The Weather Outlook

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redmoons
19 June 2018 09:38:00
Now up to 0.9mm from Sundays light rain.
P+ve Giant
19 June 2018 11:10:26

2mm overnight, total now at 19.7mm. 


John.
Bolty
19 June 2018 11:11:06
Just 9.7mm to the end of the 18th.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

johncs2016
20 June 2018 06:57:46

As the rest of the UK wonders what on Earth has happened to all of the rain which they could do with getting to alleviate any potential drought fears, they only need to look at this part of the world when I am, to get an answer to that question.

In a really incredible turn of events, a total of 16.4 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during last night along with 6.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. That makes yesterday, the wettest day of the summer so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank, and the third wettest day of the year so far at that station.

In addition to that, a further 14.4 mm of rain has been recorded for today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 6am this morning according to SEPA whereas a really staggering total of 25.4 mm of rain has been recorded for today so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh at 7am this morning according to the usual sources at weathercast.co.uk. That makes today, both the wettest day of the summer and the wettest day of 2018 so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

Within that, the highest hourly rates were 8.4 mm between 11pm and midnight at Edinburgh Gogarbank, and 8.4 mm between midnight and 1am at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, so there has been some real torrential downpours during the night. That rain has now just started to clear away as I write but as some of that has fallen during the last hour, what I have reported so far for today, is unlikely to be today's final totals.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that now takes this month's total so far to 52.6 mm, the total for this summer so far to 52.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 320.8 mm as at 6am this morning. With just 10 days left of this month including today, just another 8.9 mm of rain needs to fall between now and the end of the month in order to make this month wetter than average according to the actual rainfall amounts at that station, and just another 3 official rain days are needed between now and the end of the month in order to make this month wetter than average according to the number of official rain days.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that now takes this month's total so far to 48.8 mm, the total for this summer so far to 48.8 mm and the total for this year so far to 320.0 mm as at 7am this morning. With just 10 days left of this month including today, just another 12.5 mm of rain needs to fall between now and the end of the month in order to make this month wetter than average according to the actual rainfall amounts at that station, and just another 3 official rain days are needed between now and the end of the month in order to make this month wetter than average according to the number of official rain days.

If the forecast models are right, we are not likely to see any more significant rainfall for quite a long time and if that ends up being the case, those above requirements for this month to end up being wetter than average won't be met. However, that is only what the models are saying and in the world of weather, what the models are saying tends a lot of the time, to not be how it all works out in the end over the time period which is coved by those models. That therefore makes things very interesting indeed because as a result of what has just happened, this month (and the start of this summer as a result) is suddenly not looking so dry after all in this part of the world.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
20 June 2018 17:40:26
With all of the missing data for Edinburgh Gogarbank having now come through, I can now correct what I reported above, as well as giving a further update from that. In order to maintain consistency as well, all of this following data is from weathercast.co.uk.

In the end, a total of 7.4 mm of rain fell at Edinburgh Gogarbank during last night, along with 6.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

In addition to that, a further 26.4 mm of rain has been recorded for today so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 6pm this evening along with 27.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.

For Edinburgh Gogarbank, that now takes this month's total so far to 55.6 mm, the total for this summer so far to 55.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 323.8 mm as at 6pm this evening.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that now takes this month's total so far to 51.2 mm, the total for this summer so far to 51.2 mm and the total for this year so far to 322.4 mm as at 6pm this evening.

As the rest of today is forecast to be dry, there shouldn't be any further additions to those above totals for now.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Elstevio
20 June 2018 20:57:24
0.2mm overnight. 3.6mm for June so far and looking at the forecast that is it for June!
Aylsham, North Norfolk

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 June 2018 21:36:45
I wonder if any official stations have recorded 0.00mm so far. There are certainly lots of people reporting low single figures.

Poring through the weatheronline history pages the lowest I can find (rounded) month to date are:

Benson: 5mm

Charlwood: 3mm

Bedford: 2mm

Herstmonceux: 2mm

But the site is playing up a bit (I couldn’t get the stats for Heathrow, Shoeburyness, Gravesend for example), and only a small number report daily, so there may be lower ones.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
johncs2016
21 June 2018 06:56:51

It's probably not worth my while posting this, but a total of 0.4 mm of rain fell at around midnight at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, thanks to some showers which were in the vicinity at that time but although that is only a very small amount, it is spread out over two different days.

This means that in the end, a total of 28.0 mm of rain fell at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh during yesterday and in addition to that, 0.2 mm of rain has been recorded for today so far at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh as at 7am this morning.

