Certainly the changing outlook from the models is making August a real 'nail biter' with regard to the final CET and the overall summer position! 

My prediction of 17.5C is now looking a little low, but I don't mind at all. Anything over 17.6C will result in summer 2018 gaining second position in the 'Top Five' CET summer series, and there is every chance now that 18.2C will be surpassed and 2018 will beat 1976 and be the Number One summer since 1659. 

Still early days, all to play for, fascinating stuff!

Thanks for the summary GW.

Even with a 17.0C CET for August, my calculation gives a 17.4C summer CET- making it 3rd hottest in the series after 1976 and 1826. Have I got that right? Seems incredible.

If we got a 17.6 we would match 1826 for second place- except this is based on 1 decimal place and more accurate rounding could put us either side (I don't know what the exact figures are). To beat 1976 we'd need 17.78 for the whole summer, and I've got that as just under 18.2 for this month.

Similarly, to fail to get into the top 5, (ie pip 2006 but just short of 2003), we would have to fail to make about 16.5 for August. I might again have the maths wrong here but going by GW's calculation to 8th, the rest of August would need to be below 15.6. That kind of August has happened 9 times since 1980 (ie <25%) and the synoptics don't look to be shaping up for that from what is being said. 

Thanks GW - It's all up for grabs then! 

Met Office Hadley       19.4c.      Anomaly      3.44c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                   19.66c      Anomaly      3.44c

Netweather               20.33c      Anomaly      4.14c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.7c   Anomaly   3.1c

Peasedown St John 19.2c  Anomaly  0.85c.

Treviskey Redruth   17.4c  Anomaly  0.88c.

Mean Of My Watched 10 Stations  19.53c.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

For the first time since January the annual running anomaly (1.38C) is not far off the anomaly needed for warmest year on record (1.44C). We’ve not broken even yet but a warm rest of August would probably get us there.

Given Feb and March were comfortably colder than average getting the annual record would be a ridiculous turnaround. In recent years summers have tended to hinder rather than help. But it’s highly unlikely to happen given we will have the return of the Beast from mid November onwards and a record cold December.

Thank you Simon and James for that info!    Looks like we’re getting yet another exciting month of hoping for records!  I’m loving it!  

That's an excellent point, Tim

Looks like the cet will fall quite a bit today and the next couple of days with some quite chilly overnight minima tonight and tomorrow,many places well down into single figures and daytime maxes of 19c-20c.Summer has peaked,last week, and although we may have some fine weather ahead it will be more normal british summer temperatures.Two things imo are certain 1) Summer 2018 will go down as historical as one of the best in the cet record 2) 1976 will now definatly not be topped.

Tim S - worth remembering that 2006 also had a cold February and March and still went on to set a record CET which was then beaten by the somewhat more consistent and less dramatic year that was 2014. It did need the hottest July, September and autumn on record, as well as one of the hottest summers, to get there. 

I’m not sure about the second though.  Even if we only get average temps for the rest of the month, it will still end above average because the first quarter has been so good.  It’s not looking likely that this summer will top 1976 but I wouldn’t say it definitely won’t.  2018 has already broken records above those of 1976, higher AMJJ CET and more 30c days. 

Don’t give up on it just yet!  

Met Office Hadley      19.0c.      Anomaly      3.0c.  Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                   19.15c     Anomaly      2.93c

Netweather                19.85c     Anomaly      3.66c

Cheadle Hulme          18.7c      Anomaly      2.54c

Darwen                    18.5c      Anomaly      2.02c

Hexam                     17.8c      Anomaly      2.24c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.2c    Anomaly    2.6c

Peasedown St John 18.7c    Anomaly    0.38c

Treviskey Redruth 17.2c.   Anomaly   0.68c.

Mean Of My Watched 10 Stations 18.93c.  

Today shaping up to be a seriously chilly day on CET.... on hourly min/max so far the day is at 12.4C 

Being quite early in the month the drop could be as much as 0.5c I would have thought today. That's a fair ole chunk to lose. 

Assuming today's max here of 19.1c following last nights min of 9.5c my monthly average will plummet again today.

Last few days mean monthly here.

Yeah has been very chilly today - CET will take a proper hammering for today and tonight is shaping up to be cold as well...

Such a shame that yet again August has had to let the summer down. The first week has been promising, but it seems that it's once again let the Atlantic spoil it and bring an early taste of autumn. Still I suppose I can't moan after that wonderful May-July we've just had. Let's see if we can snag a top three summer now.

Thanks GW 

I did think it was very unlikely we'd beat 76. If we'd have stretched the heat out over June-July-August rather than May-June-July possibly we'd have done it...

The wait continues...

Met Office Hadley         18.5c.      Anomaly     2.6c.  Provisional to 1oth.

