It's only 3.6C here at 1.30pm. I would welcome a short spell of westerlies to drive away the cloud. If you look at a vis sat pic of Europe the East Coast of England and Scotland and all of Nothern, Eastern and Central Europe are coated in a thick blanket of cloud.

Looking at it, anything is possible from the 1st December.

What I'd missed was that you'd posted it. For some reason I thought it was a mildy

I wouldn’t discount the possibility that the blocking to the E does not collapse in the manner ‘most’ output is suggesting. It’s an observation that the rapid surrender occurs in low-res, with the high-res section trending to both disrupt the Atlantic energy and keep the gradual drift west of the deep cold from C Europe which props up the high.
As Haddon says in Contact, we may not be totally out of the party with respect early cold, but we’re certainly being handed our hat.
More runs needed [sic] 😎

If you look at the ECM mean frames between 216 and 240, there is a huge inconsistency between both in that one doesn't follow on in a logical manner from the other. This is most notable regarding the position of the low heights (sounds almost paradoxical) to the NW. I think that may indicate a higher than normal amount uncertainty about the general pattern at that stage. 

God forbid 

"model output (mostly gfs) discussion"

....and to add to that comment...12z has the low much more flabby, cold hanging on for now .

Quite different to the 6z - I wonder if Winter forecasts will be re-written 

Fans of a nice long fetch SWly in the south will like the MetO 12z run.

"We're gonna need a bigger rubber"

UKMO going the mild route again big changes by mid next week IF it's right

I suspect that its being updated every 6 hours, rather than every 12 hours as with the other models, has a lot to do with that.

Ties in with their mid-term  forecast with a tentative return to mild preferred with  uncertainty thereafter (as per). Will be glad to blow this murk and drizzle away 

GFS Control , you can see why there is the uncertainty , cold or very cold is so close 

Surprised you didn't pick out P4 Gooner 

If things do change in the charts - it will be because the cold starts to become established to our north east and makes the block more stubborn.

Charts always underplay this, and really is our only hope of change at this point.

Yes - we just need that ridge to the SW of Ireland to retrogress 3000 to 500 miles North westwards toward Greenland and BINGO- we are in there! - That cold pool over Svalbard/ N. Scandinavia and Russia will come our way! 

That's because the chart at 240 isn't actually derived from the chart at 216. The chart at 216 is the mean of the 50-odd charts from the ensemble. Each one of those 50 individual charts is then run forward 24 hours and a new mean is calculated, giving us the 240 mean chart.

The 216 chart is the one chart which is NOT used to calculate the 240 chart.

Just a reminder to think very hard about how a mean value was derived before using it in any aspect of weather or climate. Or anything at all, come to that.

Very progressive ECM tonight, with a deepening PV later in the run.

However the guys with more information to work than us are still sticking to the any mild weather will be short lived forecast ian.

You mean the ECM run that ends with a large high pressure over the North Pole and low upper heights split across either side?