The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
29 October 2018 16:01:59

[quote=Gavin D;1045897]Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Monday 12 Nov 2018:

Next weekend is likely to bring a spell of wet and windy weather, with potentially stormy conditions. However it will be a little milder than what we currently have. Looking further ahead into the following week, it will be unsettled with some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK will be a little drier. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. It will be windy at times with gales, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be quite mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in the drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 27 Nov 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

If ever there was a demonstration of just how useless these “best guess” forecasts are and how they little they offer to business, commerce or individuals, then the paragraph covering that 2 week period highlighted is a great example of why these should be scrapped and any money wasted on them put to good use elsewhere. 

As an individual it offers nothing, as someone who is running a buisiness outdoors, in farming and growing, in retail or in clothing  etc...it offers nothing at all..”.it may change nearer the time depending on how the weather develops” ....what a load of ** **. 

 

 

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 

 

The first paragraph isn't much better,  " Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be quite mild at times."  Why bother!

 

 

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
29 October 2018 18:01:31
October update

November to January

Temperature summary

For November, and for November-December-January as a whole, above-average temperatures are slightly more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 15% and 20%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf 

Precipitation summary

For November, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. For November-December-January as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for November- December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf 

nsrobins
29 October 2018 18:33:30
I think once again people are being a tad critical of the MetO text long range which, by its nature and as it’s always been, based on probabilities.

If you don’t think it’s worth the kB of server space it uses then perhaps you should just ignore it?

For what it’s worth it’s obvious there is no clear signal for the two week range and the vague wording reflects that.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

doctormog
29 October 2018 18:36:29

I think once again people are being a tad critical of the MetO text long range which, by its nature and as it’s always been, based on probabilities.
If you don’t think it’s worth the kB of server space it uses then perhaps you should just ignore it?
For what it’s worth it’s obvious there is no clear signal for the two week range and the vague wording reflects that.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Gavin D
29 October 2018 19:54:14
Next week

Unsettled

Wet and windy at times

Drier interludes

Temperatures near average

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46026009 

Gandalf The White
30 October 2018 00:09:53

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

x2


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



David M Porter
30 October 2018 00:41:50

Next week

Unsettled
Wet and windy at times
Drier interludes
Temperatures near average

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46026009

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sounds like typical autumn fayre then.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gavin D
30 October 2018 12:00:49
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

The weather will be generally unsettled through this period. There will be some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK are expected to be a little drier. It is likely to be fairly cold in the northwest, with perhaps some sleet or snow at times on northern hills, but it will probably be slightly milder in the southeast. However, overnight frosts are likely across the UK when the clear and dry interludes occur at night, perhaps with some frost and fog at times too. It will be windy at times with gales or perhaps severe gales, most likely around western coasts.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather; with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Rob K
30 October 2018 12:26:36
The long-range forecast for the coming fortnight is not exactly looking like a great success, is it?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

By the end of October and into early November weather systems may become slow moving at times. This will lead to the risk of longer unsettled spells and, conversely, the chance of longer settled spells. Western and northwestern areas will probably see the wettest and windiest conditions, with the south and east often drier and brighter, although still with some rain at times too. During any generally settled and drier spells of weather there is an increasing risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the north of the UK. On the whole temperatures are likely to be rather cold, but some brief milder spells are also possible.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tallyho_83
30 October 2018 12:27:47

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

The weather will be generally unsettled through this period. There will be some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK are expected to be a little drier. It is likely to be fairly cold in the northwest, with perhaps some sleet or snow at times on northern hills, but it will probably be slightly milder in the southeast. However, overnight frosts are likely across the UK when the clear and dry interludes occur at night, perhaps with some frost and fog at times too. It will be windy at times with gales or perhaps severe gales, most likely around western coasts.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 28 Nov 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather; with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Which is in agreement with Simon Keeling's forecast for month ahead but he talks about an easterly to End November. But long and short is wet first half and settled but cold 2nd half.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

 

