The Weather Outlook

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Global Warming
24 July 2018 21:59:53

Are you really expecting a below average daily CET on the 29th? Cold night presumably.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

12C overnight temperatures at most of the CET stations and maximums of 20-23C. So just all round cooler than of late. 

The only reason that Saturday is above average is because of slightly higher minimums due to cloud associated with fronts clearing through on Friday night.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2018 04:54:57

 

I

I'm going to find out about the stations used for the CET in the 1970s, covering the summer of 1976. I will be very interested in their location. But certainly the current selection as far as I'm concerned is a bit of a joke. And please, I didn't get a First in geography now to be told that Lancashire is in central England, WHICH IT ISN'T.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Good job I never claimed it was then, isn't it?


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

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Whether Idle
25 July 2018 05:49:43

Lets be honest. NW England is letting the side down. For millions of us in the UK this is incredible. No excuses Stonywhatever...pull your weight. :)

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Keep trying Steve.  If you give it everything, show commitment and stick by your 19.45c values then your will will overcome the influence of The Atlantic on Lancashire.  


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
25 July 2018 06:05:03

 Keep trying Steve.  If you give it everything, show commitment and stick by your 19.45c values then your will will overcome the influence of The Atlantic on Lancashire.  

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Nah..gave up on 19.45c a few days ago Phil. I've settled for an optmistic 19.2c.

My main priority now is keeping cool. I shall enjoy watching the CET fall after Friday while mopping my brow in near 30c heat.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Snow Hoper
25 July 2018 07:49:45

19.4C here.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2018 08:13:20

  Sounds like you lot had a party last night!  

So just to pour oil on the North/South divide, my location is neither.  It’s somewhere in the middle and the CET is generally representative of my daily averages. Art usually posts the mean for a station at Mansfield Woodhouse, only a few miles from me and it pretty much tally’s with his Hadley figure. 

So, I generally expect the South to be warmer and the North to be cooler with me stuck in the middle!  So I reckon the Hadley stations show a good average of Central England Temperatures!   

I think those who want historical comparisons for their own back yard should compile a summer index, like the one Kev’s done for Manchester.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Whether Idle
25 July 2018 08:25:46

 

I think those who want historical comparisons for their own back yard should compile a summer index

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Ive done this work for people.  See the Simple Summer Index thread.  Goes back to 2001.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2018 08:40:44

 

Ive done this work for people.  See the Simple Summer Index thread.  Goes back to 2001.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 Yes, I’ve posted on it a couple of times!  I think it’s a great method of comparing variations across the country, if only more people did it!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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golfingmad
25 July 2018 08:59:43

 

Lancashire isn't central England, but London and Bristol certainly aren't either, so why expect more stations in the south while simutaneously criticising the fact that Stonyhurst is includedSomewhere like Manchester is more central to England than either London or Bristol, so why would a triangle including either of those places be any better or more reflective of central England? Answer: they wouldn't.


I think the issue here really is some southerners are upset that the less hot conditions in the rest of England will ruin the chances of a 19C+ month, but that just reflects what conditions have been like in most of the country. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

If you read my comment again, you will see that I specifically excluded London and Bristol, so I'm not sure why you should say that? Nothing against NW England or Lancashire in particular, it's just this part of England is NOT geographically in central England. And my heritage by the way isn't southern England, but Yorkshire and Scotland, so your flippant comment with regard to 'southerners' doesn't apply to me.

Clearly when Manley put the CET series together he was relying on verifiable temperature records stretching back to 1659. Some of these statistics are derived from areas such as Stoneyhurst which are not in central England. It may well be then that the label 'Central England' with regard to the CET series is somewhat of a misnomer. I think we just have to accept that, and get on with it.

 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Gavin P
25 July 2018 09:53:10

Tonight's update on the CET

Today's figure by my calculations is 20.58C

The running CET mean now stands at 19.14C

I expect the CET to peak at 19.32C on Friday.

The final figure is expected to be 19.09C based on the latest output. 

Those last four days make a big difference. If the heat was to hold on until Tuesday then a 19.5C CET would be very likely. As it is we may have to settle for 19.1C.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Thanks GW. 

 

So in the end we come out behind July 2006, July 1983 and August 1995.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2018 09:57:35

 

Thanks GW. 

So in the end we come out behind July 2006, July 1983 and August 1995.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

It looks that way Gav but it’s not over till the fat clouds leak!  Although GW’s calculations are usually on the mark. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Gavin P
25 July 2018 10:37:00

GW's projections are always spot on! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl

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ARTzeman
25 July 2018 11:34:47

Met Office Hadley     19.4c.    Anomaly     3.5c.  Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                  19.88c   Anomaly     3.10c

Netweather               19.88c   Anomaly     3.88c

Alton                       19.9c     Anomaly     1.6c

Canvey Island        21.0c      Anomaly     1.86c

Cheadle Hulme  19.7c     Anomaly     2.5c

Clevedon Weather 20.9c    Anomaly   2.42c

Darwen                  20.1c     Anomaly      2.44c

Hexam                   18.3c     Anomaly      2.0c

Mount Sorrel          20.1c     Anomaly       2.42c

Mansfield Woodhouse   19.4c   Anomaly   1.4c

Peasedown St John  20.78c   Anomaly   2.24c

Treviskey Redruth Cornwall 18.3c   Anomaly  0.84c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations = 19.84c..       




