The Weather Outlook

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sizzle
02 November 2018 09:33:40

Terry scholey said in his monthly forecast that the bulk of the wet and windy weather will be in the first half of November and the second half will be cold but dry he also mentioned the word..RETROGRADE and WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.  https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Solar Cycles
02 November 2018 11:09:38

Terry scholey said in his monthly forecast that the bulk of the wet and windy weather will be in the first half of November and the second half will be cold but dry he also mentioned the word..RETROGRADE and WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL.  https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

Looks the form horse sizzle.What happens as we approach the first month of winter is anyone’s guess and hopefully the old adage of ice in November to bear a duck will be consigned to the dustbin if the second half of this month pans out like it’s being projected to.

Gavin D
02 November 2018 12:18:02
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2018 to Friday 16 Nov 2018:

Wednesday looks set to bring rather mild but windy conditions across the UK with bands of rain interspersed with brighter, more showery spells. With weather systems moving from the Atlantic it will be western areas that will be the focus for the wettest and windiest conditions, with eastern areas generally drier and brighter. This unsettled theme looks set to continue through the first half of November with temperatures remaining broadly above average and overnight frosts restricted to the far northwest. Towards the middle of November there are signals for drier spells to become longer lived and any weather systems may be slower-moving and confined to the northwest of the UK. Given the time of year, the likelihood of overnight frosts and early morning fog may increase by this point.

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Nov 2018 to Saturday 1 Dec 2018:

By mid-November there is some uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

richardabdn
02 November 2018 12:57:50

Weather warning issued for Grampian by the Met Office. According to the warning, spray and flooding on roads will make journey times longer and bus and train services will be affected with journey times taking longer.

The part of Grampian covered by the warning consists entirely of unpopulated mountainous area in which there are no bus services, railways or even roads. You couldn’t make this level of incompetence up.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=gr&date=2018-11-03&regionType=area  


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

Rob K
02 November 2018 13:17:13

Weather warning issued for Grampian by the Met Office. According to the warning, spray and flooding on roads will make journey times longer and bus and train services will be affected with journey times taking longer.

The part of Grampian covered by the warning consists entirely of unpopulated mountainous area in which there are no bus services, railways or even roads. You couldn’t make this level of incompetence up.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=gr&date=2018-11-03&regionType=area  

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

But that is just one tiny part of the warning area, which also covers such rural backwaters as Glasgow. I have never visited but I believe the railways have made it there by now?

 

Are you seriously suggesting that they should offer a different version of the warning text to satisfy a few grouse in one corner of Grampian? 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

LeedsLad123
02 November 2018 13:19:32
There are also plenty of other towns within the warning area. Not sure what the issue is - just Richard being tedious again.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Russwirral
02 November 2018 14:26:31

Weather warning issued for Grampian by the Met Office. According to the warning, spray and flooding on roads will make journey times longer and bus and train services will be affected with journey times taking longer.

The part of Grampian covered by the warning consists entirely of unpopulated mountainous area in which there are no bus services, railways or even roads. You couldn’t make this level of incompetence up.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=gr&date=2018-11-03&regionType=area  

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

 

Weather warning are used by both residential and recreational users.  The Cairngorms and other areas around there are full of walkers, cyclists, runners.  They all need to be kept abreast of expected severe weather.   Can you imagine they didnt and someone got into difficulty?  Im sure there would be worse things said about the Met.  


Brian Gaze
02 November 2018 14:45:12

 

To illustrate just how mild temperatures have been over between 2008-17, the report says that a significant area inland from the UK coast had, on average, less than one day per year with temperatures below zero.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

That illustrates nothing unless it is put in context. It comes across as lazy journalism. I tweeted the journalist earlier today but have not had a reply.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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David M Porter
02 November 2018 16:10:49

Weather: UK experiencing hotter days and 'tropical nights' - Met Office

 

The UK has experienced more weather extremes over the last 10 years when compared with previous decades, a Met Office report has said.

The hottest days have become almost 1C hotter, warm spells have increased, while the coldest days are not as cold.

The number of so-called tropical nights - when temperatures stay above 20C - is increasing.

The Met Office says these changes are consistent with warming driven by human activities.

The new study compares UK weather data from the period between 1961-1990 with the 10 years between 2008 and 2017.

 

The coldest days and nights have also become warmer, with temperatures on average 1.7C milder in recent years.