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
30 October 2018 12:30:26

The long-range forecast for the coming fortnight is not exactly looking like a great success, is it?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

By the end of October and into early November weather systems may become slow moving at times. This will lead to the risk of longer unsettled spells and, conversely, the chance of longer settled spells. Western and northwestern areas will probably see the wettest and windiest conditions, with the south and east often drier and brighter, although still with some rain at times too. During any generally settled and drier spells of weather there is an increasing risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the north of the UK. On the whole temperatures are likely to be rather cold, but some brief milder spells are also possible.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

They mean by tomorrow then? Followed by a contradiction - risk of longer unsettled spells and chance of longer settled spells ?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Solar Cycles
30 October 2018 12:55:48
Never a truer sentence than the opening line. 😂😂😂

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather; with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
30 October 2018 20:04:43
Next week

Milder

Low risk of frost

Some sunny spells

Some rain at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46038345 

Gavin D
31 October 2018 11:19:19

UK weather forecast: European SNOW CLOUD to chill UK with FREEZING winds

THE UK is in the grips of a cold snap, and now a European snow cloud is poised to hit Britain with freezing winds.

"This week temperatures will struggle to reach above 10C as winter well and truly sets in"

 😂

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1038484/UK-weather-forecast-European-snow-cloud-snow-radar-forecast-met-office-long-range

Gavin D
31 October 2018 12:20:20
Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 14 Nov 2018:

Early November looks like being generally unsettled with a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, as well as some occasional drier and brighter interludes. Heaviest rain may be focused across western areas, with eastern parts often drier. It will be windy at times, especially in the north and west and particularly where we see heavier rain. As we head towards the middle of the month the forecast is uncertain, but there are some signs that it may turn drier across many areas with rain more likely confined to the north and northwest. Overall temperatures will be close to or above average, particularly in the southeast with fewer frosts initially. However, if the weather turns more settled later the likelihood of colder conditions with frost and fog would increase.

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018:

Further changeable weather is likely at first, although this may continue to become confined to the north and northwest allowing many areas to continue to turn drier and more settled. This will bring some fine weather by day, but with an increased chance of frost and fog overnight, which may be slow to clear through the mornings. After a milder start, the second half of November is likely to turn colder with temperatures becoming below average, with any milder interludes generally becoming short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

nsrobins
31 October 2018 13:54:59

UK weather forecast: European SNOW CLOUD to chill UK with FREEZING winds

THE UK is in the grips of a cold snap, and now a European snow cloud is poised to hit Britain with freezing winds.

"This week temperatures will struggle to reach above 10C as winter well and truly sets in"

 😂

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1038484/UK-weather-forecast-European-snow-cloud-snow-radar-forecast-met-office-long-range

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Perhaps in order to disguise their criminal ineptitude they’re hiring copy editors from the local primary school?


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

SJV
31 October 2018 14:00:48

 

Perhaps in order to disguise their criminal ineptitude they’re hiring copy editors from the local primary school?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Now, now! I teach in Year 5 & 6 and I can safely say the children write to a far better standard 

Solar Cycles
31 October 2018 14:31:05

 

Perhaps in order to disguise their criminal ineptitude they’re hiring copy editors from the local primary school?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Thats a bit harsh on our Primary School kids.😜

Solar Cycles
31 October 2018 14:35:24

Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 14 Nov 2018:

Early November looks like being generally unsettled with a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, as well as some occasional drier and brighter interludes. Heaviest rain may be focused across western areas, with eastern parts often drier. It will be windy at times, especially in the north and west and particularly where we see heavier rain. As we head towards the middle of the month the forecast is uncertain, but there are some signs that it may turn drier across many areas with rain more likely confined to the north and northwest. Overall temperatures will be close to or above average, particularly in the southeast with fewer frosts initially. However, if the weather turns more settled later the likelihood of colder conditions with frost and fog would increase.

