The Weather Outlook

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Bolty
29 July 2018 17:04:15
I'm going for another warmer than average month, but not to the extent of June and July. Still comfortably our warmest August since 2003, but I get a feeling that cooler nights during any anticyclonic spells will pull the average down a bit. Also, I get a sense that the Atlantic may be knocking on the door by the final ten days of the month.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2018 17:33:17
Just because nobody else will: 14.5C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
springsunshine
29 July 2018 18:17:56

Well ive posted my prediction as It looks like the first half of August is looking blisteringly hot and wouldn`t be surprised to see an August cet of 19c+ around mid month but its August and we all know what this month has been like recently! I think,just a hunch the last 3rd of the month will effectively see the end of summer and certainly the end of 30c temperatures and it won`t beat 1976 but overall summer 2018 could end up 2nd or 3rd place in the cet series and in just over a months time it could be the best ever for those under40 and the 2nd best ever for myself and others over 40. Its going to be an interesting month!!

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2018 18:38:48

I’ve PM’d my guess!

Yes it would take a phenomenal effort now to beat summer 1976 as a whole, but I’m hoping it’s the second best summer I’ve experienced!     

The question is, can August add to the records already broken this summer?  If July turns out to be 19.1c, it will have beaten the record for the highest May, June, July CET, so it’s already been historical!  Will this be another month with a knife edge finish?  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Gusty
29 July 2018 20:56:23

Too many people showing their cards. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

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ARTzeman
29 July 2018 21:17:06

My 10 stations have been averaged for the last 6 years . Already to go for starters on August 2nd. My CET will be mailed in the morning. Not a high one.....




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2018 04:43:18

I'm going for another warmer than average month, but not to the extent of June and July. Still comfortably our warmest August since 2003, but I get a feeling that cooler nights during any anticyclonic spells will pull the average down a bit. Also, I get a sense that the Atlantic may be knocking on the door by the final ten days of the month.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

That's probaby about right. It's easy to get carried away looking at very hot forecasts for the first half of the month and imagining the entire month will be like that. Neither do you want to predict a figure that you want, rather than something more realistic. So I will be going for warm/very warm but nothing exceptional. There will be no 19C prediction from me, much as I might like it to be!


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2018 05:05:00

Too many people showing their cards. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Or their poker faces Steve!  

I don’t mind saying I’m tempted to back August as the icing on the cake to beat ‘76 but there’s a tiny niggle that says it won’t.  I think/hope night time temps might peg it down, either that or I’ve become so emotionally attached to this lovely summer that I want to nurture it and not make too many demands on it!  

However, I do think it will be a top five contender!  It’s been memorable already and it’s only a gut feeling, I know nothing about models or tea leaves, but I think we have plenty more good weather to come!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2018 05:20:14

Or their poker faces Steve!  

I don’t mind saying I’m tempted to back August as the icing on the cake to beat ‘76 but there’s a tiny niggle that says it won’t.  I think/hope night time temps might peg it down, either that or I’ve become so emotionally attached to this lovely summer that I want to nurture it and not make too many demands on it!  

However, I do think it will be a top five contender!  It’s been memorable already and it’s only a gut feeling, I know nothing about models or tea leaves, but I think we have plenty more good weather to come!   

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Watch out for those pesky North-West Englanders and their rotten weather 'letting the side down'. Stoneyhurst averages their first air frost in the last week of August you know!


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Caz
  • Caz
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30 July 2018 06:13:03

Watch out for those pesky North-West Englanders and their rotten weather 'letting the side down'. Stoneyhurst averages their first air frost in the last week of August you know!

Originally Posted by: Col 

  I’m a softy!  I feel sorry for Stonehurst.  It gets all the flak and the worst of the weather!  

I’m really hoping we get a settled month more like June, with high temps and sunshine more widely spread!  I’m stuck in the middle, so I don’t want a North/South war to break out!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Whether Idle
30 July 2018 06:48:38

Back in June, of course, it was the very fact that Stoneyhurst is close to the west coast/Irish Sea ( and that therefore the CET has a NW bias) that allowed the CET to get to where it did (above 16c), whereas further SE continued NElies suppressed daytime maxima and did not bring warm nights either.

