Met Office Hadley      18.0c.      Anomaly    2.1c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                   18.30c     Anomaly    2.07c

Netweather                18.87c     Anomaly    2.68c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.8c     Anomaly    2.2c

Peasedown St John 17.6c    Anomaly   0.72c

Mean of 10 stations  18.32c.

Good Art; the drop is slowing,the temperature steadying. A few more mild nights to come, hopefully.

Hmm we are really up against it though; a convectively coupled Kelvin wave - a phenomena that features a region of enhanced convection followed by a region of suppressed convection - has gained support for being an influence on the Pacific-Atlantic tropical weather over the next 10 days, and it will interfere with the atmospheric El Nino standing wave at least a little.

I was hoping it would be too weak to have a significant impact, but the odds on that have reduced today. The consequence for our weather is more resistance to amplification of the pattern next week than I was foreseeing. Not necessarily quite as much as the models have been showing of late, though!

I believe the warm-cool boundary still has a good chance of shifting north for next week as a whole, but whether that will be north of Stonyhurst, I'm not sure. The boundary may well waver north and south of this area.

Coupled with the way Friday has trended cooler due to the lower transition between the TM airmasses of Wednesday and this weekend, it's looking increasingly likely that the final week of the month will need to be exceptionally warm/hot to raise the CET back to 18.2*C or higher.

Hopefully I'm wrong to be so concerned about that CCKW. It's pain as it's the sort of thing that's pretty much impossible to foresee more than a week in advance and, due to the large range of possible temperatures in Lancashire at this time of year, could affect the final CET by as much as 1.5*C based on my estimations! 

I was reading this article about the three sites that comprise the current CET triangle:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/29/what-do-three-cet-reference-weather-stations-used-by-the-met-office-have-in-common/

In all 3 cases it seems additional heating and shelter has been provided to the north (between NNW and NNE). A light northerly drift in a warm airmass (say, 10C+ 850s) might provide high temperatures. Hate to do it on a 'cheat', though. 

Going by the 92 days of summer, rather than the average of the three summer month, and yesterday's CET of 18.0C, I make it for the rest of August we would need:

>18.09 to beat 76;

>17.27 to beat 1826;

> 16.16 to beat 1995;

> 15.96 to beat 2003;

> 15.48 to beat 2006 (& secure the top 5). 

The first is unlikely in any year, anyway- 18s are a tough call (I remember the disappointment of July 2014). In the latter half of August, this becomes even less likely.

The second is possible, but it would require a good, consistent warm spell- given the current outlook for the N half of England, it's unlikely across the 3 vertices.

The third equates to your common or garden August, and seems comfortably possible with a few warmish spells. The fourth is not that far behind. 

I still think to fail to reach the last one, we'd have to have a disappointing second half of August- say, an average daytime max of 19.4 and a min of 11.5. The Stoneyhurst site may well end up close to or even below that figure- but although there is still plenty of August to go (and that's why I accept this is pure speculation), it would be a disappointment if Pershore and Rothamsted didn't exceed those.

Great analizise Bertwhistle. I still think this summer will end up in the top 3 can`t really see the august cet below 17 this year. A s for a summer topping 1976 it would take one truly extraordinary summer of non stop furnace heat,June would need a cet of 17.5 at least to be within a shot.I remember 76 well and this summer has been nowhere near as hot as then or for as long,although July was very similar,nevertheless summer 2018 has been epic and consider myself fortunate to have now experienced 3 of the greatest summers in the cet record 

I am making this post with some trepidation given there have, in my view, been some unacceptable posts creeping into this thread of late. It is  a very small minority but that is still too many. To be honest I am very close to calling time on not only the CET competition but the whole forum. This has been building for some time and at the moment I am undecided on whether I will still be here come the end of the month. 

Based on the latest output (using broadly the same methodology I have applied for the last 10 years and not cherry picking any data) it still looks like we may struggle to stay above 17C by the end of the month. Of course the output can and often does change. If we do get a heatwave to end the month then the position could be quite different. It would though take a major shift in the models at this point for us to get anywhere near to 18C.

Thanks for the update GW, I appreciate the work you put into the competition and stats, hope you don't go.

Oh dear; I would see that as a great loss to the forum. The analyses, competitions and predictions are all things I look to each month. In fact, I was quite fed up when I came back from Tenerife- I couldn't get internet connection in our mountain retreat and missed the August prediction, meaning I'm out of the annual!

If public opinion can hold any sway over your opinion, you must know from the number of posters who pm you each month how valued your contribution is GW. I know this is off thread- apologies mods- but another pm wouldn't show public support for all the work you do.

Seconded, Bert. R.

