Florence looks like being a really serious hurricane / Florence due to hit landfall in 36 hours.

certainly’ no smileys’ appropriate in these acute circumstances 

Back to Florence. Whichever way you look at it, and whichever hazard you consider, Florence will be a major disaster for a large portion of N and S Carolina later Thursday (wind and surge) into the weekend (floods).

SSTs do not matter for high latitude storms.

Tropical storms are an idealized Carnot cycle, high level cold air can compensate for a lack of low level warm air. This is why high latitude storms tend to survive in cold SSTs.

At our sort of latitude 20C would probably be enough to sustain a tropical cyclone.

271

WTNT31 KNHC 120543

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 51A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018

200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE

AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.5N 69.5W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

Florence about to cross area of deep ocean heat so may become cat5 and if so the most northerly recorded cat5 atlantic hurricane but should weaken to 'only' cat3 as it reaches the coast.

ECM forecasts this morning suggest that it may stall just offshore amd then move south into South Carollina though NHC takes it straight inland. Weather Underground emphasises uncertainty due to weak steering forces.

Some areas may get 30" of rain as the system stalls.

No good news here.

Yes an interesting development in the overnight tracking suite. The stall and turn SW just before landfall is probably worst case scenario for the coastal areas in south NC down to Myrtle Beach SC with respect storm surge.
The Inlet communities in that area less than 15ft elevation really need to out of there.

(storm06_ens)

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Has AccuWeather downgraded this Florence!?

Just that it looks like it will make landfall as a cat 1 or TS not a Cat 4 or 5 as predicted or forecast yesterday??

No it’s as forecast. Florence will weaken rapidly once forward speed slows and she hits the shallow waters near the coast.

Unfortunately the damage will have already been done - and then begins the deluge. 

Sure but if it hit's lad as a Cat 1 or TS that's not going to be as bad 60 -75mph winds) instead of 140mph - quite a difference from a cat 4 or 5 to cat 1! so a sigh of relief.

So Florence will make landfall as a cat 4 - not as the map i showing cat 1/TS?

It missed out cat 2 for some reason!! maybe it's difficult for them to forecast what cat it will be when it makes landfall?!?

Also why does it move so slowly and stalls over land??

The power she has out over open water drives the wall of water in front of her. As she hits the shallows she might be cut off from her energy but the swells are already in play?

Should she do the southern jog then she will still be sucking up water to then rain down on the land behind.

Could turn very bad for some?

Might be worth keeping an eye on disturbance #2, which has potential to acquire tropical characteristics over the next few days.

It is the potential interaction from '2' , whatever it forms up as , on Helena that has my interest?

This is the 'fujiwhara slingshot' I had mentioned and could , potentially, fling a very live storm our way?

Latest info has Florence edging south, with Wrightsville Beach now in the firing line. Forecast storm surge of 9-13 feet, rainfall totals 20-40".

Some suggestion that Florence's eye won't fully engage with land because she will go back on herself and hug the coast.

Yesterday's track forecast for Florence:

Today's forecast track for Florence: - Quite a shift in track!? - I don't know which would be worse really!?

Just hope people didn't travel from NC to SC as an evacuation from Florence, thinking that SC is out of the 'danger zone' from Florence at this rate I wouldn't rule out Atlanta GA experiencing some heavy rain and strong winds!! 

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/weather/2018/09/12/hurricane-florence-weather-update-wednesday-september-12-vpx.cnn

Worth a watch - quite a good and detailed explanation on Florence's track!

NHC still has the coast of NC under hurricane warning https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents but Florenceproving very difficult to forecast due to weak steering influences

Yes ..looks like it will flirt around the northern SC coastal area esp Myrtle Beach and then move south eastward!

I don't understand why they show this as making landfall as a cat 1/2 hurricane yet still call it the worse hurricane to make landfall in 30 years!?

Irma made landfall as a cat 3/4 remember? Plus - people seem to forget - Why isn't the BBC news or Sky news talking about the Typhoon Mangkhut in the Pacific that's heading toward the Philippines!? ANYONE? It's only fair they cover both, bare in mind Philippines is poorer and more densely populated and there could be the potential for greater destruction or even fatalities due to landslides - unlike parts of the NC & SC - which is at sea level!! 

I am a great believer in social justice and fairness and I don't feel that the media are covering the Typhoo Mangkhut - which is equally as dangerous as Florence!?

I wonder if Hurricane Helene could do something very similar to Hurricane Ophelia last year? An exceptionally warm but windy day and being about as close to an actually hurricane as we can get in this country?

Because American lives are more important than Filipino lives. This super typhoon will do more damage and kill many more people but hardly get any coverage. It’s possible Florence will not take any lives. She hasn’t strengthened into a cat 5 but will of course still cause a lot of flooding 

Well it's certainly heading our way, but it's forecast to be post-tropical/extratropical by then.