The moral of the story being - it just does not wash if people criticise the CET locations one month when it does not suit their guess, (indicative of cherry picking), and of having very short memories, as the month before the same location would have benefitted them!

Anyone in this competition should enter it with at the very least an elementary understanding of where the 3 stations are, and deal with it, not use it as a justification nor as an excuse.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
30 July 2018 08:22:41

I gave Stoneybust (partly tongue in cheek and partly out of frustration) a hard time in July due to its location and its inability to tap into the heat of Central England.

As Phil has said it works both ways. My April and June predictions were very close to the mark as I'd considered the NW fact. It was clear that Lancashire was enjoying the lions share of the warmth compared stations elsewhere due to the light easterly influence..

Having Stoneyhurst is indeed healthy for the competition and gets us away from a very SE centric view.

For what its worth the CET competition is fantastic and for me is going from strength to strength. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2018 09:43:55

Back in June, of course, it was the very fact that Stoneyhurst is close to the west coast/Irish Sea ( and that therefore the CET has a NW bias) that allowed the CET to get to where it did (above 16c), whereas further SE continued NElies suppressed daytime maxima and did not bring warm nights either.

The moral of the story being - it just does not wash if people criticise the CET locations one month when it does not suit their guess, (indicative of cherry picking), and of having very short memories, as the month before the same location would have benefitted them!

Anyone in this competition should enter it with at the very least an elementary understanding of where the 3 stations are, and deal with it, not use it as a justification nor as an excuse.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Spot on!  And Steve’s right too!  

This has always been a lighthearted and fun competition and most of us take the gentle ribbing as fun.  We just need to keep it that way!  

Good luck for August!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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golfingmad
31 July 2018 21:15:32

Spot on!  And Steve’s right too!  

This has always been a lighthearted and fun competition and most of us take the gentle ribbing as fun.  We just need to keep it that way!  

Good luck for August!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I think we need all the luck we can get for this August, as judging by the current model output anything can happen!

 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
LeedsLad123
31 July 2018 21:19:37

 

Watch out for those pesky North-West Englanders and their rotten weather 'letting the side down'. Stoneyhurst averages their first air frost in the last week of August you know!

Originally Posted by: Col 

Thought I would actually check and Stonyhurst does not average air frost in any month until October - so rest assured that won't be an issue.  In fact, you're much more likely to see air frost in August in places like Santon Downham or Benson. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
31 July 2018 21:33:39

 

Thought I would actually check and Stonyhurst does not average air frost in any month until October - so rest assured that won't be an issue.  In fact, you're much more likely to see air frost in August in places like Santon Downham or Benson. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

But you knew I was just joking of course 🙂 MId to late October sounds about right for the first air frost.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 05:02:16

Here we go then guys!  Another fun month of summer ahead!  

I already know I’ve got no chance with my guess this month but I’m in it for the ride and will remain steadfast and decisive - I think!    


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Rob K
01 August 2018 12:15:56
I've engaged full reverse psychology mode and gone for a below average month...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Snow Hoper
01 August 2018 13:54:50

I've engaged full reverse psychology mode and gone for a below average month...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I've gone the other way and smashed what's needed to beat 1976


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

ARTzeman
01 August 2018 15:14:05

My Prediction is less than the average that I will be using for August.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 15:55:18

 

I've gone the other way and smashed what's needed to beat 1976

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

I pretended it didn’t matter either way and ignored records. Just like you’d ignore a naughty, attention seeking child, to make it behave better!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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ARTzeman
01 August 2018 16:03:28

I pretended it didn’t matter either way and ignored records. Just like you’d ignore a naughty, attention seeking child, to make it behave better!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I like being naughty.... 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

golfingmad
01 August 2018 17:40:12

I pretended it didn’t matter either way and ignored records. Just like you’d ignore a naughty, attention seeking child, to make it behave better!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I was naughty with my July prediction and looked what happened to me


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 19:04:25

I was naughty with my July prediction and looked what happened to me

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

No, you were brave!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Hungry Tiger
01 August 2018 19:11:45

No, you were brave!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I went for 18.5C for July but given how things have turned out - I am not disappointed.

I know perhaps we're not supposed to mention them - But I've gone for 18.3C for August - it would be nice to get that as it would put this summer in as number one.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



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