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
25 July 2018 21:54:07

Stonyhurst was very chilly this morning with a single figure minimum. Pershore failed to make a 20C mean temperature. So overall the CET stations were significantly less hot than yesterday with a mean of 19.63C.

The running mean now stands at 19.16C.

A CET date record is expected tomorrow and the CET should peak at 19.36C on Friday.

The temperatures after Friday keep getting lower each day and we struggle to reach average on all of the days from Saturday to Tuesday.

Current estimate is for a final CET of 19.07C. So 19.1C continues to be the favoured final outcome.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 09:32:46

Stonyhurst was very chilly this morning with a single figure minimum. Pershore failed to make a 20C mean temperature. So overall the CET stations were significantly less hot than yesterday with a mean of 19.63C.

The running mean now stands at 19.16C.

A CET date record is expected tomorrow and the CET should peak at 19.36C on Friday.

The temperatures after Friday keep getting lower each day and we struggle to reach average on all of the days from Saturday to Tuesday.

Current estimate is for a final CET of 19.07C. So 19.1C continues to be the favoured final outcome.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 Cheers GW. I was hoping temps would get higher, not lower but hey-ho, 19.1c is certainly not to be sniffed at.  It’s been such an interesting month that I’d forgotten this is supposed to be a ‘fun’ competition!  Although it’s certainly been fun!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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ARTzeman
26 July 2018 10:21:45

Met Office Hadley      19.4c.    Anomaly   3.4c. Provincial to 25th.

Metcheck                   19.61c.   Anomaly   3.15c

Netweather                19.89c    Anomaly   3.4c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.4c.  Anomaly  1.4c

Peasedown St John  20.81c  Anomaly 2.27c.

Treviskey Redruth Cornwall 18.2c Anomaly 0.74c.

 

Mean of 10 stations = 19.77c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 19:50:05
33C at Rothamsted, 32C at Pershore and 28C at Stonyhurst today. So a warmish CET to be expected.

We just need to keep July above 19. No records, more important is that August counts as “hot”, which really means 18C+ but 17.5 would be ok.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Global Warming
26 July 2018 20:44:49

As expected a CET date record today. A mean of 22.4C beating the previous high of 21.3C set in 1948.

The CET was spoilt slightly by a cool start to the day at Pershore College with a minimum of 11.8C. That said we were slightly lucky with the high minimum at Stonyhurst. Other places not too far away, such as Rostherne, saw a much cooler night with temperatures into single figures.

The running CET mean now stands at 19.28C

We will probably just miss out on a CET date record tomorrow but it will be close.

The estimated temperatures for the final four days of the month continue to fall day by day. So all four of the final days of this month may now be below average against the CET mean. 

The final CET mean is now expected to be 19.04C. So still just about above 19C but it could be close.

golfingmad
26 July 2018 20:48:36

As expected a CET date record today. A mean of 22.4C beating the previous high of 21.3C set in 1948.

The CET was spoilt slightly by a cool start to the day at Pershore College with a minimum of 11.8C. That said we were slightly lucky with the high minimum at Stonyhurst. Other places not too far away, such as Rostherne, saw a much cooler night with temperatures into single figures.

The running CET mean now stands at 19.28C

We will probably just miss out on a CET date record tomorrow but it will be close.

The estimated temperatures for the final four days of the month continue to fall day by day. So all four of the final days of this month may now be below average against the CET mean. 

The final CET mean is now expected to be 19.04C. So still just about above 19C but it could be close.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

It'll probably come out at 18.9C, just to annoy everyone


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 20:51:24

Oooh!  Knife edge stuff!  I do so hope it ends above 19c because it’s been such an exciting month it really deserves to!    Woman’s logic!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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golfingmad
26 July 2018 20:53:16

Oooh!  Knife edge stuff!  I do so hope it ends above 19c because it’s been such an exciting month it really deserves to!    Woman’s logic!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Certainly nail biting stuff. Would be nice to get 19.0C


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
ARTzeman
27 July 2018 10:22:32

Met Office Hadley      19.5c.     Anomaly     3.5c. provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                   19.78c    Anomaly     3.32c

Netweather                20.1c      Anomaly     3.52c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.7c    Anomaly    1.7c

Peasedown St John   20.65c.   Anomaly    2.11c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations = 20.12c.     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2018 11:06:25

Another uptick!  One more day before the slide!    If only these temps could last the month out!  Let’s hope it sticks inside the 19c mark. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2018 19:18:09
Should be another good day for the CET: 30C in Rothamsted, 29C in Pershore and 28C at Stonyhurst.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Global Warming
27 July 2018 19:21:35

Another CET date record today and it was also slightly higher than yesterday. CET mean of 22.56C.

Running CET mean is now at 19.42C.

But no real change in the final position. Current output suggests a final CET of 19.05C.

A shame really the heat could not have lasted another 4 days. If the extreme heat had carried on to the end of the month we could probably have got to 19.8C and set an all time CET record.

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