Agreed, mean is useless with a scatter like that, all options on the table. Snow still possible next week, UKMO holding firm.  Can we get that LP to slide enough.

no change there then Neil 

Love the control's FI:

Is it me or has ECM moved towards UKMO An improving picture for coldies.

cant rule it out for kent wet bulb T would be slumping fast in any heavy showers tough call as ever elevation will help

ECM still going for low pressure to our west and high pressure to the east. Not the best set-up in the mid term at least for coldies 

Indeed, the run ends with a push from the SSW:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Would be a mild finish to November if it verifies.

Spoilsport 😉

I’m actually not as bothered too much these days with what conditions prevail so much as the chase to predict it. My group increases in number daily and they’re expecting accurate predictions (I limit these to 5 days out for obvious reasons 😇)

The 12z ECM op and mean once again is pretty close through-out on the 850's

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

The Atlantic looks ready to fire up before long

Very low chance of that - quite the opposite expected ...

Absolutely - whether we get cold or mild, the outlook is anything other than zonal.

A highly amplified pattern does not guarantee cold for the UK as we all know, but there is no zonal outcome in the model charts I can see.

Pretty good agreement up until around the 27th between the ECM op and ens thereafter we start to see the two differ as the op goes down to around -5 but the mean goes up to around +1

NAVGEM has the low in the Atlantic closest to the UK this morning at D7

As of Saturday 17th NAVGEM was the best performing model 

Still inconclusive and the period from the 27th has super low confidence. UKM of course only goes to 6/7days but it’s been the most persistent in keeping heights to our North.

However, the last two winters in addition to the summer of 2018 has seen a lack of mobile, zonal westerly patterns for any length of time. With everything looking set for a possible blocked pattern during the coming winter which therefore reduces the chances of an Atlantic-driven winter, I am wondering whether or not, it is too early just now to be talking about the death of the mobile westerly pattern and seeing that as something which used to happen in the past, in the same manner in which we were doing with mid-winter easterlies before the onset of those above mentioned Beast from the East events.

UKMO probably the best still for colder weather as it has what looks to be more of a NE'ly flow at D7

UKMO                                                                       ECM

Really? Got a link to the stats on that please?

Steve Murr posted it on here somewhere out to D6 it was the best and ECM was the worst

Ah, yes - I can see signs of it now, if you look closely, on the 14th/15th. An "off" few runs for quite a few of the models.

Normality appears to have been restored since then, and over the whole period it still ranks below GFS, GEM, UKMO and ECM. 

The unusual weather (imho) continues.

GFS 06z is ramping up the low again early next week 

06z

00z

yes, interesting that the block to the north remains...  Seems LPs want to run direct west - east and not up to the pole as per usual.

Theres bags of potential for someone to get an absolute snowfest from this