GW!  Come back please!  

You can see from this thread how popular it is and how well respected you are.  People just don’t tell each other how much they’re appreciated and they don’t always recognise a good thing until it’s gone!  It’s a fault we have as human beings! 

You would be missed so much and you’re a valuable asset to TWO.  

Thanks.

I think I was misleading regarding the CET. Although the series has been going for over 350 years, I believe the anomaly is calculated with regard to a standard period of 30 years, which I think is currently 1971-2000.

Totally agree with this. 

GW please continue... Your information is vital! 

I was pleased to see that you're back online and back to producing some great video content, as that was something which was greatly missed yesterday.

Hi GW.

You are highly respected here, you have created a fantastic thread and you clearly have a very sound knowledge of meteorology.

It would be a shame to see you leave. 

I politely ask that you allow members and long standing contributors to this competition the freedom to express their views though. Otherwise this will become a very quiet thread filled only with Arts daily updates. 

Awwwwwwwww.... Thanks my friend. How kind of you. 

On Topic: Still clinging on to the 18's... In fact yesterday we ticked up slightly to 18.1.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Met Office Hadley        18.1c       Anomaly      2.0.c Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     18.26      Anomaly      2.04c

Netweather                  18.8c.     Anomaly      2.61c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.7c   Anomaly    2.1c

Peasedown St John  17.5c.     Anomaly   - 0.82c

 5 YEAR MEAN of My 10 Watched Stations   Same as  Yesterday    18.32c.....    

I think it’s probably the mild nights that are keeping it above 18c.l although  I’m thinking GW’s calculations might tell us that Hadley is running high. 

Indeed Caz. 

The forthcoming dip in 850Hpa's on the ensembles will see the CET drop. Historically the last week in August see's a natural decline in any case as the longer nights start to become more prevalant. Some colder nights in this period will do the damage. 

I fear my 17.48 may end up too high.

Well I went for 17.0C and on the list of predictions it would very much be regarded as a 'cool outlier' had it been a model ensemble run! Of course I am hoping for some warm weather for the rest of August but if that doesn't happen I wonder if I am in with a shout with this?

I reckon so Col. 

Good to see the CET heading in the right direction.  Got to love those warm Lancashire nights.

Now the extended GFS is covering the rest of August to opening of September I wonder where GW is pitching the CET to end up?

To break 1976 we need 18.2C or over.

Met Office Hadley         18.0c.      Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                      18.05c     Anomaly       1.82c

Netweather                   18.7c       Anomaly       2.51c 

Alton                           17.8c       Anomaly      0.17c

Cheadle Hulme             17.7c      Anomaly      1.1c

Darwen                        18.1c     Anomaly       1.62c

Mount Sorrel                 18.5c     Anomaly       1.87c

Mansfield Woodhouse    18.3c      Anomaly       1.7c

Peasedown st John      17.4c     Anomaly    -0.92c

Treviskey Redruth      17.1c.     Anomaly      0.58c.

5 Year Mean of My Watched  10 Stations 18.07c. 

Last night, locally there was a min of just over 9C; today's max has reached 19.6 so far and will probably peak in the 20-21 range if the sun comes out again. So a 14C+ mean for today for us. 

If the CET triangle had similar readings, that would be perhaps a 3.5C deficit under the 18, averaged over the seventeen days is just over 0.2C giving around 17.8C. Thereafter the nights warm up again for a few days, so still a pretty decent August on the cards.

Okay well... a rough estimate using the GFS 00z and starting with the preliminary Hadley CET suggests that it will stay in somewhere the 17.7 to 18.0*C range out to 23rd.

This is higher than the runs of preceding days thanks to the ridge reaching further east for longer - a trend I've been observing with interest.

The ridge then becomes focused west of the UK for much of the rest of the month, but I consider this the Nina-like bias of the model showing its hand; any such ridge focus should be brief before things flatten out again (and then, next weekend or thenabouts, we finally get to try for the height rise right through the UK and on to Scandinavia).

The GFS 06z focused the ridge out west a bit sooner and was then quite similar to the 00z in keeping it there, so the associated estimate is cooler by around 0.2*C as of 23rd, but for the reasons given above, I'm more sceptical of this run than I was of the 00z run.

The ECM 00z had a more realistic quick eastward return of the ridge.

Could we still possibly finish at 18.2*C or above? Well... if my estimates are in the right ball park*, then it seems feasible if we get a full-on plume from the south or southeast that spanned most of the final week. Ensemble modelling has yet to really go for a plume even arriving to begin with, though - just some exploration of the potential here and there. Such a lengthy event would be exceptional so it's not something I'd bet much on, I'm afraid.

If, instead, the final eight days were very close to the long-term average, the final CET would (again, if my estimates out to 23rd are near the mark) be in the low 17s - a reflection of the typical cooling via longer nights Gusty refers too.

Having posted all this, I expect the provisional will imminently be revealed to be several tenths too high to begin with .

To be honest, after the big delay to the Nino-like pattern establishment by the unanticipated Pacific-Atlantic CCKW passage, I feared the CET would by this point have about half a degree Celsius more to make up for than appears to actually be the case.

* The nearest GFS grid point to Stonyhurst appears to be centred on terrain that's somewhere in the range of 100 to 300 m more elevated than the station location, the exact amount being uncertain as I don't have precise grid point centroid lat longs to work with. Just an impression from a high-resolution map. This means an uncertainty of about 1-3*C when interpreting the Stonyhurst values from the GFS data.

I still haven’t lost hope of this summer taking second place by getting to 17.6c and it hasn’t yet fallen beyond that.  Forever the optimist.  Although I am mindful of and an end of month adjustment. 

Great summary SC and the Stoneyhurst adjustment (relating to the grid resolution) is an interesting extra! So we're still together in the shaping up of a historical summer, and it's now!

-- HOTTEST EVER SUMMER CHALLENGE (top 6) ---

1. 1976 CET summer average was 17.77C
2. 2018 so far (to the 16th) ----17.74C
3. 1826 was 17.60c
4. 1995 was 17.36c
5. 2003 was 17.33c
6. 2006 was 17.23c

I think a finish in the region of 18.0  is not an unreasonable higher end prediction at this stage.  Could drop as low as 17.5 too, so I suppose 17.7 would seem a likely pre adjustment end-point, but as we have 2 full weeks remaining, who knows?

Some very high minimums over the next few days should keep the CET fairly stable. I currently have it at 17.64C.

There is a change indicated on Thursday to fresher conditions which at the moment is still suggesting a drop off in the CET to potentially as low as 17.0C by the end of the month.

If the CET did fall to 17C we would still finish just ahead of the summer of 1995 at 17.41C overall.

TABLE

Brilliant detailed information GW. Thank you and and your data is an invaluable counterpoint to the Met O and other crude measurements. I’m finding this end of summer run-in riveting. 

Thanks GW! 

Looking at a low "17's" finish then!