To illustrate just how mild temperatures have been over between 2008-17, the report says that a significant area inland from the UK coast had, on average, less than one day per year with temperatures below zero.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

A few points I would make in response:

  1. In the last 10 years, the UK has, unless I'm very much mistaken, had it's coldest winter overall since 1978/79, namely the winter of 2009/10.
  2. We have also had the coldest winter month since 1986 and the coldest December for over a century (December 2010).
  3. We have also had the coldest March since the early 1960s (March 2013).

Therefore, I'm not sure how they can claim that the "coldest days are not as cold" as they would have been in times past. The cold events I mentioned above were notable enough. Yes, it is over 20 years since the Uk's all-time lowest temperature record was matched, but to my recollection we have seen more notable cold events since 2008 than we saw throughout the 1990s and for much of the noughties prior to 2008. The first sub-zero CET month since 1986 and the first sub-zero December CET since 1890 were both notable enough for IMO.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
02 November 2018 16:44:14

Further to the above, the MetO are telling us that "warm spells have increased".

I realise that warm spells are not solely limited to the meteorogical summertime, but for all we had an excellent summer this year, I don't remember many of those in the whole period from 2007 up to and including 2017. This years' summer was the first decent one in my area since 2014, and out of the whole period from 2007 to 2017, only 2013 and 2014 produced good summers here. The mildness of the last decade has probably been as much due to notably mild or warm periods that have happened during spring, autumn and winter as it has been to do with exceptional heat in summer.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

idj20
02 November 2018 17:42:27

Weather: UK experiencing hotter days and 'tropical nights' - Met Office

 

The UK has experienced more weather extremes over the last 10 years when compared with previous decades, a Met Office report has said.

The hottest days have become almost 1C hotter, warm spells have increased, while the coldest days are not as cold.

The number of so-called tropical nights - when temperatures stay above 20C - is increasing.

The Met Office says these changes are consistent with warming driven by human activities.

The new study compares UK weather data from the period between 1961-1990 with the 10 years between 2008 and 2017.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 




Given how I nicknamed the past Summer as the season of the hideously swampy genitalia, I am finding myself nodding my head in agreement.




Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
tallyho_83
02 November 2018 18:39:01

Anyone see the BBC News @ 6pm by Fiona Bruce?

She said I quote "Met Office has issued a warning that the UK will face Hotter summers and warmer winters!" 

Yet simultaneously they showed a clip of a snowplow on the move in deep snow). - A little misleading, but that's fine!


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

David M Porter
03 November 2018 09:26:02

 

That illustrates nothing unless it is put in context. It comes across as lazy journalism. I tweeted the journalist earlier today but have not had a reply.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Have you had any reply from Matt McGrath yet, Brian?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Rob K
03 November 2018 09:32:05

Further to the above, the MetO are telling us that "warm spells have increased".

I realise that warm spells are not solely limited to the meteorogical summertime, but for all we had an excellent summer this year, I don't remember many of those in the whole period from 2007 up to and including 2017. This years' summer was the first decent one in my area since 2014, and out of the whole period from 2007 to 2017, only 2013 and 2014 produced good summers here. The mildness of the last decade has probably been as much due to notably mild or warm periods that have happened during spring, autumn and winter as it has been to do with exceptional heat in summer.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Quite right. I remember back when there was a run of dry summers in the 1990s (going on holiday in Cornwall there were always droughts and water restrictions) and the consensus was that we should all be planting Mediterranean species in our gardens. Anyone who took that advice wouldn’t have had much of a garden in the following two decades. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gavin D
03 November 2018 09:44:43
Into next weekend

Generally mild

Rain at times

Often windy

Perhaps a little cooler later

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46080147 

Gavin D
03 November 2018 12:02:34
Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018:

Thursday should see bands of rain and showery interludes move northeastwards across the country. It is likely to be wettest across western parts with the southeast generally being drier and brighter. The wind will be strong at times with gales for exposed western coasts. This generally unsettled theme, with bands of rain or showers moving into the UK from the Atlantic and interspersed with some drier and brighter spells, looks set to continue through the first half of November. Temperatures will be broadly above average with overnight frosts restricted to the far northwest. Towards the middle of November there are signals for drier spells to become longer lived. Given the time of year, the likelihood of overnight frosts and early morning fog may increase by this point.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018:

