Michael's wind speed 145, pressure 933MB

Folk need to realise that some areas will be rendered uninhabitable for multiple weeks if not months.

That is a lot of folk homeless!

The issue with warmer climes if folk can live in mobile homes/caravans or poorly built shacks.

135mph sustained winds turn that lot into matchwood.

How many big hits can the U.S. before areas become uninsurable ( as in our valley for many)?

Projected path has Michael making a direct hit on Ireland on Monday next week - by then it will just be an Atlantic storm though.

Wouldn't surprise me if it manages to reach Cat 5 by landfall.

Lowest pressure ever posted by a hurricane in the month of October.

Florida panhandle has never had a Cat 4, let alone a Cat 5 if it manages that.

May not be enough time to reach Cat 5. Its already coming onshore

It's not coming onshore yet.

What is clear is that the storm surge with this is going to be very very bad. Forget the headline numbers - not that they aren't bad enough - of more concern is how shallow the Gulf of Mexico is where the surge will be at its worst.

The Eye is still 80-90 miles away from making landfall, so about 6 or so hours it will still be over warm water.

Quite.

Just to add; hurricane force winds extend out an estimated 40 miles, tropical storm winds 180 miles.

Well sun's up so we have some stunning via sat images and it looks like a brute!

It also seems to have begun its NE turn in towards the coast.

Time to evacuate has now passed so folk are stuck watching it in with no chance of escape ( first responders have now stood down until conditions improve).

This could be terrible and so very costly in both lives and money!

Could you please kindly shut up with the warmer climate global warming bollocks you've been spouting in here and take it to one if the dedicated threads! 

This is a hurricane thread and surprisingly enough shock horror bla bla blah sudden rapid intensification of low pressures happens all the time, all over the globe, and have been doing so longer then humans have walked the earth. 

Apalachicola storm surge projected to be 9-14 feet. Factor in the high waves - due to the shallow water - on top of this and the outcome doesn't bear thinking about.

Most folk went to bed with a Cat2 in the gulf ,many folk do not bother to run from a Cat2 so did not expect to be faced , a day later, with a 'Cane bombing toward a Cat5!

For the " this happens all the time" joe , words are easy! post up some links to the type of rapid formation we have seen in the gulf the past 2 days ( in the G.O.M. ) esp. pre 1980. Every area has its own characteristics and so acts differently. This is October and in the G.O.M. so we'll compare apples with apples please.

Otherwise take your fears elsewhere and repeat your mantra to somebody else..........

The Express up to it's usual purile nonsense:

'Category 1 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Winds Scale have a barometric pressure of greater than 980 millibars that cause minimal damage, whilst Category 5 hurricanes with a central pressure of less than 920 millibars'

This is not true. The scale works by mean sustained wind speed not central pressure. And any hurricane can cause significant damage you idiots.

On topic (unlike The Express), Michael may just scrape a Cat5 just before landfall in a few hours.

This looks a reasonable match:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille

 OK not in October, but the origin, track and rapid intensification are a pretty reasonable match.

That's not the pan handle and the 'ghost coast' of Florida Maunds, that's smack bang in the middle of the Gulf coast!!!

As far as my studies go this is the first time a Cat4+ 'cane, in October has mauled the Pan handle/big bend all the way back to when they started making records back in 1851.

Concur Q' , we had been seeing cat 5 winds pretty low down in the eyewall but I guess we're at surface level now.

Folk might now want to view this a a mid number tornado ( F3/F4?)  over many miles as that core whips around the eye. With the eyewall studded with huge mesocyclones there may well be tornados on the front right quarter.

This will be a mess. Just look at the number of mobile home parks are in the cone for the 'cane, and then the T.S., as it rips through Georgia and S.Carolina!

Wind still 145 mph, Pressure now 928

A few days yet but could still prove to be a potent post-tropical storm.

Don't think whether it hits the PanHandle or Mississippi is that relevant to be honest - the big difference between Michael and Camile is the time of year - Camille hit in mid-August.

Folk now trapped there need be thankful that it is coming in at low tide! Double edged sword though as the rising tide will then slow the draining of the surge.

As the poor folk in the balearics found out yesterday, it's not the storm that kills you but the flooding. You can prepared for a few hours of 140mph gusts but if you are trapped in a room that goes under water ( as this storm surge will do to ground floor/single story properties) then you are drowned.

As with Tornados outside will be filled with debris flying at over 100mph so no respite there!

Battening down the hatches is essential but if the wind takes that protection then you also have wood with 6" nails lying around in the floodwater/debris....

Then , as we know hereabouts, flood water is rank! Sewage, oil/petrol and plenty of dead things make a heady brew!

So will we see a cat5 attained or will it hover at high end cat 4? I tend to think NHC will not give it Cat5 but many other folk are already extrapolating such a category from the sat data? Maybe when the damage is examined they'll have a rethink like they do with Tornados? Those Hurricane Hunters can't be everywhere at once in the wat Sat.'s can.

Oh my , oh my! 919.9hpa on the last recon pass!

Still a few hours to strengthen........

Sustained wind 150 mph, pressure 923 mb. BONKERS!

55 MILES FROM LANDFALL MOVING AT 14 MPH THAT'S ABOUT 4 HOURS TILL LANDFALL APPROX

Latest track suggests Panama City - relatively speaking - may dodge the bullet; the action expected (in terms of Michael coming onshore) further east between Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach.

Who would have expected this only 48 hours ago eh?

 

New construction just collapsed in front of me in Panama City Beach from #hurricanemichael!!! It is going bad fast! pic.twitter.com/CG5R8jcUuf

— Marc Weinberg (@MarcWeinbergWX) October 10, 2018