It's going to be interesting to see if we do go unsettled mid month and how long its lasts. A real test for the models. Looks set fair for the next 8 to 10 days though.

 

Tipping point remains around 15th July IMO

Bearing in mind the June Monsoon never materialised it remains in the balance for me.

Would be nice to get a shot at the furnace but no sign of intense heat at present 

GFS in recent days has overcooked the shower risk. I remember seeing a discussion a few days ago about how much rain there would be this week. ICON and Arpege were both much nearer the mark than GFS. Having said that I've been in St Mawes, Cornwall this week and yesterday it was cool, quite windy and very wet. Didn't feel like the UK was enjoying the best start to summer since 1976.

Off topic - I am over the water from St. Mawes, and have been off work due to a recent emergency op for the past 2 weeks. To be fair, the weather has been amazing during this period, to the point I was actually feeling guilty for being in recovery during it!

This week I returned back to work, and yes it has been hit and miss, wet at times, and not so good. That said, the days rain yesterday was much needed and received!

2nd weekend in June down here I was participating in an ultra marathon that was brutal because of the extreme heat and sun. And this kind of stayed. This week has been the only diversion from that weather there has been since June. Sorry Brian, you chose the wrong week! 😁

In many years I have not known such a sustainable period of warmth, clear weather here. 

 

ECM delays the breakdown to day 10 again pushed back to 16th July now.

 

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Arpege going for 35C this Sunday:

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ECM delays the breakdown to day 10 again pushed back to 16th July now.

 

As expected because that what we suffered before during poor summers that unsettled breakdown to settled weather never come below 10 days range,  Make a change and hope to see this continuing.   I booked 4 weeks off from next weekend onward mainly due to moving house so need lot of settled days to move stuff around.

Arpege going for 35C this Sunday:

Would be a record 23C range from 12C uppers with 35C max somewhere, it show the drier the ground is the range from uppers to ground surface become more further apart than normal 15C range.  What about Monday as I am off?  At least everyone is off on Sunday and should see all beaches packed with low 30's on the south coast.

Day 9 ECM means nothing to alarming perhaps no heatwave but above average temps and little rain. I think some are getting overly worried for nothing. 

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

 

Indeed. To get a summer with pretty much no unsettled breaks is virtually impossible, if I'm honest. Even 1976 and 1995 had some cooler and unsettled periods at times. Low-20s and the odd shower is still not bad... have we really become that used to warmth and dryness?

19 July 1976: low pressure over the UK:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976071900_1.png

4 July 1995: northerly winds and low pressure heading down the North Sea:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1995/noaa/NOAA_1_1995070400_1.png

Anyway this morning's runs haven't really changed much. GFS keeping us pleasantly warm with high pressure not too far away. ECM threatens to bring the Atlantic in by day 9, but never really gets anywhere at this stage:

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Good ridging.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

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Indeed. To get a summer with pretty much no unsettled breaks is virtually impossible, if I'm honest. Even 1976 and 1995 had some cooler and unsettled periods at times. Low-20s and the odd shower is still not bad... have we really become that used to warmth and dryness?

19 July 1976: low pressure over the UK:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976071900_1.png

4 July 1995: northerly winds and low pressure heading down the North Sea:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1995/noaa/NOAA_1_1995070400_1.png

Anyway this morning's runs haven't really changed much. GFS keeping us pleasantly warm with high pressure not too far away. ECM threatens to bring the Atlantic in by day 9, but never really gets anywhere at this stage:

I think we’ve just got used to the weather breaking up when the schools do!  

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My view this morning is that the signal for a breakdown has weakened. 

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My view this morning is that the signal for a breakdown has weakened. 

I would agree with that  GFS does still end up with a trough parked over Britain, but it seems to be getting pushed further out into the future.

I would still like to see a proper burst of 20C+ uppers at some stage, but in our location it seems that you can only get this with an approaching low that inevitably leads to a breakdown. So it can wait another few weeks :)

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I would agree with that  GFS does still end up with a trough parked over Britain, but it seems to be getting pushed further out into the future.

I would still like to see a proper burst of 20C+ uppers at some stage, but in our location it seems that you can only get this with an approaching low that inevitably leads to a breakdown. So it can wait another few weeks :)

Yes let's have our Spanish plume in September after another 7-8 weeks of this.

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Arpege going for 35C this Sunday:

Only 34 shown there though Brian.

Never the less we are still in an incredibly prolonged spell of above average temps and very below average rainfall.

It’s an unusual pattern. I’ll take warm and dry for months on end over hot & rainy for a few days.

Only 34 shown there though Brian.

Never the less we are still in an incredibly prolonged spell of above average temps and very below average rainfall.

It’s an unusual pattern. I’ll take warm and dry for months on end over hot & rainy for a few days.

Except for the 35

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06z both better and worse than 00z. It ends with a trough parked over us ready for the school holidays, but gives some warmer weather on the way there.

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Only 34 shown there though Brian.

Never the less we are still in an incredibly prolonged spell of above average temps and very below average rainfall.

It’s an unusual pattern. I’ll take warm and dry for months on end over hot & rainy for a few days.

That plot shows 35C.

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Brilliant GFS out to day 8-9. The breakdown pushed back yet again.
Maybe not quite so hot, but definitely mostly dry. Summer 2018 keeps on giving.

It starts going pear shaped at day 10 - but this keeps getting pushed back to day 10 and beyond.

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Excuse the focus on a hypothetical FI chart, but 12z GFS raises the possibility of a low trying to push into a Scandy block. What’s the betting that the high will be more stubborn than forecast and the low will ease away to the SW? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_225_1.png

I’m still not yet convinced of a meaningful breakdown. In the reliable timeframe, the dry spell continues. 

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Been keeping an eye on the models and it seems any breakdown doesn't make it past about 9-10 days out. Things cool slightly after this weekend but with uppers often close to 10c @ 850 it's still likely to be mid to high 20's for many for the foreseeable future. I'd also not be surprised to see another feed of hotter air at some point - there's got to be a chance that any attempt at a low pressure incursion just serves to drag up more hot air with high pressure not being dislodged.

Personally I'm thoroughly fed up with the heat but I'm aware that puts me very much in the minority

I imagine the GFS ens when they come out will back up the last few sets and confirm it's looking largely settled and very warm to hot, with a chance of cooler and more unsettled weather from circa 15-16th. Not sure I'd go with it being a high chance though.

Be interesting to see the ECM later although the ens would be of more value than the Op in terms of FI pattern.

 

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Excuse the focus on a hypothetical FI chart, but 12z GFS raises the possibility of a low trying to push into a Scandy block. What’s the betting that the high will be more stubborn than forecast and the low will ease away to the SW? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_225_1.png

I’m still not yet convinced of a meaningful breakdown. In the reliable timeframe, the dry spell continues. 

My only concern is the considerable change in today's UKMO long ranger. The models aren't showing yet what UKMO are saying, but I sit up and take notice of their longer range outlook.

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