'Ernesto' passing through here now, and all it is bringing is desperately high humidity and not a flick of a breeze. Out clipping back a few hedges there and never felt anything like it. Really killing weather. Roll on Autumn. 

Well it's only really been unfurling its circulation so most of the air is unaltered tropical that got drawn into it?

It's very pleasant outside a.t.m. I like it when even the flurries of wind are warm!

To think this was a Tropical storm 24hrs ago!

Ernesto or what is left is not expected to reach west coast of Ireland until around midnight.. 

As for 'desperately' high humidity from past experience we now you think is really humid 😂 

Passed over now and it's well before midnight...

Sky became a curious blackish yellow shortly before dark. Very eerie. 

The met didn't have it arriving until around midnight... the eerie looking sky's will probably have been from the smoke of the wild fires over in the US & Canada.  

Yep, I thought that myself. Very low vis during its passage, which even with the accompanying torrential rain, seemed unusual. 

In the end it appears ex-Ernesto travelled to far north to make use of the Baltic 'bath'. Good side of that is, it saved central parts of Sweden and Finland from what could have been some dangerous rainfall amounts and perhaps winds too.

And they can bugger off as they ruining this month chances of continuing the heat and thunderstorms.  Not sure why hurricanes that start in the tropics really need to travel all the way to UK, it should carry on traveling other places in the tropics or died out.

If I can be forgiven for straying into the Pacific, Hawaii about to receive a hit from a category 5  - worth noting for the rarity of the event and the consequent under-preparedness.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Watch-Oahu-Hurricane-Warning-Big-Island-Lane-Hits-Category-5-Strength

It remains to be seen if President Trump will be as dismissive of Hawii's problems as he was of Puerto Rico's last year

Record 40" rainfalls for parts of Hawaii, but not quite enough to break the record from 1951.

Atlantic amazingly quiet, and apparently even if disturbances do occur, they are likely to be suppressed by persistent and unusually high wind shear. It won't help that SSTs are a degree or so below average, though still above the accepted threshold for hurricane development. 

No action forecast until at least Wednesday which is as far ahead as hurricane models are looking.

For those desperate to see a hurricane in the Atlantic, GFS has one in FI. The 00z shows something potent on the 10 Sep mid-Atlantic, and still pretty strong as it approaches SW Ireland on the 14 Sep.

Some models going for a Portugal hit?

It looks like a Cape Verde recurve so , if it pans out, it could hit anywhere in coastal europe?

Maybe Q' needs to look at opening his 'medicane' thread?

Plenty of hot water in the Med to liven up a recurve!

Another day, another forecast. GFS still keen on developing this hurricane; although last night's run had it bothering Iceland, this morning it's back to running up the west coast of UK by Sat 15th. It doesn't look as if it's merged with any Atlantic trough. It may well be the same feature described in the link as an African wave to watch - the timing is about right (Scroll down to below the Purto Rico discussion)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Tropical-Wave-Near-Puerto-Rico-Gulf-Mexico-Threat-Next-Week

The same link can't make up its mind whether that disturbance near Puerto Rico will survive into the Gulf of Mexico next week where high SSTs give it a good chance of development.

(Prospective) Florence now under way

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

But the models are all over the place in dealing with it when it moves further north. GFS last night had it near Portugal; this morning they have it near Newfoundland by Sun 16th - with a cold core? that shouldn't happen. It's now showing on ECM as a much smaller mid-Atlantic feature at T+240 i.e. Sun 9th.

It's now officially Florence. Track likely to recurve away from land, though still uncertain - may give us a dose of southerly winds in 10 days or so.

The Atlantic appears to have been very quiet this year, but the number of named tropical storms is about average. However, they have been weaker than usual, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is only about half its expected value for the time of year.

The disturbance in the Caribbean continues to produce heavy rain, but little prospect of development.

It now looks as if this disturbance will survive into the Gulf of Mexico where high SSTs will give it a boost. 80% chance of becoming storm Gordon, with main hazard rainfall rather than wind for Florida Keys and later New Orleans.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

Now definitely storm Gordon, and intensifying beyond the earlier forecasts to become a cat 1 hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast. In view of its tendency to exceed expectations, I wouldn't be surprised if it made cat 2.

Florence dawdling in mid-Atlantic, and it's not clear whether it will get picked up by low-level steering currents and run along the coast of NE America or, if it is more developed, by a high-level trough in which case it will come across the Atlantic

Another wave to watch setting off from W Africa

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Biloxi looks to be in a good spot for the centre of Gordon later and here is a live webcam 

https://www.beachcamsusa.com/ms/biloxi/city-of-biloxi-lighthouse-webcam 

Gordon now dumping large quantities of rain alon the Mississippi.

Florence has unexpectedly intensified to a major hurricane (cat 3, just shy of cat 4), the first of the season and as such just on the acerage date for the first major to appear. Latest track models have it moving along the coast of New England and dying near Newfoundland, but some hav it movin inland and up to the Great Lakes. Weather-for-the-week-ahead emphasising the uncertainty last night.

92L and potential 93L now off African coast, with good prospects for development and to become  threat to the Caribbean in a week or so but this also uncertain as may be influenced by activity of Florence. They will be Helene and Isaac if they develop.

Florence was a cat 4 last night with 130 mph sustained winds but has since weakened.

Weakened as it finally reacts to the moderate shear despite palming it off for the last few days.

Intensification likely again in 48hrs and track blend increasingly likely to bring Florence into the US seaboard as a major hurricane early next week.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06_ens.gif

[quote=nsrobins;1032727]

Weakened as it finally reacts to the moderate shear despite palming it off for the last few days.

Intensification likely again in 48hrs and track blend increasingly likely to bring Florence into the US seaboard as a major hurricane early next week.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06_ens.gif

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Latest GFS op run wants to keep it just of the eastern seaboard for 5 days from the 13th....could prove troublesome if :a) It keeps its intensity. :b) meanders further westward

3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good

time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they

have their hurricane plan in place.

I’ve seen a lot of these over the years and when you see statements like this you can be sure that despite the uncertainty there is significant concern that a major hurricane will impact the east coast next week.

On the latest GFS, Florence looks stuck for several days, a week from now, just off the Massachusetts coast. It wouldn't take much of a tweak for it to impact the coast directly but in any case there will be some awesome surf.

The FI charts have a considerable number of features in mid-Atlantic at the end of the run which look like decaying tropical storms/hurricanes.

Oh dear, a slight tweak in the ECM this morning has Florence slamming right into South Carolina on Wednesday. Tweet from @weatherstu:

https://twitter.com/_weatherstu/status/1037999331364823040