Metcheck                      18.53c     Anomaly     2.30c

Netweather                   19.32c     Anomaly     3.13c

Alton                           18.5c       Anomaly     0.87c    

Hexam                         17.6c      Anomaly      2.4c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.8c     Anomaly    2.2c

Peasedown St John   18.14c     Anomaly    0.18c

Treviskey Redruth     17.2c      Anomaly    0.68c

My Mean of 10 Stations   18.61.

Cheers GW.

18.2c was going to be a massively tall order. The significant cool down was fairly well modelled at the end of July so not too many have been caught out in this competition this month.

Big respect to 1976. It puts into perspective just how special that summer really was. 

At last, a sensible (and very interesting) post in this thread.

Some of the earlier comments with regard to August's CET and the overall summer record have been absolutely ridiculous. It's only the 11th August today and, although there is now a cool down in the CET performance, warmer weather is now indicated from next week. But beyond that it's all to play for with this month's CET, and it is just as likely we may have a very warm or even hot end to the month, rather than the reverse.

I'm not saying that August will end up with a CET of 18.2C or more. Neither am I saying that the CET will collapse and we will go below 16.7C and therefore miss a 'Top Five' position. But even with current cool down it's all to play for, and the some of the ludicrous comments posted here are quite frankly dragging this forum down to the level of the school playground.

Let's just see what happens, but any more definitive prognostications with regard to the summer record is best left to the final seven days of the month, when we will have a much better idea as to what may happen. 

I do think there’s a very good chance of us getting the second place, which will mean August needs to be 17.6c.  I think even with the current output that’s possible and max temps have been underestimated by the models all summer.  In addition the output does often swing dramatically, although that could also be a bad thing!

Have faith!  

Currently I'm seeing the 17s as the most likely landing point unless we do manage a proper heatwave during the final week.

Much uncertainty with next week though, as small shifts of just 50 miles or so in the polar boundary will have a big impact on the CET returns. Just compare the 12z GFS with 06z GFS for next Friday in Stonyhurst, for example! This has already been the case in recent days, in fact, with last Thursday giving me a mean in the 18s, some 6*C above the CET mean. It's taking a big hit today though; looks to fall by near 0.6*C!

Models have trended flatter with a more aggressive jet stream this evening, but this is so strongly contrary to the El Nino background state that this seems most likely to be erroneous (albeit only around 70% confidence in that).

You see, as that base state strengthens next week in response to a westerly wind burst (big weakening of the trade winds) in the central tropical Pacific, a weakened and more meandering Atlantic-Europe sector jet stream becomes favoured according to historical precedent, with the mean trough position favoured to be out west of the UK and Europe, with a warm/hot ridge downstream of that.

This has been cropping up from time to time in the model output, but they keep dropping the ball again. I can see that they're making a total hash of the MJO at the moment, which keeps remaining active in a Nino-supportive location in the face of them calling for it to weaken and head toward a more Nina-supportive location, so that's likely a big factor here.

I'll put it this way - based on the meteorological theory, we'd be unlucky not to have a long run of mostly (or even entirely!) much warmer and perhaps drier run of weather getting going by next Sun/Mon. It looks plausible as early as Friday but even knowing that the models are haywire with the tropics, they're voting too strongly against that now for it to be favoured over the later outcome.

Fabulous post there James. I learned lots from reading that.

You're most welcome Gavin 

Perusing the models this morning, it's still a tale of 'almost, but not quite' in terms of the cool-warm boundary (it's not quite as far north in today's modelling). 

The big problem is the Lancashire site, what with it being so far north and west. While the other two sites look likely to see means close to 18 Mon-Wed this week and probably Sat-Sun, maybe warmer still by the following Monday, the northwestern site is being kept much cooler in the westerly, mostly polar maritime (albeit with some modification) flow.

Even if the boundary shifts north by the weekend, the maximum warmth from a westerly up there isn't likely to be enough to recover the situation.

For this reason, the only real chance of getting the CET back even close to 18.2*C is dependent on us breaking free of the westerly flow. 

That makes the signs of El Nino-type atmospheric response, promoting a flow from E or SE over a W one, encouraging if you'd like the summer to at least finish within the top 5 for the seasonal CET mean. 

If only the modelling would start to depict such a pattern more coherently. At the moment it's just hints, and all the tropical-extratropical theory in the world isn't enough to stop that from being a bit unnerving.

All we can do is wait and hope. Preferably while enjoying fine food and drink and ignoring the weather outside today .

Well I certainly haven’t written off August yet and would back it to make 2018 the second best summer.  Nothing is ever set in stone with the weather and we all know how it can throw up some unforeseen surprises. Yes, it’s a big ask but I’m still asking anyway!  

I want this month to be as exciting a finish as July was!  Although by then I’ll be in the Caribbean, so I’ll miss the fun of the thread!   

Met Office Hadley        18.1c.       Anomaly     2.1c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                     18.39c      Anomaly     2.17c

Netweather                  18.95c      Anomaly     2.76c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.7c     Anomaly    2.1c

Peasedown St John 17.8c.   Anomaly  -0.52c. 

Mean of 10 stations  18.43c.