https://www.unitedutilities.com/help-and-support/your-water-supply/reservoir-levels/

some are fairing better than others for our area...

Just been enjoying looking at the view from the N. Hemisphere showing the temps from N. Pole view down:>

Notice the surge of milder upper air temps which seem to occur on a regular basis which infiltrate northwards pass Svalbard and into the Arctic Also notice the temperatures on either side of the Arctic ARE much colder - Siberia locked into the Freezer at -39c to -42c where the Arctic/N. Pole is a less cold at -18  to -21c! It's some 20c colder on both sides esp Siberia which denotes a split PV so surely something of interest later down the line for a cold weather fan?

The ECM weeklies have updated

This week as we know is chilly we know with temps below average for a fair few areas

Week 2 sees a change as the colder air shift east allowing temps to recover for western Europe

Week 3 sees the temps widely above average for western Europe including the UK and the colder air shifting further east

Week 4 see the warmth ease off slightly but still remaining widely above average for western Europe

Signs of a potential warming of Stratosphere pushing into the N. Pole from Siberia in FI:

I was hoping to see the GEFS tip cold in the longer term but that still hasn't happened. There are some interesting synoptics as others have noted already but some signs of milder conditions later on. Will be interesting to see if the Met Office update reflects that.

Good afternoon to all.

😉. 

The next 9 days as suggested by the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS 00z run from today.

We are expecting temperatures at average at least and some areas may get a bit lower.  Some mist, fog and murk is expected, and winds light or moderate from the SE and also from the NE as well, and Low Pressure very far from us but yes we have weak areas of Low Pressure expected over far South and SW then SE UK, and then Northeast UK as well.

High Pressure over the North and NW and NE Atlantic, Arctic Low Pressure NE Europe NNW Russia and over Svalbard and especially over the Norwegian Sea.

Some Low Pressure in Western and SW parts of WN Atlantic as well as over West and North to NE of Greenland and Newfoundland far NW Atlantic also expected during the next 9 days.

Next week more colder and dry weather with High pressure influencing UK’s weather and N NW Europe’s weather, with more chances of frost at night.

By day 10 aka Friday next week not this week: A breakdown across the UK is possible as the GFS and ECMWF Models bring in active Deep West Central N Atlantic PV Low Pressure across us as High pressure might leave us then. 😀.

3 days of increasing temperatures, then an unusual continuous (at same rate) fall for 4 days

But the second week is looking very soggy, regardless of the temperature uncertainty

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

ICON 12z keeps the low out west which keeps the UK in the cooler air with winds coming in from the east

Big upgrade for cold from the GFS 12z out to 171h

Yes, was going to say something similar. UKMO as well continuing its theme of sending energy under the block. ICON 12z too.

All the ingredients are there...

Im just waiting for that one run where Cold air really gets into the charts and this place then goes into meltdown... at the moment, id say it was a matter of time before we get one of those stella snowfest runs....

Cold rain or rain to snow or sleet if this came off? - daytime maxes of +4c

This chart is so close to being exceptional but not quite on this run

GEM starts cold initially with winds from the east then it turns less cold as the low edges closer from the west

+189 - looks like quite a block over the N. pole and Greenland too: Little of any blues or dark purple colours to be seen over the Arctic!?

Probably I’m just hopecasting but who knows.

ive noticed that this past year.. did it loads last late winter, early spring.  Its like it thinks of an idea... doubts itself to then realise it was right all along. 

NAVGEM and GFS P both get the low to the UK 

NAVGEM

GFS P 

The GFS only goes out a couple of weeks, rather than three. But I take your point.

I think, though, it's more a reflection of the fact that any model run beyond day 10 might as well be completely random. 

Pretty much spot on from gfs Snow now in Kent

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/precipitype.asp#

Talk about a split PV: - Look how cold it is either side of the Arctic - esp the central Russian/Siberian side in comparison as to where the Arctic is:

A week from the 5th in FI and bamo! were in the freezer! 

The angle now looks like a possible risk of serious flooding in the southern half of the UK during the next few weeks. Not sure about ground water levels but it looks as though a lot of rain is on the way.

"Be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt".

Groundwater levels vary from fine to rather low down in Southern Water's area, so if the GFS is right - big if! - and there's a lot of rain, it'll do some good in the longer term. In the short term though yes, there could well be surface flooding.

https://www.southernwater.co.uk/groundwater