The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 October 2018 06:06:46

Not quite over yet ... disturbance in mid-atlantic expected to run northwards with some prospects of development (but surely Leslie has drained most of the heat energy out of the central Atlantic?). If it does develop, it will be Oscar.

 

Meanwhile Willa has made landfall as cat 3 on the Pacific coast of Mexico. A long way off, but its remnants are forecast to run across the US and finish up as a nor-easter storm off New England in a week's time, so could be affecting our weather shortly after that.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
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27 October 2018 06:43:40

95L is now officially Oscar, and heading west as a storm in mid-Atlantic. NHC while admitting uncertainty is suggesting a sharp turn to the north east on Monday, so it may inject some extra energy into the various depressions set to affect the UK later next week.

All small beer compared with Yutu in the Pacisifc which has wrecked the northern Marianas as a cat5 hurricane, and after a period of weakening looks likely to strengthen again as it approaches the Philippines


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
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28 October 2018 07:32:38

Oscar now forecast to become a hurricane, albeit a very small one - wind field only 25 iles across, says NHC. It merges with the trough due to arrive here on Friday


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

picturesareme
29 October 2018 21:06:46
Oscar now knocking on the door of Cat 2
picturesareme
30 October 2018 08:20:22
Well at 105mph with more strengthening possible could Oscar become a major hurricane?

Currently on 6mph of a Cat 3.

The Beast from the East
30 October 2018 12:41:27

Yutu now in the South China sea after landfall over northern Philippines

 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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picturesareme
06 November 2018 22:30:22

Im very confused here!

National hurricane centre state that there are no tropical storms in the east Pacific with no development in the next 48hrs..

UserPostedImage

ok..

so what is this??

UserPostedImage

and if you check now it is visible on the loop as a rotating tropical like storm..

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/h5-loop-vis.html

 

A close up.. I mean if that's not tropical then what is it??

 

UserPostedImage  

Quantum
07 November 2018 00:17:11

Looks like post tropical cyclone Xavier transitioned back to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Sometimes this sort of thing is missed but it may well be picked up again in post analysis.

How curious.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

picturesareme
07 November 2018 02:02:39

Looks like post tropical cyclone Xavier transitioned back to a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Sometimes this sort of thing is missed but it may well be picked up again in post analysis.

How curious.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It was spinning for at least 6 hours on the satellite, so yes it is a surprise they've not mentioned it.

picturesareme
07 November 2018 02:11:33
Looks like they have noticed it..

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... The remnant low of Tropical Storm Xavier remains a well defined low level cloud swirl located near 19N109.5W at 1800 UTC , moving westward at 8 kt. Minimal gale force winds occurring across the northern semicircle of this low earlier this morning have diminished this afternoon to around 25 kt. Winds are expected to continue near 25 kt through tonight and Wed morning before subsiding to 20 kt or less by late Wed Afternoon. This remnant low is expected to move across Isla Socorro in the next several hours and then across Las Islas Revillagigedo this evening, bringing numerous showers and squalls.

DEW
  • DEW
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13 November 2018 07:09:48

Last hurrah in the Caribbean? but in fact this disturbamce looks likely to stick at Tropical depression level

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

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