Just got home after two weeks in the Dominican Republic and we had no major storms, but a few nights of spectacular thunder and lightning with torrential short downpours, which were very nice.  On our flight home last night, we were warned about possible turbulence due to Atlantic weather, but we hardly had any.

My son and his girlfriend are off to the Caribbean coast of Mexico next Saturday so I’ll be keeping my eye on any hurricane activity.  It’s currently looking quite stormy in that area. 

Hurricanes havea mind of their own! Or more particularly, as Florence has dawdled across the Atlantic, a high level HP ridge has developed which would take it onshore on a track similar to the Chesapeake hurricane of 1933 - a 1-in-100 year event and one of the most destructive storms for the eastern US seaboard. Florence is likely to re-intensify as it swallows disturbance 94L and acquires extra spin from that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Chesapeake%E2%80%93Potomac_hurricane

Having said that,  GFS  is still showing Florence crawling up the east coast a week from now. [EDIT This morning's NHC running Florence into South Carolina]

Meanwhile, TD9 (which confusingly is further across the Atlantic than TD8) is forecast to become a hurricane aimed at the Lower Antilles (the isands nearest S America). TD8 is shown as recurving into the Atlantic and may identify with the hurricane shown on both GFS and ECM in around 8 days' time. GFS keeps TD8 going north sand bringing us a lot of warm air; ECM has it taking an unhealthy interest in visiting western Europe. [EDIT: TD8 now officially Helene]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Threat increasing with Florence and now two other systems brewing.

TD9 surprisingly seems to dissipate rapidly once it gets to the Caribbean, despite being in prime hurricane territory. I assume there must be shear there.

The track is likely to take Florence into the coast much further south than the Grand Banks.

I’m looking at a last minute trip to intercept this hurricane and current modelling projects landfall between Jacksonville FL and Myrtle Beach SC. It isn’t out of the question given the primary parameters being in favour of  intensification that we could see a Cat 5 impacting the coast around Weds next week.

Yes looks like (as the Tropical Atlantic warms) things are really starting to liven up now:

Looks like Florence will become a major hurricane and will hit the USA most likely a direct hit which will be anywhere between Myrtle Beach and Virginia beach, but it could have an impact on anywhere Daytona Beach FL or Cape Cod, Mass!

 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/florence-may-track-near-bermuda-us-east-coast-while-it-restrengthens-in-atlantic/70005975

EC now down the line and close to UKM.

Myrtle Beach and points 200 miles north or south for high-end Cat4 landfall next Weds/Thurs

Right! So am I right in thinking that this HP to the north and east of Bermuda  is helping this Florence strengthen and move across the Atlantic sweeping westwards!? If there was no HP or as they call 'Bermuda High' then Florence would stay well out to sea and shift north eastwards  earlier?

What's worse is that many SE states Esp NC and SC are at or below sea level so flooding will be inevitable anyway! This looks like it could be worse than Irma back in Sept 2017 last year!

I wonder when the Government's will start to declare a state of emergency /evacuation to the public? Or is it too early? I guess it all depends on the Bermuda High!? Last year, Irma was forecast to hit the east coast of Florida - when many residents/tourists evacuated to the west, when in actual fact the east coast was not affected as badly as west in the end. Miami escaped the worse and Irma shifted about some 80 to 100 miles  to the west of Miami. 

From a convective weather enthusiast perspective, it's interesting times ahead, but must be worrying for residents of the eastern seaboard of the USA! 

TD9 now strengthened to become Isaac, still pointed at the Antilles.

Still quite a lot of uncertainty about Florence. It's fairly sure to impact the Carolina coast on Thursday as a major hurricane (cat 4) but then to skirt round the Bermuda high and recurve northwards. Anything from a direct hit and weakening inland to a sudden recurve keeping it offshore is possible. Perhaps the worst prospect is a recurve along the line of the coast, with that coast being savaged all the way up to New England. In support of this, GFS00z has it just off New Jersey a week later(13th), escorted by Helene which has taken the mid-Atlantic route. Any storm surge which is synchronised with a high tide will be even worse as spring tides occur next week.

Staller ? Over water? or Land?

Latest on Florence

https://www.newsweek.com/florence-timeline-update-latest-hurricane-florence-track-noaa-models-reveal-1112810

Over land - maybe within 100 miles of the coast-

Track refinements beginning to reduce now ...

'Track refinements beginning to reduce now' as in more confidence Florence will make Landfall late Thursday/early Friday?

https://www.newsweek.com/bad-thing-florence-could-do-think-hurricane-katrina-2005-1112835

Florence looks like it will weaken a little as it heads toward the coastal area from 145mph to 120mph winds!

Yes quite a lot going on - i'd like to see the NASA OF this - x3 storms/hurricanes in Atlantic at once:

https://loopnewslive.blob.core.windows.net/liveimage/sites/default/files/2018-09/nLTrRVNx9n.jpg

This?

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

looking at this id say Florence was already a hurricane again as there appears to be clear eye.

Now I’m getting a bit concerned about my son and partner going to Mexico. They fly to Cancun on Saturday, staying two weeks near Playa Del Carmen on the Caribbean coast. Are any of these storms heading that way?

Too early to say Caz. Florence will not impact the Carribean but Issac and Helene need watching. A long way to go before Cancun starts to take notice.

I’ll keep my eye on this thread for further updates. Me and hubby came back from the Caribbean on Friday and it was all very quiet then but I know how these things can quickly develop.  Daniel and Becca are so looking forward to their holiday as it’s a special treat for his 30th birthday. I just hope the weather behaves for them. 

How big is the Pacific?

Of all the places in the Pacific...!?

Just how it manages to go right into Hawaii - as in Direct hit and so well!!

Luckily it's weakening! But isn't this the 2nd Hurricane to have hit Hawaii this season!?

You should/they be fine - if it makes you feel better my family and cousins were staying at the Moon Palace - Playa del Carmen in Cancun in  August 2012 when Ernesto hit as a cat 2/3. We had our flight delayed and had to cancel the trip to Cozumel Island. The hurricane struck 1 day after my cousins wedding on the beach so we were really lucky! The majority of the storm went to the south and battered Belize and Guatemala! The yellow is where Cancun is and we had tropical storm conditions!! 

It was quite worrying but worse of the storm went 100 miles south and we just had really heavy rain, tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding - even branches and trees were swept into the hotel resorts and swimming pools too! 

This was the track Ernesto took early August 2012 - which looks like a similar route Isaac may take! - Will see! If if does take the below route Cancun would escape the worse of Isaac. 

https://gma.abc/2CClVKl 

My brother and his wife were in Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic last August/September when Irma hit.  That’s where hubby and I have just come from.  They had to move into a temporary hotel further back from the beach and were confined to their room for two days during Irma!  I got a running commentary from him!  I know the hotels are built to withstand hurricanes as well!  

I’ll keep watching and biting my nails until Daniel and Becca go, or rather until they come back!