The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 October 2018 07:00:25

 

The weather has been bizarre all year.

Now forecast to hit Central Portugal and nearly a hurricane,

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents - not 'nearly, but actual hurricane with 75 mph gusts and 4" rain in a broad band across the middle of Iberia.

Nothing Leslie does would surprise me - into the Med and rejuvenate as a medicane. maybe???


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Russwirral
13 October 2018 07:07:42

Here is another video of the eye of Hurricane Michael, and this one isn't vertical!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-iRXYRRGXQ

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

 

This is almost identical to the video i put up that appeared fake.  I would say this is enough to claim both are legit. 

 

Incredible scenes


The Beast from the East
13 October 2018 07:59:09

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Leslie now expected to make landfall near Lisbon as an actual hurricane

You can also see the Michael exiting the US and still warm air trapped in it

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
13 October 2018 08:55:19

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/130838.shtml?

Leslie has started transitioning

So touch and go whether she makes it to land as a hurricane technically

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Quantum
13 October 2018 09:19:49
Gonna be close. Can Leslie stay tropical long enough to landfall. If so, strongest and only 2nd European landfall on record
25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
13 October 2018 10:51:49

 

I think we're both right. I found this image and plotted the locations on it. If it's all moving north, then Panama City did eventually see the eye.

Click for full size

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

it moved in a northeast direction:)

The Beast from the East
13 October 2018 17:58:15

Leslie now a post tropical cyclone prior to landfall imminently

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 October 2018 18:21:33

A bit of a shock to hear the Shipping Forecast starting like this:

"Hurricane 'leslie' Trafalgar, becoming extra-tropical, expected Spain 996 by midday tomorrow"


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

ozone_aurora
13 October 2018 21:30:27

Leslie seems to be causing current forecasting difficulties for the UK. The cold front is not going to clear eastwards later tomorrow but stall and move westwards by Monday reintroducing tropical airmass and possible thundery showers. What do you think?

picturesareme
13 October 2018 22:33:08
Shamefully embarrassing for sky! Biggest hurricane to hit Florida since 1800's according to sky news.. I guess they are not aware of Andrew and the 1935 monster hurricane. The 1935 storm being the strongest ever to hit the US and left the Florida keys looking like ground zero of nuclear explosion!!

https://news.sky.com/story/17-dead-after-hurricane-michael-batters-florida-and-figure-likely-to-rise-11525239 

LeedsLad123
13 October 2018 23:57:57
I guess they meant the Florida panhandle.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
picturesareme
14 October 2018 00:32:41

I guess they meant the Florida panhandle.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

You'd think so, but with the quality of journalism these days I'm not so sure.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 October 2018 06:24:05

https://s.w-x.co/wu/leslie-portugal-winds.jpg

Chart of Leslie's progress through Portugal


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Heavy Weather 2013
14 October 2018 11:00:22
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45853847 

Looks like there have been some significant impacts in Portugal


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Quantum
14 October 2018 12:14:19

Not quite a European TC landfall but a hair's breadth away!

 

How often do you see a track like this!


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
14 October 2018 19:23:30
The ghost of Michael shows up beautifully tonight on the satellite 😮

UserPostedImage 

Maunder Minimum
15 October 2018 12:21:00

Terrnible flooding in southern France:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/six-killed-in-french-floods-75z6b6wk5

Could this be a side effect of Leslie?

"The equivalent of six months of rain fell in the Aude département in one night, with waters rising as high as rooftops. At least one resident had been asleep when they were swept away.

Officials said that the flooding in Aude valley was the worst since 1891."


New world order coming.
Gray-Wolf
15 October 2018 12:31:44

I thought the remnants of Michael came into France at that time ( shortly after Leslie hit Portugal)?


Koyaanisqatsi

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 October 2018 19:25:48

I thought the remnants of Michael came into France at that time ( shortly after Leslie hit Portugal)?

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

Accuweather suggests that Leslie and Michael are 'dumbelling' around esch other, Leslie moving north into Aude, Michael running from NW Spain down into Tunisia


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

picturesareme
16 October 2018 00:52:07
The remnants of Michael can be seen clearly (and beautifully) last night (sunday) on that satellite clip I posted. At the time of the floosimh in the South of France Michael's remains where still out to the sw of Ireland.

You can actually see the storms yhat caused the flooding over south France on that satellite clip I posted...

Saint Snow
17 October 2018 10:33:11

The US hurricane season seems to me to have been characterised by unfulfilled media hype.

Florence was a damp squib, and whilst Michael had some oomph, its impact was pretty mild considering.

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

LeedsLad123
17 October 2018 10:38:31

The US hurricane season seems to me to have been characterised by unfulfilled media hype.

Florence was a damp squib, and whilst Michael had some oomph, its impact was pretty mild considering.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Florence was ridiculously hyped but if anything Michael was under-hyped - it wasn't obvious what a devastating hurricane it was going to become until less than 24 hours before landfall. It intensified more or less all the way until landfall, whereas most hurricanes will weaken slightly before landfall. 'Oomph' is a bit of an understatement considering it was one of the top 10 strongest hurricanes to make landfall in the US..

And its impact was only mild because the area affected was comparatively sparsely populated. Mexico Beach was essentially flattened. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 October 2018 15:23:19

The US hurricane season seems to me to have been characterised by unfulfilled media hype.

Florence was a damp squib, and whilst Michael had some oomph, its impact was pretty mild considering.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Damp, certainly, but given the rainfall records for the Carolinas, I wouldn't say squib.

A couple of photos of Michael's damage here

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/South-Floridas-Hurricane-Building-Code-StrongAnd-North-Floridas-Could-Be-Stronger

and as Leeds Lad says, lucky it wasn't a populated area or it would have made headlines

 

For some reason, there was strong wind shear across the Craibbean throughout this year's hurricane season which has suppressed cyclone development. Across in the Pacific, the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is in the top 5 years ever recorded


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
22 October 2018 11:16:27

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/084147.shtml?cone#contents

Hurricane Willa will likely be a major Cat 5 storm when it strikes Mexico. But of course no media coverage even in America because its Mexico and nobody cares


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 October 2018 06:40:26

And besides Willa there's storm Vicente with heavy rain drenching Mexico a bit further south.

Out in the mid-Pacific there's Yutu. no danger to land at this time, but may well become a cat 5 storm to make this the second highest total of cat 5 storms globally, and easily the highest ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) for eastern Pacific. Note that these records only cover the satellite era from 1991 onwards.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

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