For the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, that now takes this month's total so far to 51.6 mm, the total for this summer so far to 51.6 mm and the total for this year so far to 322.8 mm as at 7am this morning.

Those overnight showers were not picked up at Edinburgh Gogarbank though which means that the totals for that station remain as they were in my last report with this morning being completely dry so far for a change at that station, as at 7am this morning.

As a reminder, the current totals for Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 7am this morning are 55.6 mm for this month, 55.6 mm for this summer and 323.8 mm for this year.

If the forecast models are correct, the above latest totals for this month appear likely to end up being the final totals for this month in the end, although it is obviously far too early to be completely sure of that just now.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2018 07:29:42

Not a lot here in S Dorset. Apparently we have had just 2% of the average of what we would see. I suspect some of that is precipitation from the sea mist. Very dry even for here.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Hungry Tiger
21 June 2018 19:54:39

I'me beginning to wonder if some places will end this month totally rainless.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



22 June 2018 20:25:51

I'me beginning to wonder if some places will end this month totally rainless.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

It is certainly possible. Many SYNOP stations are only reporting 1% of mean rainfall for June so far

Heathrow 0.4mm

Bournemouth Hurn 0.4mm

Shoreham 0.6mm

Northolt 0.8mm

Kenley 0.8mm

St Catherine's Point 0.8mm

 

KevBrads1
23 June 2018 06:52:53

A real possibility now that June could be the driest summer month for England and Wales since August 1995


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Bolty
23 June 2018 10:00:48
10.9mm to the end of the 22nd. Given the outlook, that could very well be where this month finishes up...
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2018 10:27:38
Great weekend forecast from Tomasz Schafernaker just now: “it’s not going to rain, not even a sprinkle, so you can leave all your things outside overnight without any fear of them getting wet”. Brave.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
John S2
23 June 2018 22:37:35
A quick glance through the last hundred years of the England & Wales Precipitation series shows the lowest 5 Junes for rainfall to be:

1) 1925 - 4.3mm

2) 1921 - 10.3mm

3) 1962 - 17.8mm

4) 1949 - 18.1mm

5) 1976 - 18.7mm

Anyone have any indication how June 2018 might compare on this measure given that it is possible there may be no rain for the remainder of the month?

KevBrads1
24 June 2018 05:44:35

A quick glance through the last hundred years of the England & Wales Precipitation series shows the lowest 5 Junes for rainfall to be:
1) 1925 - 4.3mm
2) 1921 - 10.3mm
3) 1962 - 17.8mm
4) 1949 - 18.1mm
5) 1976 - 18.7mm
Anyone have any indication how June 2018 might compare on this measure given that it is possible there may be no rain for the remainder of the month?

Originally Posted by: John S2 

Driest Junes on record for England and Wales

4.3 1925

10.3 1921

12.4 1826

~15 2018 (up to 21st)

16.5 1868

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Hungry Tiger
24 June 2018 12:02:46

Where are we atm. Obviously totals vary but what is the benchmark figure atm?

 

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



John S2
24 June 2018 20:10:33

Where are we atm. Obviously totals vary but what is the benchmark figure atm? 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I understood Kev Brads' reply to mean that 15mm was the current benchmark figure for England & Wales in 2018.

P+ve Giant
25 June 2018 00:40:11

Going to tempt fate and state that my final total is 20.4mm, after the last measurable rainfall of 0.7mm on the 20th. Roughly 30% of the local average and 17.7mm of that fell in the 24hrs of the 16th. Of course I will be back to eat humble pie if the wx breaks before the end of the month 


John.
Hungry Tiger
25 June 2018 13:12:09

 

I understood Kev Brads' reply to mean that 15mm was the current benchmark figure for England & Wales in 2018.

Originally Posted by: John S2 

I see - I know one thing's for certain. It's been one heck of a lot less than that in my area. More like 2 or 3 m.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



KevBrads1
25 June 2018 18:12:13

Driest summer months on record for England and Wales (mm)

 4.3 June 1925

 8.2 July 1825

 9.1 July 1800, August 1995 

 10.3 June 1921

 12.4 June 1826

 14.4 August 1947

 15.0 August 1940 

~ 15    June 2018

 16.5 June 1868

 17.8 June 1962

 18.1 June 1949 

 18.7 June 1794, June 1976

  19.4  June 1923


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

ARTzeman
28 June 2018 11:42:43

 6.6mm is my total to date.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Tim A
28 June 2018 11:59:35
8mm here, nothing recently.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Hungry Tiger
28 June 2018 14:30:37

Looking at those figures this is the driest June since 1921


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Hungry Tiger
28 June 2018 14:31:37

Manchester summer index is doing well. Sorry to go OT.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



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