Ah thanks. That’s good because Pershore appears on the automatic read outs and Malvern doesn’t. So I use Pershore as the proxy anyway.

Today looks like giving us 25-27C at Rothamsted and Pershore and a furnace-like 19C at Stonyhurst.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I take it to mean that if you construct a triangle between Pershore College Worcs, Rothamsted Herts and Stonyhurst Lancs then the "centre of gravity" is Central England

You would get some strange results if you just had 1 reading in Birmingham (say) as all the local vagaries of particular weather in that one area would come through rather than the average over a wider area

The Late Philip Eden continued to measure the so called "Manley CET" which he based on the original choice of stations which were nearby the current Met Office ones as I recall and published monthly discrepancies. These differences were by and large insignificant but the odd month used to have somewhat larger ones

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Yes that is the key point. It is meant to be a triangle within which you find central England.

Whether or not you agree that calling it the Central England Temperature is appropriate, we have to stick with Manley's original methodology because that is the only way to genuinely compare the data all the way back to 1659. The Met Office do have their own regional data series which only goes back to about 1910.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

It would be interesting to know the various CET recording stations over time, and how they have changed in distribution to the present.

The concept of drawing a triangle within the geographical heart of England is understood. However, using stations positioned on the periphery of the triangle, rather than choosing a variety of stations dispersed within the triangle, strikes me as being strange. Certainly one parameter, to choose stations not within geographical proximity to a coastline obviously makes sense, but choosing a station that's not far from Blackpool doesn't make any sense at all.

There is also the question of latitude. However you wish to draw the triangle, Lancashire is not in central England. If we use latitudinal constructs, it is in northern England. The same as has been said also applies to any station located in southern England.

Either way, it doesn't make sense. But it does make sense when the 'adjustments' are made and the final CET figure appears suppressed, given that one station is in a quasi-maritime position in Northern England.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Yes that is the key point. It is meant to be a triangle within which you find central England.

Whether or not you agree that calling it the Central England Temperature is appropriate, we have to stick with Manley's original methodology because that is the only way to genuinely compare the data all the way back to 1659. The Met Office do have their own regional data series which only goes back to about 1910.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Come on NW England. Pull your weight. We desperately need your support to break the 1976 record. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Precisely. NW England is dragging down the 'Central England' temperature record.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Minima of 16 and 17 this morning at the CET stations, warmest of the year so far.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Will it all be going up this week ????

Met Office Hadley       19.2c.  Anomaly    3,3c, Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                    19.38c  Anomaly   2.92c

Netweather                 19.67c  Anomaly   3.18c

Canvey Island           20.7c     Anomaly   1.76c

Clevedon Weather     20.9c     Anomaly    2.64c

Mansfield Woodhouse 19.2c   Anomaly   1.2c

Peasedown St John 20.59c  Anomaly 2.05c.

Mean Of 10 Stations  =  19.79c. 

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Yes Art, I think it will rise this week, especially as nighttime minima are looking high.    

19.7c is going to be tough to beat though at this stage of the month.  Still not impossible though if high temps reach further West, but time will tell!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I think anything 19.0C and over will be significant enough. But I agree 19.7C very unlikely now, but if it were to equal or surpass the 19.5C of July 1983 to gain second or joint second spot that would be an incredible achievement. With this mornings GFS run that's certainly within the bounds of possibility!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Its not out of the question that we could break the 20c barrier,a long shot but not impossible!

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

I think up to Friday it might even look achievable.  Then the last four days are forecast cooler but if they’re underestimated it’s not impossible!  I think it’s more realistic to hope for a second place spot. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Warmest CET mean of the year today with 21.78C according to my calculations. Not far off the date record of 22.4C.

I have amended my calculation methodology slightly because in these conditions the maximum temperature is often quite a lot higher than the hourly maximum. Given we don't have absolute maximums published for Stonyhurst and Pershore College this is an important issue in trying to estimate the actual CET. This is now reflected as best I can in my calculations. Basically I do this by comparing the difference between the absolute maximum and hourly maximum at nearby SYNOP stations - e.g. for Pershore College I use Pershore obviously and for Stonyhurst I use Rostherne as that is the closest suitable station.

This change does not make much of a difference because the understated maximums by day are partly offset by understated minimums at night. However, at least at this time of year, the understatement of the maximums is the bigger figure.

So with this adjustment and taking into account the 21.78C figure from today I calculate the CET is currently at 19.07C.

The CET is expected to rise to 19.24C by the 27th which is the peak. However, much cooler conditions thereafter mean that my estimate of the final CET is currently 19.03C. So we still are not guaranteed to finish above 19C.

That said the actual returns over the next four days will I am sure be higher than the figures I am using. But that will probably only add about 0.1C. So at this point I think 19.1 - 19.2C is the best we are likely to do.

The only way we can reach 19.5C is if the hot conditions of this week continue right through to the end of the month which seems highly unlikely.

We can rule out 20C at this point. Zero chance of getting there now. I also rule out 19.7C. Minimal chance of seeing that even if the hot conditions continue. Outside chance of getting to 19.5C if the current model output is wrong for Saturday onwards. If the current output verifies, zero chance of getting to 19.5C.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Warmest CET mean of the year today with 21.78C according to my calculations. Not far off the date record of 22.4C.

I have amended my calculation methodology slightly because in these conditions the maximum temperature is often quite a lot higher than the hourly maximum. Given we don't have absolute maximums published for Stonyhurst and Pershore College this is an important issue in trying to estimate the actual CET. This is now reflected as best I can in my calculations. Basically I do this by comparing the difference between the absolute maximum and hourly maximum at nearby SYNOP stations - e.g. for Pershore College I use Pershore obviously and for Stonyhurst I use Rostherne as that is the closest suitable station.

This change does not make much of a difference because the understated maximums by day are partly offset by understated minimums at night. However, at least at this time of year, the understatement of the maximums is the bigger figure.

So with this adjustment and taking into account the 21.78C figure from today I calculate the CET is currently at 19.07C.

The CET is expected to rise to 19.24C by the 27th which is the peak. However, much cooler conditions thereafter mean that my estimate of the final CET is currently 19.03C. So we still are not guaranteed to finish above 19C.

That said the actual returns over the next four days will I am sure be higher than the figures I am using. But that will probably only add about 0.1C. So at this point I think 19.1 - 19.2C is the best we are likely to do.

The only way we can reach 19.5C is if the hot conditions of this week continue right through to the end of the month which seems highly unlikely.

We can rule out 20C at this point. Zero chance of getting there now. I also rule out 19.7C. Minimal chance of seeing that even if the hot conditions continue. Outside chance of getting to 19.5C if the current model output is wrong for Saturday onwards. If the current output verifies, zero chance of getting to 19.5C.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming