If ‘signals’ prove correct and heights can suddenly appear towards Scandy next week then fair enough, but as it stands this morning the more mobile Atlantic option going towards December has the shortest odds.

Poor output this morning , major models suggesting chances of a significant cold spell in the next 10 to 14 days is very low now.

The other point of note is the output this morning goes against what various people (not on the forums or the usual suspects) were briefing even yesterday. 

However the northern hemisphere is not as yet settled and either outcome could still happen.

IMHO I believe mid December onwards might give us some interesting weather with snow in the south but probably not for me.....

In recent years it’s often felt like they’ve been playing catch-up when there’s a change in the trend, through not wanting to abruptly change their long range forecasts. I can appreciate why they don’t want to chop and change with every model run, but it does tend to leave them swimming against the tide sometimes. 

Hope so, but doesn't look that way to me, with the pressure still too relatively high in the south.

The London ensembles certainly paint a very wet picture for the next two weeks, barring the next three days. Maybe some sign of a pressure rise towards the end of the period, but for much of it the mean pressure is 1000-1010mb. 

The Atlantic looks as if it's waking up, with e.g. a dartboard low over Ireland on the 29th (GFS, that is - ECM keeps it in the Atlantic) but still not what I'd call active zonal weather.

Ensembles showing plenty of rain for the south but exactly when is open to question - both temp and rain ensembles appear to have been worked over with an egg-beater for the week starting 27th.

Somewhat too delphic for me..! If not the usual suspects on bulletin boards, who are you referring to and what were they briefing..?

Journalists contact me on a regular basis and will say "I've just spoken to X and they are saying..., can you provide some quotes to support that angle and expand on it a little".

No, that's not what I meant. 

However looking at the GFS ensemble and the extended ECM - the main message that seems to appear is a gradual transition away from blocked to a more progressive Atlantic type for the closing days of November and early December. This would imply wetter and milder conditions more likely to dominate. Towards mid-December the very latter stages of ECM would imply a return to blocked or more slowly progressive types. However If I take the current forecast position of the mid-December height recovery literally (always a very dangerous thing to do at that range) then it would imply dry, chilly and a potentially foggy set-up - without anything particularly notable in terms of extremity.

So insomuch as I can see - nothing to get overly excited about one way or the other - just at the moment.

UKMO extended is more SE'ly this morning with rain moving into the far west

ECM at the same time is more SW'ly

Which EC charts go to mid-December? (Unless you mean the EC46 and it’s clusters)

The ECM op is most certainly on the mild side this morning from around the 28th when looking at the mean

Similar to last night in that up to the 27th has good agreement beyond this is still up for grabs

Just glancing out at the extended large scale mean flow - which actually looks well blocked towards mid-December - though not in a favourable place for proper cold. As I say though - longer range is always a punt.....

00Z EC HRES and Control still both on the mild side of the EC ENS. However, what is telling are anom charts, as attached. The main block looks set to retrogress towards NE Canada and there's a clear signal there for more of an Atlantic influence looking ahead. pic.twitter.com/Szc6aNYSe0

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) November 21, 2018

Precipitation spikes increasing this morning. Can complain the reservoirs desperately need topping up 

Lots of cold runs on there, yes, a good snowfall will help. 

All looking rather unpleasantly Zonal at the moment maybe bit of snow for northern hills but rain for most and lots of it, temps average. Some HLB remains but its not anywhere near the right place for UK coldies.  

Yes big downgrade - hopefully some better charts next week for model watching?