Interesting Rule of Thumb given in the video: 100/forward speed (in mph) = rainfall (in inches). For Florence, that gives 17" on the coastal region of North Carolina.

And if the system stalls ala Harvey, that would be an infinite amount of rain? 

Joking aside, all impacts have high potential but the amount of rainfall it could deliver should the forecast CONUS high block the forward motion post day 5 would be disaster level IMO

why don't you just use the link I shared earlier? much easier and also option for gif 

With a possible el-nino on the cards too - this is going to be a busy forum trying to figure out what the winter will be like here.

Intensity well surpassed the initial early estimates for this timeline...

WTNT61 KNHC 101556

TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018

1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence

has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds

near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based

on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

Zeberdee needs to tell her it's time for bed!

This has the potential to be a very expensive storm for the U.S. and over an extended area?

If we do see a line of disturbance establish then the weakness will be where the past storm went. If the storm sucked the ocean dry of its heat it could kill and 'following storm' If the track runs slightly north or south then we still get a big storm running into areas already compromised from their taste of the first storm?

Still in this day and age no model can resolve this RI - yet it was fairly easy to see that the conditions were near on perfect..

Based on climate change & in the 'perfect conditions' available they will need to revisit the scale soon to add CAT 6

Every teleconnective scale in the globe has needed to be rescaled in the last 10 years - its only a matter of time..

(*There have been five Cat 5 Pacific hurricanes in the same time range)

Cat 5 is open ended, but I get Steve’s point. 

This system is as good an example of ‘perfection’ with respect the environment being conducive for development from yesterday morning (once the drier intrusion had mixed out) as you can get. Maxed out ssts, deep ocean heat volume, next to zero shear, twin outflow arms reinforcing the capping high and an unusually strong and westward ridging Bermuda high. We even have a weak disturbance ahead of Florence which she will sweep up like an unrestricted hoover causing her to strengthen further. Then we have the prospects of the CONUS high stalling the storm as she hits land.

If you wanted to script a textbook perfect hurricane, we might not be far off one by Wednesday.

The realistic possibility of it slowing as landfall approaches with associated flooding is probably the most worrisome feature at the moment but a Cat 4 landfall in terms of winds would be brutal too.

‘None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,

and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,

and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity

forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close

to category 5 strength tomorrow.’

Yesterday's forecasts being continued with little change - if anything, Florence showing more tendency to stall over the Carolinas and Helene may strengthen and recurve more towards the Azores.

Astonishing number of comments added to forecasts for Florence trivialising or dismissing the situation - it's real troll territory out there! Just hope the trolls don't live in NC or influence the Carolinians.

EC00 op has 700-1000mm totals in SE NC.