By mid-November there is significant uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November and into the start of December with precipitation probably turning wintry at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

tallyho_83
03 November 2018 12:47:32

Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018:

Thursday should see bands of rain and showery interludes move northeastwards across the country. It is likely to be wettest across western parts with the southeast generally being drier and brighter. The wind will be strong at times with gales for exposed western coasts. This generally unsettled theme, with bands of rain or showers moving into the UK from the Atlantic and interspersed with some drier and brighter spells, looks set to continue through the first half of November. Temperatures will be broadly above average with overnight frosts restricted to the far northwest. Towards the middle of November there are signals for drier spells to become longer lived. Given the time of year, the likelihood of overnight frosts and early morning fog may increase by this point.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018:

By mid-November there is significant uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November and into the start of December with precipitation probably turning wintry at times.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

 

Promising although this blocking/Cold is delayed somewhat!

Hate the term 'wintry at times' - is this rain to sleet, sleet to snow, hailstones, soft hail, wet snow? - It's too vague! You can get hail in all seasons too! - refer to the "winter terminology that get's on your nerves' thread. 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Solar Cycles
03 November 2018 13:24:45

Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018:

Thursday should see bands of rain and showery interludes move northeastwards across the country. It is likely to be wettest across western parts with the southeast generally being drier and brighter. The wind will be strong at times with gales for exposed western coasts. This generally unsettled theme, with bands of rain or showers moving into the UK from the Atlantic and interspersed with some drier and brighter spells, looks set to continue through the first half of November. Temperatures will be broadly above average with overnight frosts restricted to the far northwest. Towards the middle of November there are signals for drier spells to become longer lived. Given the time of year, the likelihood of overnight frosts and early morning fog may increase by this point.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018:

By mid-November there is significant uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November and into the start of December with precipitation probably turning wintry at times.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Highlights">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 Highlights the even greater uncertainties than normal, thanks to that huge +height anomaly to our East. It’s a tough call as some model runs show heights slipping SE allowing more of an Atlantic influence whislt others show heights slowly retrogressing towards Greenland opening the door to cold arctic air from the E/NE.

doctormog
03 November 2018 13:30:46
The longer range forecast is interesting and must be based on EC46 (or whatever it’s called!) as I can’t see the signs in the output currently. I know to listen to the Met Office though based on when they have made statements like this in the past.
Solar Cycles
03 November 2018 13:40:12

The longer range forecast is interesting and must be based on EC46 (or whatever it’s called!) as I can’t see the signs in the output currently. I know to listen to the Met Office though based on when they have made statements like this in the past.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The EC46 shows heights more over Central Europe Doc with us in a SE airflow so it would still be cold at the surface no doubt. This block to our East has proved problematic since the start of October with numerous model outputs showing it eroding away and allowing the Atlantic back in. I wouldn’t like to edge my bets on this one.

Brian Gaze
03 November 2018 13:48:20

Have you had any reply from Matt McGrath yet, Brian?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

No reply.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin P
03 November 2018 14:17:26

To illustrate just how mild temperatures have been over between 2008-17, the report says that a significant area inland from the UK coast had, on average, less than one day per year with temperatures below zero.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Well I'm about as far inland from the coast as you can get   and I've had "ice days" in:

 

2008

2009

2010

2012 

2013 

2017 

2018 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Gavin D
03 November 2018 20:49:02
Next weekend onwards

Generally mild

Some rain

Windy at times

Perhaps a little cooler later

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46085587 

KevBrads1
03 November 2018 22:05:54

Further to the above, the MetO are telling us that "warm spells have increased".

I realise that warm spells are not solely limited to the meteorogical summertime, but for all we had an excellent summer this year, I don't remember many of those in the whole period from 2007 up to and including 2017. This years' summer was the first decent one in my area since 2014, and o ut of the whole period from 2007 to 2017, only 2013 and 2014 produced good summers here. The mildness of the last decade has probably been as much due to notably mild or warm periods that have happened during spring, autumn and winter as it has been to do with exceptional heat in summer.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I would be interested to compare 1998-2007 with 2008-17 because I feel 1998-2007 was a warmer decade overall than 2008-17 


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doctormog
03 November 2018 22:19:04
It’s interesting but I think I will stick with the WMO time periods when looking at climate trends. Or do we now have a rolling decadal approach?

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