mild SWlies , get the block there and let it re-position itself , which its done on many occasions in the past.

Your being oink oink :)

Feel warm in the mild SWLies 

Not bad for early December

As the low lifts out so residual energy sliding underneath allows for more of a 'tug' of that deep cold to the East

ICON 06z -

Some GEFS ENs ( PTB 7 & 12 )

If worth noting these trends as the whole synoptic pattern doesnt need to change - just some fine tuning here & here- both GFS ENS above get decent snow across the UK as well...

S

I agree the charts arent that far away from interesting conclusions, however the GEFS suites have flattened, grouped tighter and reflect the general consensus from most of the big MET groups that we are probably looking at an unsettled and average to mild outlook for the next week or two.  

Saying that we know things can change and can change quickly, but the balance is way more in favour of the milder outcome at the moment.

Should feel quite pleasant 

In the rain?

Think we still need to wait a while longer but the blues and purples mostly look a long way off which suggests there is a big margin for error. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=384&chartname=ps_850temp&chartregion=na&p=1&charttag=PS%20850hPa%20temp 

Nope 

You've missed my sarcasm