The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 November 2018 11:39:26

I've drawn fronts on the GFS image for tonight which was much harder than usual. Quite a complex area of low pressure. An area of deep instability is projected to move up from the English channel tonight to affect central southern and south western parts of the UK (inc Wales). With slackening winds and a cooling night-time boundary layer the conditions should just be about cold enough for the precipitation to turn to snow even to low levels in the aforementioned areas with snow over higher ground in other parts. 

Although the conditions are very marginal, the precipitation could be very heavy giving the possibility of extremely localised but, nonetheless, not trivial temporary accumulations. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 November 2018 15:51:03

Reports of sleetiness in southern England in the last hour or so. AROME going for a wintry mix for part of the south tonight and Wales.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gavin D
20 November 2018 15:53:34

Bertwhistle
20 November 2018 17:36:28

I was completely surprised stepping out of work at the drop in temperature- before 5pm the temperature was about 2°C, the wind, though light, felt cold (dry?) but the roads were wet. There's stuff falling out of the sky and I'm off out with my power torch to ...er...enhance its whiteness for personal satisfaction.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
20 November 2018 17:41:29

Reports of snow at Vernham Dean and Amesbury, with a rain-snow mix in Andover.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
20 November 2018 17:47:00

Sherborne St John (just N of Basingstoke) now reporting snow.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

SJV
20 November 2018 17:55:41
Snake Pass between Sheffield and Manchester has had a decent covering of snow today. Still passable but treacherous in places.
picturesareme
20 November 2018 18:51:44

Doesn't feel cold enough for snow to be honest... To warm even for sleet.

haghir22
20 November 2018 19:16:40
I thought it was much colder leaving work and the car thermometer showed 2.5c in Epsom. No real sleetiness as yet but with heavier precip heading in from the estuary....I wonder if we will see some flakes before the wind changes more Southerly?
YNWA
splinter
20 November 2018 21:29:14

Flakes of snow coming down in the rain here in Croydon.


Croydon, South London
JHutch
20 November 2018 21:33:43

Snake Pass between Sheffield and Manchester has had a decent covering of snow today. Still passable but treacherous in places.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

A few photos of the Snake Pass on the NorthYorkshireWeatherUpdates page

https://www.facebook.com/NorthYorkshireWeatherUpdates/

 

Polar Low
Hippydave
20 November 2018 21:45:16
Rain/snow mix here atm. First bit of lamp post watching of the season🤣
Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Rob K
20 November 2018 21:53:05

Flakes of snow coming down in the rain here in Croydon.

Originally Posted by: splinter 

What a poetic image that is 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
20 November 2018 21:55:52
I’ve been squinting looking out the window at a distant lamp post to see if I can see any flakes here!

Silly season has started; I don’t know why I’m getting excited to see a flake of snow; when it won’t even settle lol 😂


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Crepuscular Ray
20 November 2018 22:20:55
Snow over 300m today here in the Lakes, dusting over 700m
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Whether Idle
20 November 2018 22:35:48
Snow along M2 Gravesend - Gillingham thus far.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 November 2018 22:43:38

Really vindicates the idea that wind is often far more important than temperature when it comes to snow probabilities.

The precip is turning wintry where the wind is dropping. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Joe Bloggs
20 November 2018 22:44:59

Looking at the radar, the Pennines will definitely be copping it over the next hour or so.

Northern England really has had a lot of precipitation from this easterly - we’d have had a lot of snow if the air was properly cold. 

The North Sea convection machine is working either way. 🙂 Good to see the setup in full swing so early in the season. 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 November 2018 22:51:13

Looking at the radar, the Pennines will definitely be copping it over the next hour or so.

Northern England really has had a lot of precipitation from this easterly - we’d have had a lot of snow if the air was properly cold. 

The North Sea convection machine is working either way. 🙂 Good to see the setup in full swing so early in the season. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Its partly because its so early in the year. Warm SSTs really help convection. Its why 2010 was so memorable, I'm a bit worried we will have to wait until February to see proper cold; by then the convection machine is nearly dead. I mean Imagine if the 'beast' last year happened in December.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

haghir22
20 November 2018 23:45:59
Definite flakes in the precip now here in Epsom. Very wet splodges mainly but noticeably whiter in the lights.
YNWA
Russwirral
20 November 2018 23:56:32

Seems to have been an upgrade of an event conpared to what was on offer in the charts earloer in the week..... as weak as it is...

 

Saying that i wonder if we will see some surprise snowfalls to greet some of us tomorrow at dawn... 

 

Facebook will be interesting tomorrow...

 


Steve Murr
21 November 2018 00:06:47
A lovely evening here 0.5cm here & 2cm on the ground at West Kingsdown :)

Great start to winter....

picturesareme
21 November 2018 01:40:34
odd flake in heavy burst here
Retron
21 November 2018 04:04:15

Lamppost watch confirms sleet here, too; the odd large, splodgy flake in the rain.

The temperature fell from 2.6C to 2.3C in the first ten minutes of rain, but it's now fallen more rapidly to 1.7C.

So, no matter what happens this coming winter, this year's already slotted ahead of years such as 1997/8 and 1998/9 in terms of snow!


Leysdown, north Kent

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