GW did ask at the beginning of this thread if anyone was brave enough to go for 20c.  Could be he who dares, wins!  But, whether the models downgrade or not now, it shows that your guess really is possible!  

Thanks! I did base my 'guess' on the possibility that, at some point during the month, there might be a significant heatwave. If this does happen next week, then I may have guessed nearer to right than wrong!

And mine is always ‘a guess’!  

Met Office Hadley        19.4c.    Anomaly     3.4c   Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     19.34c    Anomalu     2.88c

Netweather                  19.69c    Anomaly     3.2c

Cheadle Hulme             20.1c      Anomaly     2.9c

Hexam                         18.2c     Anomaly      1.9c

Mansfield Woodhouse  19.0c    Anomaly   1.0c

Peasedown St John  20.18  Anomaly 1.64c.

10 Station Mean  = 19.60c.

Pretty well the whole of next week is set to be scorching - so I can see 19.5C without too much difficulty. That means you and I have gone 1.0C too low.

Incredible beacuse 18.5C is by no means a cool month.

Just imagine if we did end of with a July CET of 19.5c.

That would mean we need 17.7c or greater in August to take the prize off 1976 ! 

Possible ? Yes. 

To even average 20c per day from now would only mean 25 max and 15 mins.  So it’s still possible we could beat the record!  

Met Office Hadley      19.3c.   Anomaly   3.4c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                   19.35c   Anomaly   2.89c

Netweather                19.69c   Anomaly   3.2c

Cheadle Hulme  20.0c   Anomaly  2.8c

Clevedon Weather 20.9c  Anomaly   2.8c

Hexam                      18.0c     Anomaly     1.7c

Mansfield Woodhouse  18.9c.   Anomaly     0.9c

Peasedown St John  21.67c   Anomaly  3.13c

10 Station mean  = 19.79c.  

Amazing - what do we say. This August looks like being a hot one. How about 19.0C for this August. That would be two consecutive summer months with a CET of 19 or more. Whose up for that one?

The winter equivalent is two consecutive months with a sub zero CET in my opinion.

Looking through the CET monthly series, two consecutive months of 19.0C or more has never happened before.

Of course that doesn't mean to say that it can't happen! And if it did happen this year, with a June figure of 16.1C, the CET summer series record held by 1976 of 17.77C will be smashed to pieces. 

I just can’t see July getting under 19c now and it may not even go lower than it currently stands. 

I assume the “real” CET after the inevitable downward adjustments is probably about 19.0C. Today will take it lower, perhaps 18.8 or 18.9.

To beat 19 we’d need seriously warm/hot weather throughout England over the next week and a half, including the West. That means Stoneyhurst recording much better than the 10C minima and 21C maxima it’s managed this week. With a plumevtype scenario and heat concentrated in the SE I’m sceptical we could get there. I do think 18C+ is nailed on now though.

It would be disappointing if the CET did not reach at least 19.0C. However, as you point out, the 'vagaries' (if I can put it that way) may just well spoil the party. 

Hello Caz, I think we want the low pressure to evolve a little bit further west than currently indicated by the models. There is just the feeling that things are slipping a little as we get closer to next week. Hope I'm wrong though!

But that has happened- four times, I think? 1879 and the three coldest winters on record. Two 19s has not happened- there are barely any 19s in the series. It really would be a stir.

My calculations have the CET at 18.82C including today.

Final figure for July is currently estimated at 19.09C.

So by no means certain at this stage that the CET will finish above 19C. But I would say that the likelihood is more than 50%.

August has been a let down so many times recently, including most memorably in 2006 when it was sandwiched between a record breaking hot July and September (which was actually quite a bit warmer even in absolute terms). I really think 20th July is a bit early to be talking it up ! But at the same time you could argue a hot one is over due.

IIRC the steaming summer of 2006 (which this one is so far resembling closely)  ended around July 28th (following some torrential downpours in my area which were really quite memorable and caused flash floods ) only to resume in the first week of September!

After reading a few of these I might bottle it and not go for a 19.0C for August. But I know one thing -I'll go for a high 18 of sorts.

Thanks GW.

Not much chance of getting a 20C CET month or beating July 2006 then?

I don’t think so. While there will be some very high temperatures at times over the next 10 days, the really high figures over 32C are likely to be confined to the far SE which is well outside the CET area. So I think we will end up below 19.5C even if there are some very high temperatures next week. Unless the serious heat spreads further west and north I don’t see this being a record breaking month.

The CET is really a WET. You need hot weather in Stonyhurst and Malvern, and that means West-biased heat with an Easterly flow.

The latest runs are showing some hot days next week with warm nights. ECM is also hinting at an easterly component toward the end of the month. I think that, even with the CET stations, the CET figure should be bolstered quite strongly as we go through next week.

My money is still on a CET for July of at least 19.0C. If this figure were achieved, then we would need at least 18.3C in August to beat the  warmest summer in the CET series of 17.77C in 1976!

Here is a reminder of the Top Five summers in the CET series:

1) 1976 17.77

2) 1826 17.60

3) 1995 17.37

4) 2003 17.33

5) 2006 17.23

 Can the summer of 2018 at least make an entry into the Top Five?

Yes. We need to keep westerly influences away from the CET area as they hammer the night-time temperatures. We need to see that +10c (850Hpa) isotherm spreading westwards to the Welsh border regularly and keep air masses in the E-S quadrant.

We’re all singing from the same hymn sheet then!  

I really think, from my perspective, this summer deserves to be a record breaker in some way.  Although it’s unlikely we’ll beat the July 2006 CET record, we could beat the summer 1976 record and that would be something special.   

It’s all eyes to the West then!