Thanks GW.

My calculation based on current output would see the CET finishing on 19.54c and based on ECM guidance.

As we all know though these calculations are based on raw data and does allow for potential underplaying of daytime maxes.

Its going to be a close one IMO.

With the adjustments then that’s around 19.2C.

Met Office CET down again to 19.2 (18.8/9) this morning.

Met Office Hadley      19.2c.    Anomaly   3,3c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                   19.29c   Anomaly   2.83c

Netweather                19.64c   Anomaly   3.15c

Alton                       19.5c      Anomaly   1.2c

Canvey island 20.4c     Anomaly   1.46c

Cheadle Hulme 19.8c   Anomaly   2.6c

Clevedon Weather 20.8c   Anomaly   2.32c

Darwen                    20,3c    Anomaly   1.6c

Hexam                     17.9c    Anomaly   1.6c

Mount Sorrel            19.7c     Anomaly   2.02c

Mansfield Woodhouse 18,9c   Anomaly  0.9c

Peasedown St John  20.44c  Anomaly  1.9c

Treviskey Redruth 18.1c  Anomaly  0.2c.

Mean Of 10 Stations 19.58c.     

The current CET figure of 19.2C should stabilise over the weekend and then gradually move up through next week, given the latest forecasts and the possibility of an air flow between S and E.

EDIT: Latest GFS run would support a strong finish to the CET figure.

At the very least, July 2018 will become the fourth member of a very exclusive club: the 19-degree summer months!

I assume Kevin’s index is tumbling with the crap weather Manchester has been experiencing the last couple of days.

Yes, Kev’s index will be taking a knock and I’d be interested how yours does. I do wish there was something similar available for other areas. 

Latest calculations suggest that a cooler final few days of the month could push the CET below 19C. Latest estimate is 18.95C. Nothing nailed on yet in terms of exceeding 19C. I still think we will end up the right side of 19C but probably not by much.

A lot of talk implies daytime maxs of 30 to 32 for much of the rest of the month. I would have thought that 19.0C or more is almost nailed on.

Met Office Hadley     19.2c.   Anomaly   3.2c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                  19.28c  Anomaly   2.83c.

Netweather               19.63c  Anomaly   3.13c.

Mansfield Woodhouse 18.9c   Anomaly  0.9c.

Peasedown St John 21.83c  Anomaly  2.99c.

10 Station Mean 19.72c.        

We shall see. I don't see many 30C+ temperatures outside of eastern areas. That would suggest only 1 CET station (Rothamsted) is likely to see 30C+ on more than the odd day. Stonyhurst in particular looks much cooler generally and I don't think most people are factoring this in properly. Too much SE bias as is often the case I fear.

This has probably been posted somewhere, but where are the CET stations?

Rothamsted Park in Herts, Great Malvern in Worcestershire, and Stonyhurst on the Lancashire plain inland from Blackpool. 2 of the 3 are in Western England so the CET always does better in summer Easterlies.

Thanks. For some reason I always thought there were more than that.

That is actually not correct. Great Malvern was replaced many years ago. Pershore College is the current station in that area.

What doesn't make sense to me is the CET station close to Blackpool, in Lancashire.

Lancashire isn't in Central England. It is in NW England. Doesn't make any sense to me at all. I've always had my doubts about the veracity of the CET data and this just confirms my doubts.

I think Philip Eden uses different stations but that is a much shorter running series. 

Ah thanks. That’s good because Pershore appears on the automatic read outs and Malvern doesn’t. So I use Pershore as the proxy anyway.

Today looks like giving us 25-27C at Rothamsted and Pershore and a furnace-like 19C at Stonyhurst.

I take it to mean that if you construct a triangle between Pershore College Worcs, Rothamsted Herts and Stonyhurst Lancs then the "centre of gravity" is Central England

You would get some strange results if you just had 1 reading in Birmingham (say) as all the local vagaries of particular weather in that one area would come through rather than the average over a wider area

The Late Philip Eden continued to measure the so called "Manley CET" which he based on the original choice of stations which were nearby the current Met Office ones as I recall and published monthly discrepancies. These differences were by and large insignificant but the odd month used to have somewhat larger ones

Rothamsted isn't in Central England either, it's in southern England.