http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

☔️

More signs of Mr Prevailing Southwesterly in the output than we've seen for much of the year. Black Friday takes on a new meaning for coldies!  However, I'll be looking to see whether the current trends becomes locked in or not during the next week.

You wrote a couple of months ago that there were conflicting signals for the forthcoming winter. Well, it looks as though the west based QBO is going to triumph over the other signals and we are going to be doomed to a typical mild, wet and miserable winter

In short, the PV is forecast to finally get established in its usual nasty place as the strat and trop move into alignment.

[quote=Brian Gaze;1053544]

More signs of Mr Prevailing Southwesterly in the output than we've seen for much of the year. Black Friday takes on a new meaning for coldies!  However, I'll be looking to see whether the current trends becomes locked in or not during the next week.

Let's just hope a blocking pattern doesn't set up over Southern Europe and become established!! Good for the summer cruel for the winter....

We know this kind of muck sticks- will the the met office prediction of December blocking end up rather eggy-on-facey?

As I mentioned the other night, the MetO updates for this month have not been wide of the mark. They went for a mild and unsettled first half of November with a colder period in the second half, and that is pretty much what has happened.

It looks odds-on now that there will be a milder and more unsettled period starting later next week and taking us into early December according to the models. However, assuming that happens it doesn't always means that it is going to last for weeks and weeks. We had the occasional mild and unsettled spell where I live during last winter yet none of them, according to my recollection at least, lasted that long unlike other recent winters. I wouldn't be too quick to discard the MetO's thoughts just yet.

Milder weather looks the form horse now

This thread is schizophrenic

Temperatures trending a bit above average for a fair few areas with slightly below average temps becoming restricted to the far north and north west

Normal service is resumed, long fetch south westerlies, cool to our far north east.

Dry one day wet and windy the following two.

Standard November setup.

Not what many want to see to start winter but yes now highly likely we’re looking at a mild and unsettled period from midweek.

For how long? Well I’m sure the experts in MJO, QBO, PFI and LMAO will be able to offer us some info in due course.

😉

Not model, but folklore, for those that want a cold winter, a mild period now may be good sign

Ice in November to walk a duck, the winter will be all rain and muck.

Although it has to be said that the GFS 6z does totally calm the atlantic down by the end of FI

I can live with two or three weeks of Atlantic fury if we could have a wintry second half of December. Whilst the Nov/Dec 2010 spell was wondrous, it was a massive anomaly to start so early (and, once it broke just a few days after Chrimble, the rest of the winter was ordinary)

Latest ECM 45 dayer showing potential for both the AO and NAO going into negative territory again towards the end of Dec/early Jan. Second run in a row that has shown this trend. As always though, much 'spread'. 

Part of me agrees with you...

There were ducks walking on the ice on Fleet Pond yesterday morning. WIO! 

GFS has blocking taking hold over the UK from about 252 hours, so a cool and frosty early December is not beyond the realms of possibility.

ECM 00z ensemble for London shows a clear cooling trend, albeit with the usual scatter.  Looking at the chart you might describe the next two weeks as potentially cool to cold with a 5-day milder blip.

Some warming over eastern Siberia in FI @10hpa - not an SSW but certainly one to watch AS it looks likely that it may push it's way into the N. Pole region:

Thereafter tentative signs of a resurgence of HLB this side of the Pole. We await the next instalment. 😁

Badumptsch!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

Good to see a cold East

Weve had many years where the east has been on the mild side.  Especially before xmas.