It would be very sad if the ill posts of the very few means we lose GW- someone who never has any side to his posts and who contributes so much to the forum.

GW Hope you decide to continue your excellent information.

Met Office   Hadley      18.1c.    Anomaly    2.1c. Provisional t0 13th.

Metcheck                     18.21c   Anomaly    1.99c

Netweather                  18.81c   Anomaly    2.62c

Alton                          18.2c     Anomaly    0.57c

Cheadle Hulme            17.8c    Anomaly     1.64c

Hexam                        17.4c    Anomaly     1.84c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.7c    Anomaly   2.1c   

Peasedown  St John      17.6c   Anomaly  0.72c

Treviskey Redruth        17.6c.   Anomaly  0.68c.

Mean Of 10 Watched Stations  18.27c      

I second recent posts supportive of GW

If month end CET forecasts are what the models are indicating, then so be it (unless it differs from my own prediction !!)

On a separate note is 2018 still on for the warmest May to August CET ?

Please stay on board GW.  So much information and tables you post on here would be much missed...

I second the above pleas for you to stay GW. Your numbers make for as good a model-derived estimate as you’ll find anywhere online, and his graphical contributions are second to none. It would be a huge shame to lose this competition, it offers so much so this forum.

If I have upset you with any of my recent posts, please accept my apologies. I would never want to cause offence, let alone to one of TWO's most brilliant contributors.

Oh heck!  Simon, if I’ve said anything to cause upset, I truly am sorry!  I know my enthusiasm for this summer has been obvious but in no way do I ever doubt your stats!  I know you’re the bees knees when it comes to quoting what’s seen, rather than what you want to see!  You’re always the steadying influence and I totally respect your unbiased posts. 

Please!  Do not leave us!  

This CET thread is the best thing since sliced bread and I absolutely appreciate all the time and effort you put into running it, as well as your knowledge.  Nobody else could run it and nobody else should run it because it’s your baby. You can’t abandon your own baby!  

I would like to second that.

I did get a bit annoyed earlier by some of the other silly posts so apologies if the tone of my post upset you Simon.

I originally joined the forum to participate in the CET competition, and really for me this is the only reason I'm here. So I hope you stay and keep it going!

Just catching up with this. Hope you decide to stay GW. 

Well that's knocked the wind out of the sails on this thread .

In the space of a week this thread has gone from a vibrant and light hearted thread to this.

Best wait until the end of the month and see what happens. 

Hi GW.  Hope you stay as this competition is brilliant and I think you will recognise how much your labours in this pursuit are valued by very many members.

Meanwhile the models keep us guessing. Some of the comment has been frothy.  Its the silly season after all.

Meanwhile the CET's plummet has been very much slowed.  

We shall at least await Arty's daily update on this thread, but I can at least confirm that the provisional mean CET up to yesterday (14 August 2018) for this month so far is 18.0°C with an anomaly of +2.0°C.

I also hope that GW doesn't leave this forum because as well as being the person who has taken on the responsibility for starting these threads, his in depth knowledge and analysis of the CET is something which would be difficult to find elsewhere. That means that GW would be quite a big loss to this forum if he left.

If you have read a number of the other threads on this forum, you will know that I recently came very close to leaving this forum myself. Luckily, I saw the good sense to return and hopefully, GW will do likewise.

Met Office Hadley        18.0c.       Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                     18.23c.     Anomaly       2.0c

Netweather                  18.76c      Anomaly       2.57c

Alton                          18.3c       Anomaly        0.67c

Canvey Island             20.1c       Anomaly        1.9c

Cheadle Hulme            17.7c       Anomaly        1.54c

Clevedon Weather        18.8c      Anomaly         1.45c

Darwen                       18.4c.     Anomaly         1.92c

Hexam                        17.6c      Anomaly         2.04c

Mount Sorrel                18.8c     Anomaly         2.1c

Mansfield Woodhouse   18.7c      Anomaly     2.2c

peasedown St John    17.5c   Anomaly - 0.82c

Treviskey Redruth      17.3c.   Anomaly   0.79c.

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations   18.32c.  

As a moderator I am concerned and also indeed upset if anyone feels distressed enough to want to leave. I've expressed my concerns and hope that obviously GW doesn't leave.

I too hope you stay.

Meanwhile I was wondering how difficult it would be for you to list the number of years each of these sites has been going? Clearly the anomaly means a lot more in the case of the CET series, which extends over more than 350 years, than it does if a site has only been going a couple of years. I'd guess that it probably accounts for why the Alton anomaly for this month is so small and why the Peasedown St John anomaly is actually negative - assuming that's a minus sign and not a dash.