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018:

Further changeable weather is likely at first, although this may continue to become confined to the north and northwest allowing many areas to continue to turn drier and more settled. This will bring some fine weather by day, but with an increased chance of frost and fog overnight, which may be slow to clear through the mornings. After a milder start, the second half of November is likely to turn colder with temperatures becoming below average, with any milder interludes generally becoming short-lived.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 The trend is your friend. The cold albeit dryish signal must be gaining momentum down in Exeter, subtle change of wording suggest heights will be close to the U.K. but the scope for something more seasonal later in the month remains in situ.

Gavin D
31 October 2018 20:47:01
Gavin D
01 November 2018 11:54:19
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Nov 2018 to Thursday 15 Nov 2018:

The details are uncertain, but it is most likely that the UK will experience rather unsettled weather on Tuesday with a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, but drier for some areas. It will be rather windy with a risk of gales around coasts in the north and west but despite this it is likely to be milder than recently. The unsettled theme is likely to stay in place through next week, where western areas are more likely to see greater rainfall and stronger winds. Eastern parts should remain drier overall. The milder temperatures are likely to keep any overnight frosts at bay. By mid-November there is an increasing likelihood that drier spells may be longer-lived, but this will also increase the risk of overnight frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2018 to Friday 30 Nov 2018:

The details for the extended outlook are shrouded in uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Solar Cycles
01 November 2018 13:15:14

Not

Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Nov 2018 to Thursday 15 Nov 2018:

The details are uncertain, but it is most likely that the UK will experience rather unsettled weather on Tuesday with a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, but drier for some areas. It will be rather windy with a risk of gales around coasts in the north and west but despite this it is likely to be milder than recently. The unsettled theme is likely to stay in place through next week, where western areas are more likely to see greater rainfall and stronger winds. Eastern parts should remain drier overall. The milder temperatures are likely to keep any overnight frosts at bay. By mid-November there is an increasing likelihood that drier spells may be longer-lived, but this will also increase the risk of overnight frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2018 to Friday 30 Nov 2018:

The details for the extended outlook are shrouded in uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Not">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 Not as confident as yesterday’s update probably due to the overnight/morning runs highlighting heights sinking from Scandinavia and becoming established across Central Europe. The next EC 46 update will be interesting.

Gavin D
01 November 2018 21:26:06
Next week

Generally mild

Often cloudy and windy

Rain at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46065926 

Gavin D
02 November 2018 09:08:27

Weather: UK experiencing hotter days and 'tropical nights' - Met Office

 

The UK has experienced more weather extremes over the last 10 years when compared with previous decades, a Met Office report has said.

The hottest days have become almost 1C hotter, warm spells have increased, while the coldest days are not as cold.

The number of so-called tropical nights - when temperatures stay above 20C - is increasing.

The Met Office says these changes are consistent with warming driven by human activities.

The new study compares UK weather data from the period between 1961-1990 with the 10 years between 2008 and 2017.

 

The coldest days and nights have also become warmer, with temperatures on average 1.7C milder in recent years.

To illustrate just how mild temperatures have been over between 2008-17, the report says that a significant area inland from the UK coast had, on average, less than one day per year with temperatures below zero.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266 

Solar Cycles
02 November 2018 09:20:29

Weather: UK experiencing hotter days and 'tropical nights' - Met Office

 

The UK has experienced more weather extremes over the last 10 years when compared with previous decades, a Met Office report has said.

The hottest days have become almost 1C hotter, warm spells have increased, while the coldest days are not as cold.

The number of so-called tropical nights - when temperatures stay above 20C - is increasing.

The Met Office says these changes are consistent with warming driven by human activities.

The new study compares UK weather data from the period between 1961-1990 with the 10 years between 2008 and 2017.

 

The coldest days and nights have also become warmer, with temperatures on average 1.7C milder in recent years.

To illustrate just how mild temperatures have been over between 2008-17, the report says that a significant area inland from the UK coast had, on average, less than one day per year with temperatures below zero.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46064266 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

😂😂😂😂  

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